FZ = still doing snow dance (without results so far). 6-10" is not worth looking at.
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FZ = still doing snow dance (without results so far). 6-10" is not worth looking at.
dancing like crazy over here as well. A couple tonight, then 6-10 tomorrow would be nice. Temps still look crazy warm for this time of year, hopefully it won't rain like it's July again.
On a completely seperate note, I took out the Bros this weekend for their first turns on something besides the WROD......WOW, those things kick ass.
Weather update. Models seem to be in pretty good agreement through Saturday. First, the polar jet seems to want to sag over the state tonight thru thursday with good moisture and dynamics. Then starting thursday, the big closed low moving towards CA sends a ridiculous stream of subtropical moisture towards the state. This should go through Saturday, though it will favor the Southern Mountains on a SW flow. After Saturday, the models are not quite in agreement with what to do with the closed low, with the GFS sending a chunk of energy towards the state and the EC closing it off and possibly retrograding it southwest, then slowly moving the low over southern Arizona and New Mexico. If the GFS verifies then it would mean more snow for the Northern and Central mountains.
After the weekend, the longer range models still show some troughiness over the SW with some shortwaves moving in from the PacNW as the pattern changes over to more westerlies with increased chances of precip through the 18th(?)
Rontele- Am I seeing this weeks snow right? Looks like maybe a skiff if anything tonight, maybe 2-4 tomorrow night, maybe another 1-2 on Thurs. As for the weekend, does it look to have potential for the central mtns....say 6+?
Frequent 90mph gusts reported on Berthoud last night by CDOT.
NOAA sez...1-2' by Friday night with more expected into Sunday.Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
Nope. Looking like a good, long duration event. Snow advisory tonight for the central mountains, 4-8 inches (though CAIC had a more aggressive 6-12 in. forecast), then snow, periodically, through saturday with 1-3 feet in total accums. Althoug, I am still a little confused as the BOU office seemed fairly meh about this storm, but the fire point forecast for Bert calls for nearly 30 inches of snow by friday.Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Monarch needs this so frickin bad I can taste it
http://tetongravity.com/forums/attac...1&d=1196866910
Please let FP lead Ullr here...
Edit to add from FP's predictions looks like the storm chaser should ski northerns like Berthoud / WP thurs/fri and work south to Wolf creek/S-tonMtn for the weekend.
Fingers crossed on the forecasts.
Loveland Pass 12/4 - Wind, Wind, Wind. Anything above treeline or anywhere near treeline was blasted Monday-Tues. Anything west facing was mostly blasted devoid of snow. Northerly aspects exposed to the wind were turned into billiard table smooth wind board and easterly aspects were loaded with thick wind slab. I noted several LARGE natural slab avies on steep East faces looking like 6-10' deep off of cornice lines. Below treeline it was still wind affected, but more soft with collapsible bottom layers.
Just saw this.
I'll make sure to bump every time for you Rontele when we have 10% chance for ppt.
temps look crazy warm still, it was 33 degrees in Vail this morning at 7am. I hope it doesn't rain like a crazy person again like it did last week. Fingers crossed for a big prolonged event!
I bet Montezuma bowl is great skiing right about now. So, I take it the skiing wasn't superb?Quote:
Originally Posted by smitchell333
Actually skiiing above treeline where on that windboard was delightful as it was turning on firm but carvable fast snow. Below treeline was OK where untracked, although a bit grabby and still thin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
Do your own homework! ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Hacksaw
FYI, this is a thread dedicated to backcountry conditions and weather not resort openings.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick Pappagiorgio
just sayin'.
Duly noted.
Pre-precipitation Tourettes?Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick Pappagiorgio
Quote:
Originally Posted by smitchell333
Thanks for an actual snowpack observation rather than continuing the amateur meteorology circle-jerk!:D
agreed with homerjay
Rontele needs to stick to lawyering - we've got NOAA for a reason - you don't see Red Baron giving legal advice, do you?
ok here goes: snowpack is shallow and rotten in places, wind doesn't help, we need snow.
I think you're standing across from him in the 'circle.':biggrin:Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
Don't sweat it, look out your window!
Fine, I thought I was doing folks a favor by sifting through the numerous NOAA forecasts and concisely putting it here.Quote:
Originally Posted by telemike
I'll take my ball and go elsewhere. ;)
and report snowpack obvs.
nooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Maybe the Suit or web guy can move this to Snow Conditions and Weather and rename it 2007-2008 Colorado Weather Observations - along with all the other threads on conditions and weather that are in ski/sb. That SC&W place could use more traffic.
Then start a new one here on snowpack and avies.
good idea
Snow reports and prognostication are relevent to avvy danger right now. Not too many on the ground obs to be had yet. I say keep the forecasts part of the deal.
Rontele- don't listen to the haters. I dig your snow/weather predictions. They are more right on than NOAA - who called for 1-2 inches today. mike and homerjay can eat it.
