That migration is happening in cities all over the Southeast.Quote:
Originally Posted by warthog
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That migration is happening in cities all over the Southeast.Quote:
Originally Posted by warthog
One of you dude with the 300 level courses on your resume wanna explain to me why a decrease in demand causes inflation?
What I'm seeing is cost push inflation causing everyone to test their pricing power and guess what? Everyone has more than they thought, from labor to housing to consumables. How much of it is sticky and and much of it isn't is the big guess.
You only need econ 101 to explain it. Supply and demand. The supply side is so jacked right now, that decreased demand is minimal. So supply < demand = higher prices. Doesn't help when you inject a few trillion via the CARES act, and then the Dems put another trillion in Fed UE benefits.Quote:
Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles
The worm will turn eventually. Could be a very big worm too.
Where are you seeing a decrease in demand?
Crypto market is a couple trillion now, stock market is up trillions, real estate up trillions…
It was talked about up thread. You guys at the 101 level should refresh your memory of the difference between the demand curve and the quality demanded. Anywho...it doesn't matter. No matter what business you are in, charge more and ask your boss to pay more. Move out of cash and into assets and cross your fingers that you have enough left over for a new bike and a vacation.Quote:
Originally Posted by wooley12
Decrease in demand would be the logical response to higher prices--but the usual American response is to buy frantically--"better get mine while I can". No one ever got rich buying high and selling low but we keep trying.
"Wealth Effect"
"Too many dollars chasing too few goods"
That should keep you busy while I go overcharge for my services.
You say malinvestment like it’s a bad thing!Quote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
Clearly quality is the fault of the poors and extended ue.
False, that is "decrease in quantity demanded"...Quote:
Originally Posted by old goat
Add "price elasticity of demand" to the list. I'm sure you local community college would let you audit the class.
only when it’s poor people buying things. Neighbors dropping $100-200k on vanity remodels to Foggy types or landscaping that return nothing is AOK.Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyCarter
Uhhh, it’s called trickle down! Noblesse oblige and all that.Quote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
We don't have low aggregate demand right now. Aggregate demand is much higher now than a year ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles
Don't try to think about macro by adding up little bits and pieces. You need to think about aggregates.
Google some basic IS-LM if you want a comprehensible yet organized way to think about this stuff.
Sent from my Pixel 5a using Tapatalk
There does seem to be a lot of trickle down these days. It's all speculative though.Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyCarter
I'm a Hicks Hansen guy. I agree with you regarding the aggregate demand curve moving up and the aggregate supply curve moving down with inelastic quantity demanded. That's now you get what we got....I really don't care about the classic economics but I do care when people just want to make shit up.Quote:
We don't have low aggregate demand right now. Aggregate demand is much higher now than a year ago.
Don't try to think about macro by adding up little bits and pieces. You need to think about aggregates.
Google some basic IS-LM if you want a comprehensible yet organized way to think about this stuff.
To me, the root problems are at the regulator and oversight level but I'm not a public policy guy and I'm no smarter nor do I have any great answers...just a regular guy hammering on the keyboard.
you could say “look at port container volume”. Which isn’t everything, but it’s a lot more of something.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirshredalot
us inflation “debate” is mostly people looking to justify their priors though. Inflation is largely global right now.
Yeah. Nice concepts. I probably used them in my one hour oral final in my MBA level macro class. Then I lived a life experiencing it for 40+ years in a consumer goods career. So I don't want to search "upthread". Where has demand gone down? C'mon, don't be a dick. Tell ole Wolley.Quote:
Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles
I thought this was a pretty good overview of current inflation issues- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AODfsBMGzGQ&t=2526s
Here's a direct link to the inflation topic (can't post a video to the exact segment)- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AODfsBMGzGQ&t=2526s
Chamath? How many tens of million did that piece of shit make off of spac frauds?
Not to mention - a lot of corporate guidance in quarterly and annual reporting indicate they're using this constrained environment to retool how they build and price to make fewer units and hold margin (GM is a good example). As there's not enough material supply in many cases for people to push volume/price wars, they're just harvesting profit as the whole market holds their margin. As someone who's done some vendor deals in technology lately, even there people are getting much tougher compared to in the past, as they usually have the funding to weather the storm and they'd rather hold as a high-margin product than flood a segment with cheap deals.
