http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...5&d=1201572606
zoinks....
Printable View
Currently nuking at 1-2"/ hour
That is what happens when you get a stand-up cold front with an awesome baroclinic structure.Quote:
Originally Posted by funkendrenchman
Yeah, that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
Or some snow.
Exactly what I was thinking. Uh-huh. I'm glad you're here to explain all the technical weather stuff. I see snow. I ski. I get happy when NOAA says there will be snow, but I can't explain it. Where did you learn all your weather knowledge? Reading books on your own or classes? Any books you recommend if that's the case?Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
I started following and learning about weather roughly four and half years ago when I started backcountry skiing. I believe strongly in order to understand the dynamics of the snowpack, you need to understand where the snow comes from.Quote:
Originally Posted by jon turner
All of the stuff I learned came from reading different forecasts (I don't really attempt to read the actual computer models, but rather rely on the professional's prognostications).
I found that a great way to learn is to open the NOAA forecast discussions in one window and google in another window. As you read the forecast and don't understand what they are talking about, just google it. It will take some time, but you'll come to understand the weather patterns in the state.
I've provided links to most of the tools I use to make my own analysis in the Snow Conditions thread in the avy forum.
durrrrrr. where do you think the snow comes from? :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Z
In this case, funken sees the really heavy snowfall because unlike the past few systems, this system is coming in with a very strong and well defined cold front. Thus, there is a baroclinicity (a change in temperature), these drastic changes in atmospheric temperatures create instability, which lead to heavier snowfall (think about thunderstorms during the spring and monsoon season). This is overly simplified, but hopefully gives you an idea.
I love talking and discussing weather. But the last thing I do is forecast. That is way way way way way way way over my head. I just like to take the knowledge that is out there, synthesize it, and have an idea about what the forecasters are talking about and temper the butthurt whining expectations of montanaskier;)
Never seen it as bad as it is now. CRAZY WINDY, can't tell if it is dumping or just blowing all the snow on the ground around. Can't see the house across the street, went next door to tell my neighbor something and my tracks were filled in when I went back across the street....like 2 minutes. Wind is ridiculous right now.
Yeah, it just kicked up like crazy here in north Denver.
I washed my Jeep for all of you people that can take tomorrow off.
I like Guinness...
I heart this pattern.
Yesterday was amazing seeing the cold front pass thru Vail. It was just barely snowing all morning and no wind. All of a sudden, the temp dropped like 15 degrees in 15 min, wind started howling and some of the hardest snow I have ever seen started dumping. An hour later, it was all over.
SHHHhhhhhhhh.....
SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. WINDY. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3 INCHES.
HIGHS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS 4 BELOW TO 14 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION 6 TO 12 INCHES. LOWS 5 TO
15. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
What we really could use right at this particular moment is an epic ABasinStone dummmmmpage.
Anyone in the Vail area able to give real time update about 8 tonight?
Dopplers are not telling much for this storm.
Monarch is looking to get hammered.
The Aspen area has picked up another 4" or so in town this evening.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rideski
Thanks. Interesting how it does not show on the doppler, I've been watching all night. The satellite has been looking good. And refreshing noaa they keep saying it is snowing lightly. Pretty interesting that over the course of the evening, noaa changed the predicted overnight total up and down at least three times.
Looks like tomorrow is on.
The conditions are pretty much all-time, everywhere. Except of course, for the front range. Yet we deal with retarded traffic and epic winds all winter. What gives? Is it the amount of traffic and greenhouse bullshit on I70 that kills the storms? Learn me, rontele. Why does every single storm just die around Vail or Aspen while we get left with 157mph winds?
Let's just say im over it. Our snowpack is absolute shit, like always. If I never ski another day in Summit County that'd be just fine.
hate over.
keystone has installed a larger donut that now encompasses all of summit county
there's another thing. How come there is no beetlekill in SW CO? I'd put my money on the amount of cars and pollution coming up i70. Thought about this on my way back from Crested Butte this weekend. As it fucking PUKED the whole time.Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankZappa
Seems interrelated to me. I don't know how. It just does.
IMO this is two things:Quote:
Originally Posted by Z
different types of trees
not as bad a drought
x2 - Summit and front range are in rain shadows. precip dumps on the westerly ranges and the storms stall out. its warmer down on the front range and cold air from the mountains moves to warm temps = wind. if you've ever skied breck and watch the cloud slowly roll in the valley with a big dump, you know the w/nw flow benefits that area.Quote:
my opinion that it's the way it's been thanks to the prevelant storm track (westerly <monarch, RF valley, Vail>, southwesterlies <CB, SJ's, Taos>) which puts summit in the rain shadows. They need the PacNW flow for least shadow and best orographics.
steamboat gets both sw and nw storms cuz of its position as the divide with no blocking ranges.
as for the beetles, they're attacking overgrown sickly lodgepole pine forest. sw colorado has beautiful aspen and old growth spruce/fir. that shit was all decimated in summit during the mining boom, which happened to a much lesser extent in sw colorado.
the I-70 theory though falls apart when you consider that Grand County is way more decimated than the I-70 corridor.
What you mean the 110" base at Highlands or the 170" base at Wolf Creek? I'm pretty sure we just hit our season total from last year, which wasn't a bad winter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Z
This was in the Leadville paper last week:Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankZappa
"There is no longer much official doubt that the bark beetle will kill all the lodgepole pines in Lake County within the next few years. On Jan. 14, U.S. Forest Service officials announced that they expect all mature lodgepole trees within the state of Colorado to be dead within the next 3-5 years. Once considered to be an issue only in northern Colorado, the pine beetle is now spreading throughout the state, said officials. Lake County was one of six counties identified as having a 'new' epidemic on its hands."
