Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

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Originally Posted by The AD

I think that's the idea in a lot of places, but to me it's a little heavy handed. I don't understand how driving somewhere and recreating is inherently worse than walking or biking there. Yeah, we don't want people driving hundreds of miles, but a few miles should be fine.

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well how about you got it so you are move it there, or you go there get it and move it back to where you live ?

Think about how covid got from wuhan to america,

did it independently float /fly like a migrating bug or bird

OR fly the friendly skies of United ?

Fucking #cruiseshiptards were no small part.

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Originally Posted by XXX-er

well how about you got it so you are move it there, or you go there get it and move it back to where you live ?

Think about how covid got from wuhan to america,

did it independently float /fly like a migrating bug or bird

OR fly the friendly skies of United ?

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What part of "a few miles" don't you understand?

a few miles is a continuum thing, let your conscience be your guide

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Originally Posted by old goat

I'm not sure I buy number one--I think we have to assume that the virus is everywhere. Over half of the infected sailors on the Roosevelt were asymptomatic. In places with younger, healthier populations--like naval vessels and mountain towns--I suspect the percentage of asymptomatic carriers is higher than in cities. If that out of town CV+ visitor brings it to your ski town or recreates locally they're still infecting other people if they aren't observing distancing.

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I'm of two minds on this one; I'm much more inclined to think that there's a significant cost to losing legitimacy by enforcing restrictions that cost quality of life without any real benefit. That's not sustainable. And there's risk in everything. My intent was merely to point out a couple of the risks of driving to recreate do they can be considered, not to say I think it should be banned--I don't.

But slower movement less often slows transmission and transmission increases concentration. It's not a question of whether it already exists in one place or another, but it does matter whether those places are on different points in their respective curves. Keeping the curves out of phase flattens the sum total. So yeah, driving is a minor risk bump and totally minimal for responsible people. But it also magnifies the actions of the irresponsible.

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Originally Posted by old goat

I'm not sure I buy number one--I think we have to assume that the virus is everywhere. Over half of the infected sailors on the Roosevelt were asymptomatic.

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Distance exactly matters. It's not everywhere, it's here and there in clusters. Most likely, the Roosevelt brought it to Guam. Had they not visited, Guam would have no cases. If Roosevelt hadn't stopped in Vietnam, it wouldn't have got to Roosevelt. Travel and distance makes a big difference.

For the specific example of Santa Cruz, if they are indeed successfully sheltering as Ottime suggests, then they may also successfully trace cases. If travelers keep bringing it in, that introduces new undiscovered transmission chains, these have no local trace. Same if travelers bring it home. Also, it's more difficult to trace cases across jurisdictions.

The Viet Nam thing has been debunked. Time line didn't match up.

https://youtu.be/bsnHUrpD__E

Sent from my SM-A505FN using Tapatalk

when is a mod gonna nut up and puts the poliassfuckery back in the sadverse room of fuckin losers
when the coviods over?

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Originally Posted by iceman

Because there is so much travel between China and CA (again, in the theory) the disease was introduced to CA very early and spread rather quietly. People were getting sick, but nobody had ever heard of CV at that point, so there was no particular alarm. Because of the transmissibility of the disease, and the fact that nobody even knew it existed. CA was able to develop a level of herd immunity that New York did not have on the same dates.

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Not sure I buy that. If it was the same Covid-19 that we are dealing with now wouldn't there have been much higher rate of spread without social distancing, leading to thousands of people requiring hospitalization and hundreds or more requiring ICU/ventilators, and many deaths? If the state didn't realize something was wrong just from those trends you'd think testing of some patients would have raised the alarm that this was not the flu.

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Originally Posted by iceman

Who cares how far they drive if they're the only ones there when they get where they're going? I get keeping the parking lots closed though, particularlt at the beach. You'd rather not have a van with 10 people and coolers and grills pull up.

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People are still flocking to the beach where I live. They can't go on the sand so the new thing is to drive around and gawk at the view or park along the road and sit in your car or truck bed and hang out. Meanwhile there are so many people out walking around that runners are running in the bike lanes so bikes have to ride in the traffic lanes. Which makes it kinda dangerous with all the idiots gawking at the ocean while driving around.

