Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

nordekette is good peeps.

People may be objecting to what the numbers really mean because the testing and reliability of testing for COVID-19 is all over the map. And sometimes what nordekette types is inaccurate, like the initial number for NYC.

Another bias for simple COVID-19 death stats is te fact that people are much more ready to go to a hospital in those socialist nanny states (.. ;-).. )like Switz or the EU as opposed to the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave where the threat of health cost bankruptcy keeps some significant percentage away.

Like OG wrote:

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Originally Posted by old goat

It's not just the total number of people infected we don't know, it's also the total number of people dying of Covid 19 we don't know.

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Everyone is stressed; that doesn't bring out our best and makes tolerance even harder. fwiw.

I keep trying to figure out how reliable the testing for infection is and how the test differ. The fact that a bunch of the tests are being fast tracked by the feds doesn't fill me with confidence. At least WA state is leveling out new cases.

But I'm also porting several gigbytes of custom OS code to Linux in a custom build environment over RDP having to leverage Linux VMs, so I'm not paying that much attention.

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Originally Posted by Deebased

Cower in Fear scratch that I mean shelter in place

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Cower in fear. As if.
Just trying to not kill people by using a little common sense, dumbass.

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Originally Posted by Dhelihiker

B version of what? I have no guess on the other, whats the point of guessing?

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Each year there are Influenza 'A' strains circulating, with the "A" clades H1N1 and H3N2 dominating. These are roughly 40-60% identity across the HA and NA proteins. Influenza "B" viruses are almost completely different, no more than 15-25% identity to A strains among their HA and NA surface proteins, yet they are still influenza viruses. The FLU vaccine tries to guess at what are the dominant strains and usually includes 2 "A" and 2 "B" strains in the formulation.

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Originally Posted by Buster Highmen

nordekette is good peeps.

People may be objecting to what the numbers really mean because the testing and reliability of testing for COVID-19 is all over the map. And sometimes what nordekette types is inaccurate, like the initial number for NYC.

Everyone is stressed; that doesn't bring out our best and makes tolerance even harder. fwiw.

I keep trying to figure out how reliable the testing for infection is and how the test differ. The fact that a bunch of the tests are being fast tracked by the feds doesn't fill me with confidence. At least WA state is leveling out new cases.

But I'm also porting several gigbytes of custom OS code to Linux in a custom build environment over RDP having to leverage Linux VMs, so I'm not paying that much attention.

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hey there,
i had a fantastic day and been up since 0430((austrian time)before sunrise)) and just spinning new thoughts.
first my numbers are from google and i should run a spreadsheet to eliminate typos.

my conclusion the incentive care hospital in san marino is !!!!!!
singapore doesnt make sence at all. but they are very clean have cameras and surveillance everywhere.
were social distant before social distance was a thing.. dont wanna fuck with sincitycops

everybody new: new york is a clusterfuck and will have the highest deathrate. not only buy the overload on the healthcare system. i guess the general healthiness of the population. farming mountain town person vs NYC person! Still it will be the first place with herd immunity.
you cannot stop this virus it goes faster around the world then Phileas Fogg

another thing came to my mind: those guys protesting with guns are scary
but they are led by fear. i guess they were spraying chlorine on the vegetables - the wifes had to clean the house 24/7 and kids only on playstation. the first month! now they fear turned and they fear financial trouble because they cannot home-office. so they are sitting on a timebomb and cannot buy cheap stocks or cheap real estate.

so the poor going to get hit

another problem are retirement homes, but if you are 93 and locked away with no contact to your family and cannot go out.... everyday could be your last day
and how long will you lockdown retirement homes 3years????

and still not every 90year old is going to die.

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Originally Posted by huckbucket

Why don't you tell me why the graph below matters?

Attachment 326117

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All graphs matter! Open the economy!

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Originally Posted by MultiVerse

Switzerland, a country with an advanced health care system, just did a seroprevalence survey for hard hit Geneva on April 17 and their ratio of unconfirmed-to-confirmed was only 6:1, with 94.5% uninfected, 5.5% infected, and a death rate ten times higher than the flu.


https://translate.google.com/transla...on&prev=search

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and an increase of 2% Week over week. Using the exponential model they'll be at heard immunity by mid-May.