Ok kids, stop picking on Rontele......:rolleyes2
Last night driving home from Winter Park, I came over the pass at about 2215 hrs. It had already snowed about 5", with some big wet fat flakes. You could only see about 200'. It was almost a full on blizzard. Couldn't see any avalanche activity. The part that really sucked was getting a flat tire about a mile west of Idiot Springs....... Changing tires in heavy snow storm is one of those experiences, everyone should have.......:tongue: So, this morning I didn't make it up to Loveland, to enjoy the new snow.
Halsted
riiiight. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by stupendous man
(I don't know how to multi-quote)
"11-28-2007, 08:25 PM
Rontele
AC Slatering Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Fidoucheiary
Posts: 7,001
Thanks! Lets hope we get some good snows out of this weekend's storm cause it is looking like a return to high pressure through the middle of the month (the 12th) and above normal temperatures."
I'm not busting balls per se, just saying that a separate thread might be nice. 8 pages here and maybe, what a dozen 'observations,' tops? Everything I need to know is from CAIC, NWS, and my knees.:biggrin: Trying to accurately predict mountain weather in the long term is like masturbating with sandpaper.
I'm part of the problem by even writing this, so I'll try to limit it to actual snowpack observation posts in the future, maybe with the occasional smart ass remark thown in. I've only observed manmade snow on Born Free and powpow in my face at Wolfie this season.
I actually prefer weather prediction though because it doesn't chafe the skin off my penis (usually).Quote:
Originally Posted by homerjay
To bridge the gap between snowfall and avalanche obs, this current pattern is starting to remind me of 05/06 where a dry fall gave way to a sudden string of December storms and an avalanche cycle. None of the daily amounts were impressive but the weekly totals always made you say "Damn!" By New Year's, we pretty much had a 100" base and our beloved depth hoar layer went dormant until the spring melt. Which is to say, weather forecasting is the first step in avy forecasting and I suspect that the sudden increase in the backcountry snowpack will lead to more observations here. Cross my heart that if I dawn or dusk patrol tomorrow, I'll post up what I see.
don't let my assbag opinion get you down
do what you want to do
FUCK YEAHHHHHHHHHH!!
I mean - holy shit the danger is high with all this snow on those rotten basal layers and variable hardslab in the middle. But going through the avy gauntlet is the best way to get us to where we need to be.
LL pass this PM - 15-24" of powder. Still nailing shit here and there, but man it was good skiing. Cracky and a bit on the moist side in the new snow, but not hearing any whumphing or seeing any travelling cracks, although I stayed on the ski packed terrain for the most part to keep it safe.
Ob via E-mail from a buddy on the pack on Red Mtn pass last sun 12/2
Quote:
...Had great turns on Red last Sunday. 3+ from storm. Total about 4’ in protected areas. Here’s the pack on Red at 10,400 N-NE slope:
1-15cm are facets. Very coehsionless
15-18 cm wind and sun crust – from four weeks of mild temps
18-30 cm dense new snow – from early part of storm when temps were warm and rain fell in the valleys including S-ton
30-120 cm fresh lighter density snow – unconsolidated, supportable for turns.
The Rausch block broke at the top of the dense snow with one body weight…
I got a bad feeling about this weekend.....:( Keep you fingers crossed...
There is soo much pent-up "powder Lust," out there that I don't think folks are clearly thinking.
And its not only skiers/boarders. Over on 14ers.com folks are asking if they think climbing Torries, Bierstadt, Quandary and a few other peaks would be do-able climbs. Their hardly even asking about avalanche conditions.......:(:eek:
Meanwhile, a lot of the S&R folks this weekend are attending refresher avalanche school in Summit..........:biggrin: I knew it would be a powder weekend, because I'll be in a classroom teaching.....:rolleyes2
Halsted
Does he mean "one body weight," being just stepping on to the block or one jump on the block????:eek: In eaither case NOT a good Rutschblock score....:eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankZappa
I guess I should reconsider skiing Mines tomorrow ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Hacksaw
x2. I was thinking that this morning while we did some meadowskipping. Especially if tonight shapes up like it's supposed to.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hacksaw
:nonono2::nonono2::nonono2:Quote:
And its not only skiers/boarders. Over on 14ers.com folks are asking if they think climbing Torries, Bierstadt, Quandary and a few other peaks would be do-able climbs. Their hardly even asking about avalanche conditions.......:(:eek:
Luckily for them, they won't make it very far. Bootpacking/snowshoeing = the suck.
1, 2, 3, do not skiQuote:
Originally Posted by Hacksaw
4, 5 still might die
6, 7 i forget the rhyme :p
1,2,3 your going to die....Quote:
Originally Posted by pechelman
4 and 5, you still might die....
6 and 7 will one day get to ski in Heaven..
Hee, hee, hee, hee, hee, hahhh, hah, hahh, heeee-haw, sorry must stifle the powder cackle.
Deep stuff at L-land pass this morning, but boy you didn't want to go anywhere au natural that is steep as there is a lot of new snow and it has a real inverted nature where untrammeled. I'd rate it Considerable with pockets of High maybe trending to Extreme - especially above treeline.
Caution in terrain selection is going to be the key word of the weekend.