I remember hearing that it was thought that Lake County might not be affected by the beetle too much because of the colder temps at higher elevation, but it looks like that might not be true.
Pine beetles aren't necessarily a bad thing for a forest either. The dead wood can be a fire hazard for nearby communities, but the thinning of the forest to allow new growth can help diversify the forest. The dead wood if allowed to decay can replenish the soil. If the natural processes are allowed to run its course, it is just part of the succession of the forest. It works similar to the action of a forest fire, which there is an argument that our over-suppression of natural fires has hurt the overall health of forests as well.
Im only talking about what CAIC considers the Summit and Front range zones. Seems like we get psyched to get the "tail-end" of storms. F that.Quote:
Originally Posted by funkendrenchman
So Z, you had a good time in Crested Butte and Summit just doesn't seem the same, or what? :wink::biggrin: Those T-ride venues are going to feel like a walk in the park compared to what I was showing you here, so you and D-side go and kill it!!
It's all about the wind direction and CB has been blessed with plenty of W or SW ones this year. NW= the famous donut hole in CB, plenty of snow in the BC, none at the ski area.
Regarding beetle kill, last summer was the first time I saw a few trees here and there in the CB area with brown trees. Not many, but those little fuckers are here, too. Hopefully this winter's prolonged cold temps kill them, as cold winters can. Grand county forests are depressing. The Aspen trees are also sick and diseased- once someone points out the sick ones compared to the healthy ones it becomes pretty obvious. Lots of Aspens in this area will die soon :(
Back to weather conditions- it's snowing, like it always does in Crested Butte :smile: I can barely move, but if I must ski more pow, than I shall.
Wow, bragging about the butte's snow before the winter is even over? You have a short memory for painful winters....which is a good CB trait ;) :D ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by goldenboy
zappa- so much of the kill in grand is in extremely rural parts of the county that pollution just doesn't seem to answer the bill.
Z, other folks in this thread have struck it on the head. SuCo and the Front Range just don't do well out of a WSW flow because there are so many mountain ranges between us and where the moisture upglides into the mountains.Quote:
Originally Posted by Z
The next storm coming in tomorrow will favor the front range/SuCo because it is coming from the NW, which puts those mountains on the leading edge, not the tail of the moisture. As you can imagine, the Front Range also does well out of "upslope" storms because those are the first mountains the moisture meets.
The skiing has been decent at Berthoud, but for the wind. THat being said, the best days I've had this winter are in Aspen, where they are getting demolished.
I remember seeing this in the paper as well. Really piqued my attention. Seems like a scare tactic to me. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure these little buggers will get a few of the trees in Lake County, but killing all Lodgepoles within the next 3-5 years?!? That's just over-exagerations and scare tactics. Today, the forest up here all look healthy: a deep, beautiful green. There aren't even pockets of infestation yet (if I'm wrong, sorry. And please, let me know where in Lake county there are a couple dead Lodgepoles...). The situation in Grand County certainly didn't happen in 3-5 years. I remember when I first started driving to WP from Laramie almost 10 years ago, and you could already see the infestation starting to get a foothold. Every year since then it has just gotten worse and worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by jon turner
Now, as far as the whole pollution=beetle-kill issue, I'm not so sure about this. While I don't doubt your evidence, FZ, all that proves is that the trees have been weakened by the pollution. While this may have some effect on the beetle kill, its certainly not the whole story. As was stated earlier, some of the hardest hit parts of Grand County are pretty rural and away from intense traffic. If anyone has driven from Granby to Rand, you know what I mean: whole mountainsides are red, and that highway is hardly "high-traffic."
Eagle County is very hard hit by the pine beetle epidemic...Red Sandstone area north of Vail especially bad. FS and TOV have partnered to do some logging on parts of Vail mountain above West Vail....not a bad deal, I get free firewood and better tree skiing out of the deal.
More importantly, it's fucking dumping. Again. :D
NWS dropped the SBS in favor a long-term WSW for the north-western slope. Also, expect WFO Bou to hoist the same for the NoCen mtns with their afternoon pkg. Looks like a good couple of days.
Winter Storm Warning hoisted. 18-36 inches by Friday morning. This weekend should be good.
Friday is the day off.... the only time I don't hate my job.
MS- are you going out on Friday? I can make it up there, but I have to be back in Denver by 4:00.
not sure right now, work is crazy to say the least at the moment. I'll let ya know when I know.
Damn. Was thinking about Aspen this weekend, but looking at NOAA's report for the week might have to hit up Vail instead.
Montanaskier, If you don't make it out Friday, we should meet up for turns Saturday.
will definately be out for turns on Sat, Vail or BC. May also do a tour on Sunday.
Actually, I was referring to terrain more than snow. Given the choice between 200" at CB and 400" in Summit- I'll gladly take 200.Quote:
Originally Posted by lemon boy
Apologies hereby extended for my raging case of butte-a-tude. :D
You're such a jerk, GB. :biggrin:Quote:
Originally Posted by goldenboy
Just saw this on the Silverton website. Thought it was worth sharing...
"
Who Likes it Deep?- As we approach 200% of average snowpack the mountain continues to shrink as the snow piles up. The seasonal snow total now exceeds 375". With upper mountain areas remaining untouched for almost all of the winter, the last we checked the upper mountain had a 180" base. That was about 6 feet of snow ago, so we believe it could be very deep on the upper mountain at this time. We are averaging 4 days of sunshine per month, so we haven't even seen the upper mountain very often this year."