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Originally Posted by old goat

Not quite true. Intubating someone allows higher concentrations of oxygen to reach the lungs than can be delivered by nasal cannula or mask, thus raising the O2 in the blood. Ventilator settings which maintain positive pressure in the airways (PEEP, CPAP) can expand collapsed alveoli and thereby increase oxygen in the blood.
The proper respiratory management of COVID-19 patients is controversial, a work in progress, not the open and shut case you make it out to be.

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but I was told by TGR medical experts that intubation is “jamming a fucking tube down your throat and pumping you full of fucking elephant tranquilizers!” and everything else but that is warm massages and cool cocktails and pleasant breezes through your hospital room and anyone even mentioning the word intubation is the devil.

It’s not that simple to the doctors working in intensive care - why laypeople think it can be boiled down to simple yet inflammatory statements for public consumption would be funny if it wasn’t also potentially harmful.

Some good news on survival chances in today's feed. A Chinese study published at the end of March in the New England Journal of Medicine that suggested only 12.6% of 1,000 people infected with the virus were smokers while the number of smokers in China is around 28%. Maybe now the wife will stop bitching about my habit.

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Originally Posted by subtle plague

All graphs matter! Open the economy!

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Oh that subtle plaque, never fails to make this dentist chuckle.

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Originally Posted by bennymac

but I was told by TGR medical experts that intubation is “jamming a fucking tube down your throat and pumping you full of fucking elephant tranquilizers!”

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Sign me up!

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It’s not that simple to the doctors working in intensive care - why laypeople think it can be boiled down to simple yet inflammatory statements for public consumption would be funny if it wasn’t also potentially harmful.

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Oh now you have to go and ruin that fine fantasy with this down to earth pap. For shame!

Well, as though you didn't know already, we're pretty much fucked for some time. Just watched the mayor of Las Vegas argue with Anderson Cooper on CNN that her town should just open up without any sort of safety plan. It was like watching two people poke each other with sharp sticks. Trump has done it, he's killed thousands in late May/June. Opening up the national parks should kill maybe a thousand alone. I've pulled whatever money I have in equities and stashed it away safely, because it won't be pretty soon. I predict a supermarket looted in 4-3-2-.... By gunpoint, of course.

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Well, as though you didn't know already, we're pretty much fucked for some time. Just watched the mayor of Las Vegas argue with Anderson Cooper on CNN that her town should just open up without any sort of safety plan. It was like watching two people poke each other with sharp sticks. Trump has done it, he's killed thousands in late May/June. Opening up the national parks should kill maybe a thousand alone. I've pulled whatever money I have in equities and stashed it away safely, because it won't be pretty soon. I predict a supermarket looted in 4-3-2-.... By gunpoint, of course.

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That lady looks and sounds batshit insane....Wow.

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Originally Posted by nordekette

hey there,
i had a fantastic day and been up since 0430((austrian time)before sunrise)) and just spinning new thoughts.

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Was great to ski with you; I hope I can get back to Yurp next year. If not, then the year after.

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first my numbers are from google and i should run a spreadsheet to eliminate typos.

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Right, but google does not have enough context, numbers can mean different things. I'm not confident those number are well defined. Math major hangups y'know.

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my conclusion the incentive care hospital in san marino is !!!!!!
singapore doesnt make sence at all. but they are very clean have cameras and surveillance everywhere.
were social distant before social distance was a thing.. dont wanna fuck with sincitycops

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Asian countries have been through this (SARS) and generally have better social consciousness. eg. no phones on the trains in Japan.

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everybody new: new york is a clusterfuck and will have the highest deathrate. not only buy the overload on the healthcare system. i guess the general healthiness of the population. farming mountain town person vs NYC person! Still it will be the first place with herd immunity.
you cannot stop this virus it goes faster around the world then Phileas Fogg

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New Yorkers can be surprisingly fit, but are among the most socially dysfunctional beings on earth, as demonstrated by some. Couple N00 Yawker brashness with population density and it's a heavenly environment for contagion.

