Last year was fat. This year may be boneyard. We'll know in April.
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Last year was fat. This year may be boneyard. We'll know in April.
What are we gonna do?Quote:
Originally Posted by byates1
Roadtrip!
YurpQuote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
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Amazing — love the snowfall analysis tied into the weather pattern. Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
Any sense of how those numbers compare for reference to La Niña years — and "normal" seasons?
Skied a bit of due north-facing powder today — better than expected for how dry it has been.
Thanks for that analysis DJ! One other factor for this winter is it is looking like it is going to be very warm globally. Not sure how that will play out locally, but it doesn't sound great to me.
What's average of all years for snowfall in R Bowl?
What was the 1996 aka ninety sick, total snowfall at Rbowl? I was there early December that year and everything was filled in. Alta Chutes were smooth. Then I went to Steamboat in the middle of January. Jeez, they set a record at the time for snowfall in the month of January in Colorado - something like 300 inches on Storm Peak? If they didn't groom some blue trails, it was too deep and not steep enough to barely ski straight down (Sunshine area). And it was my first snowcat trip - back when it was the original Jupiter Jones outfit - priceless.
It was also the year that I bought new K2 Big Kahunas. And they ripped.
WMD! I was thinking about you the other day, wondering how central wyo was treating you. When ya coming over?Quote:
Originally Posted by WMD
The totals used to be easy to figure; now with the new site, some data like this is more complicated. Other stuff easier.
Off the top of my head, I'd say Rbowl averages 425-475 a year.
Ninety Sick, Ninety Heaven.Quote:
Originally Posted by RUBBERDUCK
Got a fuckton in December - 225", 128" in January, 69" in Feb., 78" to finish.
463" during the season with another 80" before opening.
That season was door to door opening and full coverage before opening day.
My first season skiing thru a neck deep drift of snow, just below meet yer maker.
For years, closing day total was recorded on a 2x6 shelf post in the pipechase room at the tram building.
Here's a coupla pics from bitd...
Attachment 476793
Attachment 476794
In '94, Public works was renamed Buildings & Grounds...B&G = PW
The online numbers don't always jibe, which is weird.
‘96/‘97 was my last season. The tram opened first day and it was walk on until the holidays. That December was incredible and it just kept snowing….thanks for the memories DJQuote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
Building on Djongo's post — I used the "board" totals from one post and subtracted out the "in-season" totals.
Very strong -
'15/'16 = 350"
Strong -
'91/'92 = 162" +92" pre-season
'87/'88 = 301" +21" pre-season
Moderate -
'86/'87 = 175" +75" pre-season
'94/'95 = 296" +110" pre-season
'02/'03 = 327"
'09/'10 = 325"
Weak -
'04/'05 = 285"
'06/'07 = 217"
'14/'15 = 238"
I tried to quickly look up some historical data but it looks like the much of the pre-2020 data was wiped from BTAC and some other sources I checked were conflicting. Even the archived reports post-2020 from BTAC seem to have eliminated the daily reporting of snow depth/season-to-date snowfall—bummer!
The scant data we do have above suggests that El Niño years produce below-average snowfall totals. Even though 2 of the 3 "strong"/"very strong" years identified by Djongo are fairly solid for JHMR-season snowfall (compared to other El Niño years), if you factor in the fact that we've had almost no snow so far that is means we are tracking for a sub-400" year.
Of course, things could change and that is a projection from limited data.
I did find 60cm of settled snow at 10,500' the other day — and nice powder skiing.
Thanks for the awesome info!Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
I'll be over at least a few days this winter and I'll give ya a holler so we can meet up and make a few turns! That would be awesome! I may have teenage kids in tow...
Thanks for the awesome info!Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
I'll be over at least a few days this winter and I'll give ya a holler as it would be awesome to meet up and make some turns! I may have teenage boys in tow...
The last few years I've been dealing with injuries but hopefully this year I'm ready to ski a bit harder again.
I was morbidly going to look up avy fatalities on these lean el niño years but haven’t gotten around to it yet.
Djongo - cool analysis and it got me digging into datasets for my region.Quote:
Originally Posted by upallnight
You could say that both previous strong El Niño s had multiple feet of reported preseason snowfall. Since you’ve had almost zero reported preseason snowfall, this strong el nino breaks from the historical “trends” with data size 2, hah! Anything can happen. Think positive thoughts and the pow turns will come :)
I've been trying to not jinx the season by speculating how it's gonna go.
Just general observations.
I've seen enough low seasons to not really care anymore; obviously I want a deep season, but ya can't predict those either.
We just had 3 consecutive La Ninas and 2 were great and one was epically lean. There are just no guarantees, even with a solid trend.
When it snows a lot, I get tunnel vision and it's a blur of pow turns and tram lines.
My second season here was maybe the worst so I got immunized early against low snow angst.
And I bought the add on Ikook pass planning on good snow in places I'd like to visit finally. So, If gas prices would go down, I might be motoring around chasing storms.
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Holla WMD, been a while. Be glad to turn with you and the kids.
I hear ya on that. I spent 8 years of my life living in Kodiak, AK. About a 40% chance you are going to get stuck in Anchorage or Kodiak when your flights get cancelled for 1-3 days because clouds are on the deck.Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
After a few ruined vacations, ruined getting homes, I learned that you can't control the weather and am much more at peace with it. Luckily snow or lack thereof is not tied to my well financial well being...
It is what it is.
Le tits now. (at some point)
My choice of years to spend 5 weeks in Wydaho couldn't have been worse, eh? We still had a great time but I'll be sitting this year out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
Average for JHMR 8250' is 370"Quote:
Originally Posted by upallnight
https://bestsnow.net/
That website sucks but the data is legit and not ski resort marketing #s. I'd assume 8250 is a snotel site (and probably not where JHMR reports from)
If you click the el nino/la nina tab on that site you'll see the historical snowfall for those events too. Jackson sits at 88% of normal during el ninos and 112% of normal during la ninas.
almost too convenient of a statistic…Quote:
Originally Posted by jtran10
Marketing has almost nothing to do with the numbers. Patrol and the snow/avy seniors do the daily reporting from automated study plots.Quote:
Originally Posted by jtran10
'8250 is roughly mid mountain. There's an established station at '8180. Not snotel.
That much numbers crunching always seems to miss the finer details. Probably pretty close tho.
Impossible to read for more than 3 minutes.
Solid answer. This is the good stuff, areas favored by El Nino. Hope it's true for you down there RAhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...fbe71006d7.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by jtran10
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Rendezvous Plot (that DJongo referenced) is at ~9,600. Definitely different stats (=more snow) than 8,250.Quote:
Originally Posted by jtran10
The resort's marketing department seems to have a simple process: pick the higher of the Rendezvous plot or Raymer (Near the Gondi @ 9,360'). The reporting from those stations is automated; anyone can see the data in 15' increments. They are cleared once a day in the morning by patrol.
Can't really game the plots — but picking the better of the two can be gamed. They are often pretty close, but as you can imagine on a big mountain two plots can — and sometimes do — vary by quite a bit.
The "selective" average is around 460 from October 1 to season's end (early April).
Sure, you can game em. Just walk up and sprinkle some snow in the box. Ya think?
Awesome data. That .88, 1.2 is stuck in my head now.
A nice-looking waitress at the trap told me to freeze a trail map. Why not.
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In 15’ increments all night?Quote:
Originally Posted by lindenle
If you have the time lolQuote:
Originally Posted by upallnight
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