All the major trailheads have been closed down at state parks and national forest sites but most trails outside the city are still open. That seems to be working ok. Before trailhead closures I was seeing 50-60 cars a trailheads where you'd never see more than half dozen cars before. I went out to the desert last weekend. All the dirt roads were closed off to vehicles but open to bikes and hikers. These aren't hiker friendly so I had the place to myself... 35 miles and only person I saw was a ranger patrolling in a jeep. I think I know what I'll be doing again this weekend....

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Originally Posted by old goat

Just heard on the news--Trump planning to start holding rallies. No doubt in Dem states. no doubt hoping to set up a confrontation with Dem govs by defying bans on gatherings. I say let him have the rallies--just as long as they put a quarantine order on anyone who attends--with criminal penalties. If Trump and his faithful want to get sick and die why stop them? KQ--if he has one in WW you might have to stop seeing your MAGA friends for a couple of weeks.

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We should send some undercover asymptomatic Covid-positive patients into the crowd. I'm sure we could round up volunteers.

How it kills.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ody-brain-toes

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Originally Posted by skifishbum

when is a mod gonna nut up and puts the poliassfuckery back in the sadverse room of fuckin losers
when the coviods over?

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This

theyre too busy polishing their ethical morality sticks fore all to behold
maybe its time for new leadership

Don't left click, its pretty simple.

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Originally Posted by skifishbum

when is a mod gonna nut up and puts the poliassfuckery back in the sadverse room of fuckin losers
when the coviods over?

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I made the polies a nice thread for thrunting in poly but the same players there can't resist posting here. The two threads should be combined into one poly thread. This one has become an 8-track tape with the same artists/songs playing over and over ad nauseam.

I am doing my once a week shopping this morning, then going skiing out the for this afternoon.

im not allowed to shop
i could go skiing though
stoked you are
poopfishins probably safer
unless i bust out the sup
dog on the sups a wash
he'll probably have us swimming butts
he was bred to keep peeps from drowndins

Stay out of that cold water^^

the driftys unsinkable
don't mean unpinable in swift water
it means these enough foam tween the hdpe layers
that it wont sink
and the yetis tall nuffs to keep a bum dry
and theres always a dry bag filled with warm dry clothes
watershed ftw
the governor opened most of the state parks today to all cept the ones that remain open only to county residents
I think ill go back to where there was no one yesterday on the fed bird refuge
while everyone else goes to the state parks theve been unable to go to
https://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y1...psxtmnawzs.jpg
people density and poopfish dislike for them
I don't think its a venn diagram but a
less is more
lines on the graph
Hopes Jorge and the zimmys are attempting stayin safe

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Originally Posted by MultiVerse

Once again, your arguments are ahistorical. Fed policy was not expansionary during the 1920s. From Friedman’s Monetary History:

The economic collapse from 1929 to 1933 has produced much misunderstanding of the twenties. The widespread belief that what goes up must come down and hence also that what comes down must do so because it earlier went up, plus the dramatic stock market boom, have led many to suppose that the United States experienced severe inflation before 1929 and the Reserve System served as an engine of it. Nothing could be further from the truth. By 1923, wholesale prices had recovered only a sixth of their 1920-21 decline. From then until 1929, they fell on the average of 1 percent per year.

So, during the 1920s there's deflation, no housing bubble, no inflation in the price of gold, interest rates were not low either, and the monetary base—specifically money created by the Fed—barely changed.

The fact is your list of Fed "bubbles" 1929, 2000 dot-com, 2006-07 housing, occurred during periods when money was tight. Since then both the Nasdaq and US housing, following random unpredictable ups and downs prior to the COVID pandemic, recovered relative to the long term trend.


The original premise that the Fed is entirely to blame, not the pandemic, not all the other reasons listed by everyone else, is absurd.

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I'm not talking about consumer price inflation. I'm talking about M2 money supply which increased 55% from 1921-1928, and I'm not sure where you are getting the idea that interest rates weren't low either.

It's absurd that you claim my Fed bubbles occurred during periods of tight money. You ignore the artificially low rates preceding the crashes that allow the bubbles to inflate, and then when the Fed doesn't continue with these artificially low rates, you blame the crash on tighter (but still artificially loose) monetary policy.