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another thing came to my mind: those guys protesting with guns are scary
but they are led by fear. i guess they were spraying chlorine on the vegetables - the wifes had to clean the house 24/7 and kids only on playstation. the first month! now they fear turned and they fear financial trouble because they cannot home-office. so they are sitting on a timebomb and cannot buy cheap stocks or cheap real estate.

so the poor going to get hit

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The poor in the USA are going to get hit hard and the irony lies deep in the Trump and Republicans among them.

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another problem are retirement homes, but if you are 93 and locked away with no contact to your family and cannot go out.... everyday could be your last day
and how long will you lockdown retirement homes 3years????

and still not every 90year old is going to die.

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Incredibly shitty situations. My mom passed in September, I now have no known blood relatives other than my kids.

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Originally Posted by Deebased

and an increase of 2% Week over week. Using the exponential model they'll be at heard immunity by mid-May.

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Stop with the herd immunity. You don't know what you're talking about. First, it's not even clear reaching herd immunity is possible. You don't know how long acquired immunity lasts so your plan just kills more people if the time to reach whatever percentage of infected is greater than the acquired immunity.

Second, herd immunity is S=1/R0. If R0=2.5 the number infected is 60%, if R0=5.7 the number infected is 84%. Those are huge percentages and people aren't going to allow a linear, let alone an exponential increase, up to 80% of the population. The economy will shut down on its own no matter what the government says.

Third, even if the population just allowed the epidemic to wash over them like a wave, that wave doesn't stop with the herd immunity number. It has dynamic momentum. That momentum is called overshoot. It takes time for infected people to develop immunity and they keep infecting people well beyond static herd immunity. The overshoot number is huge for a highly infectious virus like SARS2, something like 30%, so that means you end up with 90% of the population infected.

A herd immunity approach won’t work. It won't stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

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Originally Posted by old goat

An article about blood clotting being one of the major causes of morbidity and death in Covid 19. Very scary shit. Unfortunately, the virus appears to affect the blood clotting and inflammatory chemistry and the interaction between the two, the most poorly understood aspect of human physiology (after how the brain works) despite many decades of study. The article points out how little we know about this disease. It talks about people dying suddenly at home, in addition to the folks dying after weeks on the ventilator.
It's not just the total number of people infected we don't know, it's also the total number of people dying of Covid 19 we don't know.
So anyone (including me) who wants to pontificate about the incidence of infection or the mortality rate should probably STFU.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...s-blood-clots/

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A close friend's parents both came down with COVID about a month ago. Both on ventilators in the ICU. The mother has been out for a week or two and recovering/quarantining at home. The father is not faring well. Was finally off the vent and moving around last week, the same day he has a seizure (ultimately determined to be clot related) and goes back on the vent in the ICU. Still in the ICU I believe.

Is it really the virus directly causing clotting? Or the fact that some patients are stationary in a bed for a month?

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Originally Posted by old goat

Ventilator settings which maintain positive pressure in the airways (PEEP, CPAP) can expand collapsed alveoli and thereby increase oxygen in the blood.

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I hadn't considered that. Thanks for the discourse.

Fuck, I don't even recall writing that earlier post.

> 2000 deaths in Canada, about half of them in old folks homes mostly in Quebec & Ontario and they are calling in the military to help
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coron...orld-1.5539330

Trudeau is letting the provinces set their own agenda for re-openning but he is controling the countries borders

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Originally Posted by nordekette

ok corrected it...
10657 : 8300000 = 0,0012839759

but still


San Marino = 0.00117

Singapore = 0.00000213

NYC = 0.0012839759

Landeck = 0.00031558541

Sweden = 0.00018754841

USA = 0.00013719512

Tirol = 0.00012455198

Switzerland = 0.00017337209

these are just numbers.
in general I leave the thinking for the horses, they got a bigger head

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you can make the numbers dance the way you want if you use them.

using total population, the corona virus is not a threat; but you cannot consider that as not everyone will get it in a population.

so, if you speculate and say 10% will, 10% of 300 million in the usa and the threat looks greater with a 10% infection rate, but then in a normal flu season the entire population is considered at risk, so why it is not now and a rate of 1% infections in the total population is not what they go with on the corona threat; I do not know.