As it's not just material but labor that's often constrained as well, you're also incented to do fewer, more expensive deals to carry your fixed costs as you can't reliably source workers to scale affordably as you would want to.
i see an odd lack of consumer rights discussions abound
nearly every old money company i’ve dealt with over my career attempts to or does price fix
opec isn’t a new cartel, and maybe 6% is too much commission on a house at this point
industry needs to change with the rest of the world if we want sustainable process, and they won’t choose to
Yep, it's why I rather favor a pollution calc tax - build dirty? pay lots of tax. A lot of people just see money and won't act unless it's for profit. A lot of price fixing is also informal. Like in insurance industry, rate filings are relatively public, so if you see your competitors holding firm or raising rates, you do it too to make more money unless you have big market share goals.Quote:
Originally Posted by shroom
Yep. I am seeing this in several mfg. sectors for commercial vehicles. Can't get enough qualified or semi-qualified machinists, welders, or assembly line folks. Factories are running below 90% capacity all because they lack the trained work force. So, what do the mfg. do? They build more of the higher end models, with the higher margins. And less of the lower end, no frills models with the lower margins.Quote:
Originally Posted by schuss
History rhymes.
https://thereformedbroker.com/2021/1...ded-last-time/
Maybe the world is ending if Benny is saying, be calm all will work out shortly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Post WWI/Pandemic inflation explained.
Wikipedia
"Severe hyperinflation in Europe took place over production in North America. This was a brief but very sharp recession and was caused by the end of wartime production, along with an influx of labor from returning troops. This, in turn, caused high unemployment."
Seems Apples to Oranges. Both are fruit.
By all accounts we are overdue for the next recession. Will it be right after the Fed stops pumping billions a month into QE?Quote:
Originally Posted by wooley12
That action would reduce the supply (money). That would reduce consumer spending? Your guess is as good as mine.
Recession def. - Your neighbor loses job.
Depression def. - You lose your job.
When I was a rep in a highly elastic consumer product, woman's clothing, I saw smaller orders about 3-6 months before the word "Recession" got into morning newspaper.
After 9-11, in one of his first addresses to the public, the president told Americans that a patriotic action they could take for the country is the go the the mall and but stuff.
Well, it's ending for all of us, eventually, but, yeah, for me, a bit sooner than most.Quote:
Originally Posted by neufox47
Um, reparations and the gold standard.Quote:
Originally Posted by wooley12
That inflation started well before the flu pandemic. It is arguable how much the pandemic contributed. The govt had fewer means to understand and mitigate the business cycle. I could still happen. Or not. (There was a clever ad for some investment firm a few years ago. The interviewer asks some older, esteemed economist from someplace like Harvard--"Can you tell when the current bull market will end and when we should switch from stocks to bonds? " "No." end of ad.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Highly elastic consumer product--women's clothing. You sold pants to fat women?Quote:
Originally Posted by wooley12
The inflation where?
I had the stitched crease double knit pull on pant market cornered. All the way up to a 60" waist. Made in Medford MA and the perfect pant for church or the Grange meeting. They retailed for $15 then. That would be $50.35 today. Same pant today from Asia, $24.99.
I can only imagine what the people in Asia who make them think about American women and their 60 inch waists.Quote:
Originally Posted by wooley12
Excellent piece about real inflation that has been devastating the middle and lower classes for decades.
https://www.profgalloway.com/inflated/
"The best things in my life — kids who made headslist this semester, a supportive mate, and financial security that (generally) enables me to do whatever I want, whenever I want — are a function of one thing: 74. Specifically, in the eighties, UCLA had an acceptance rate of 74%. I (no joke) had to apply twice. I was the first person on either side of my family to graduate from high school, much less get to attend amazing institutions for undergraduate and graduate degrees. The cost? $7,000 (total) in tuition for a BA and an MBA.
In addition, I was presented this opportunity as a function of being good, not great … much less remarkable. Higher ed catalyzed an upward spiral of prosperity for me and my family that’s been good for the commonwealth — we love America and are good citizens.
Today the acceptance rate at UCLA is 12%. Since I graduated, the number of graduating high school seniors in California has grown nearly twice as fast as the number of undergraduate seats at UCLA. To its credit, the UC system has announced plans to add 20,000 more seats to the system by 2030."
My first pair of skis, boots and poles cost about $36 in the 1955 Sears catalog. That would be $375 today with inflation. The premium tech of the day, "Laminated" skis, cost more.
The 1955 gear was a lot more expensive if you factor in hospital bills.Quote:
Originally Posted by wooley12
Did you have a silk neckerchief to wear like an ascot under your ski sweater?Quote:
Originally Posted by wooley12