And I'm not blaming everything on the Fed. I say they are a huge problem because they create the environment for these bubbles to grow and incentivize risky business practices.

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Originally Posted by MultiVerse

The reason why the above matters, why letting people, businesses, and banks fail en masse is a bad idea, is because once the rate of failure is non-linear: firm exit and job destruction amplifies the exogenous shock, the non-payment of mortgages makes the banking system insolvent and beyond saving, supply chains for things like medicine fail, workers lose skills, resulting in economic collapse the results of which can persist for decades.

Pandemics depress the economy, public interventions do not.

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Have you ever heard of the Depression of 1920? I'm guessing not since the gov't did the opposite of what you advocate and the market recovered quickly on its own.

https://mises.org/library/forgotten-depression-1920

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Originally Posted by S_jenks

I mean, Eastern Washington might be more receptive to a Trump visit. He did hold a rally in Missoula, which was was an odd move considering it's the most liberal city in MT.

Had some messages to greet his plane as it flew in:

Attachment 325672

Attachment 325671

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HA! We've got a giant Green Giant on the hill in Dayton. Maybe we could add something to him but knowing that part of the state it would probably be a MAGA hat.

Attachment 325687

Attachment 325688

Why do I keep coming back to this?

You were warned in 2016

Attachment 325690

https://youtu.be/2FPrJxTvgdQ

Now this
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Still trolling, eh? Hope your wife stays safe.

And chill out Karen.

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Originally Posted by Core Shot

HIGH FUCKING FIVE

TO THE OLD PEOPLE WITH NO MASK

Been super busy today, only scanned a few of the 100 pages posted.

You KARENS need to chill the fuck out.

And to whoever wished old people in public without masks die? May karma kick your schadenfreude in the nuts.

I respect the 70 year old that says fuck it. Going out with my boots on and my mask off.

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the 77 year old man was in the hospital with pneumonias the week it was still cool to bump elbows and soli mag bake lds
I did a grocery Starbucks run for him that thurs instead of skiing with mags
sunday the wife brought him up a cycle trainer and asked if he and the godsend the heavenly father sent us 10 years his junior squeeze while his 3rd divorce bankrupts him, needed any shopping done
so Monday he looses his phone in one of the 4 summit county places he felt were essential because wasatch county doesn't have capers or what ever he needed for stay at home dinner
then went back to all of them Tuesday to look for his fuckin essential phone
wifes gonna strangle him long fore the,
im all masked and gloved while I carry my vector transmitting personal device that I cant possibly function without everywhere
up piss poor decision making does his peckerhead ass
hes been fishing which as both my and better 1/2s blessing
but im not allowed to launch my boat and keep an eye on 2 senior citizens in a blowup dave scrandon raft powered by a trolling motor on a large western reservoir in that county
wtf

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Originally Posted by The AD

I think that's the idea in a lot of places, but to me it's a little heavy handed. I don't understand how driving somewhere and recreating is inherently worse than walking or biking there. Yeah, we don't want people driving hundreds of miles, but a few miles should be fine.

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I think the issue is we can't trust Americans. How can you tell if someone drove 2 miles or 200? Especially large states. Not by just quickly scanning their plates.

We were seeing a huge amount of traffic coming in from hotspot counties like Santa Clara, San Mateo and San Francisco. We even had a Dutch family here who had been RVing around the west coast all of late February and March. People still wanted to come visit. The easiest way to keep tourist away is (1) close the hotels and (2) close the parking.

We don't have the hospital beds or ICU to handle a big outbreak. We are doing our part locally to keep numbers down. We don't want visitors right now.

The truth of the. matter is most people are not just driving from X to a trailhead, waiting to get out of their car until folks are not around, and staying distance on the trails. Last week 5 dudes from Fremont (50 miles away and the local epicenter) were hanging out in the 711 parking lot, after biking, chatting and eating. They were all ticketed. We had folks from Santa Clara picking up food from their favorite Santa Cruz bakery a few days ago.

Like I said, you can't trust Americans to do the right thing by juts asking them. We all feel way to entitled to our freedom and liberty to be selfish.