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Originally Posted by XXX-er

Trudeau is letting the provinces set their own agenda for re-openning but he is controling the countries borders

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WTF?????
That seems to actually make sense.

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Originally Posted by SkiCougar

you can make the numbers dance the way you want if you use them.

using total population, the corona virus is not a threat; but you cannot consider that as not everyone will get it in a population.

so, if you speculate and say 10% will, 10% of 300 million in the usa and the threat looks greater with a 10% infection rate, but then in a normal flu season the entire population is considered at risk, so why it is not now and a rate of 1% infections in the total population is not what they go with on the corona threat; I do not know.

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"The entire population is considered at risk" during a normal flu season? That's not right for obvious reasons.

In contrast, absent control measures nearly the entire population is at risk from SARS2 except for low single digit percentages in most places and maybe 25-30% in NYC.

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Originally Posted by MultiVerse

Second, herd immunity is S=1/R0. If R0=2.5 the number infected is 60%, if R0=5.7 the number infected is 84%.

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What does S stand for? I'm guessing from your numbers that it means the fraction of the population that is susceptible, so the fraction that needs to be immune for herd immunity to take hold would be 1--S. Do I understand correctly? If that is correct than if the R0 is 1--each person infects 1 other person, than the fraction needed for herd immunity is 1--1/i=0. which doesn't sound right. What am I not understanding?

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Originally Posted by Viva

Fuck, I don't even recall writing that earlier post.

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https://media.giphy.com/media/NJZMSqRY3rG9i/giphy.gif

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Originally Posted by seano732

That lady looks and sounds batshit insane....Wow.

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You talking about the mayor or the bunny?

Looting is still a week or two away. Geez.

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Originally Posted by old goat

What does S stand for? I'm guessing from your numbers that it means the fraction of the population that is susceptible, so the fraction that needs to be immune for herd immunity to take hold would be 1--S. Do I understand correctly? If that is correct than if the R0 is 1--each person infects 1 other person, than the fraction needed for herd immunity is 1--1/i=0. which doesn't sound right. What am I not understanding?

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R0 is the basic reproduction number. S=1/R0 is the fraction of susceptible. The basic static herd immunity percentage is (R0 – 1)/R0. The relationship is (R0 – 1)/R0 = 1 − 1/R0.

So when R0 = 2.5, the simple herd immunity threshold is (2.5– 1)/2.5 = 60% even though S (susceptible) is still 1/2.5=40%.

Reality is more nuanced and more sophisticated models use differential equations to better approximate reality.

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Originally Posted by east or bust

A close friend's parents both came down with COVID about a month ago. Both on ventilators in the ICU. The mother has been out for a week or two and recovering/quarantining at home. The father is not faring well. Was finally off the vent and moving around last week, the same day he has a seizure (ultimately determined to be clot related) and goes back on the vent in the ICU. Still in the ICU I believe.

Is it really the virus directly causing clotting? Or the fact that some patients are stationary in a bed for a month?

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Patient stationary in bed for long periods of time are generally treated with partial anticoagulation, but a very small percentage will still develop blood clots. The number of blood clots in Covid 19 patients seems to be much higher in number. In addition the clots seem to be different in nature--occurring in multiple sites, not just leg veins and lung arteries, and the lung clots seem to be innumerable tiny clots, not the macro clots ordinarily seen in immobile patients. The clotting doesn't seem to be responsible to anticoagulants--even full dose. The patients seem to have DIC--disseminated intravascular coagulation--in which people get blood clotting all through their vascular system to the point that they use up all their clotting factors and may start bleeding. (The phenomenon is seen in a number of different critical illnesses--perhaps the most common being meningococcal meningitis--the kind that sometimes forms clusters in schools and colleges that we have a vaccine for. )

One thing about the issue of whether to intubate and ventilate or not--reading some of the blogs written by ER docs it sounds like the decision to intubate is often being made in ER's by ER docs, not necessarily by intensive care specialists who might be more sophisticated when it comes to Covid 19. I'm sure that if the idea of avoiding intubation becomes the standard of practice the knowledge will filter down to the ER docs, but for now it sounds like in some cases at least the decision is being made by someone who will not be the physician responsible for the patient's ongoing care.