The inflation thread

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11-09-2021, 01:10 AM
Flyoverland Captive

Quote:

Originally Posted by old goat

Grocery Outlet.

You spelled Gross Out wrong.
11-09-2021, 05:52 AM
VTeton

Quote:

Originally Posted by neufox47

Shit I get A5 Kobe for $105. $180 for Wagyu?

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Apparently it was japanese A5 and not American. Still seems crazy

Sent from my SM-G998U1 using Tapatalk
11-09-2021, 02:04 PM
neufox47

Quote:

Originally Posted by VTeton

Apparently it was japanese A5 and not American. Still seems crazy

Sent from my SM-G998U1 using Tapatalk

Ahh ok. Makes more sense. I will say the steak game has gotten crazy the last few years. Suddenly high end steak houses “standard” $65-$80 steaks are all wet aged. Any decent dry aged steaks are $100+. And there is a specialty market for super aged, as long as 1 year, that are going for $200-400 in restaurants and up to $200 a lb in butcher shops. I feel like A5 Japanese is now “pedestrian” in some circles.
11-09-2021, 02:27 PM
Dantheman

Quote:

Originally Posted by neufox47

And there is a specialty market for super aged, as long as 1 year, that are going for $200-400 in restaurants and up to $200 a lb in butcher shops.

To be fair, 1-year aged steak is meant to be eaten in small quantities and not the kind of thing where you're going to eat a whole 16 oz slab (according to Adam Perry Lang, at least).
11-09-2021, 02:42 PM
Mazderati

Men comparing their meat. A tale as old as time.
11-09-2021, 02:43 PM
neufox47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dantheman

To be fair, 1-year aged steak is meant to be eaten in small quantities and not the kind of thing where you're going to eat a whole 16 oz slab (according to Adam Perry Lang, at least).

Fuckin commies
11-09-2021, 02:45 PM
dunfree

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dantheman

To be fair, 1-year aged steak is meant to be eaten in small quantities and not the kind of thing where you're going to eat a whole 16 oz slab (according to Adam Perry Lang, at least).

to be fair, a fair bit of food connoisseurship at that price level isn’t tied rigorously to product quality.
11-09-2021, 03:32 PM
Dantheman

Quote:

Originally Posted by dunfree

to be fair, a fair bit of food connoisseurship at that price level isn’t tied rigorously to product quality.

I never said it was, but I fully agree.
11-10-2021, 09:09 AM
old_newguy

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/cons...x-october.html

U.S. consumer prices jump 6.2% in October, the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years

“ Food prices also showed a sizeable bounce, up 0.9% and 5.3% respectively. Within the food category, meat, poultry, fish and eggs collectively rose 1.7% for the month and 11.9% year over year.”
11-10-2021, 09:26 AM
Skidog

Quote:

Originally Posted by old_newguy

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/cons...x-october.html

U.S. consumer prices jump 6.2% in October, the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years

“ Food prices also showed a sizeable bounce, up 0.9% and 5.3% respectively. Within the food category, meat, poultry, fish and eggs collectively rose 1.7% for the month and 11.9% year over year.”

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
11-10-2021, 11:10 AM
Kevo

Everything is fine. This is all transitory. No problems. It's just a supply issue. No need to raise interest rates. We'll just keep the rates low and think about maybe slightly dialing back our quantitative easing maybe at some point in the future. But for now, just remember that interest rates and monetary stimulus definitely aren't causing inflation.

...right?
11-10-2021, 11:18 AM
Benny Profane

Maybe not.

I can't see sustained inflation with the demographics, globalization, and new tech still rolling in. It ain't the 70s, when every major union just negotiated a new, inflation covering contract every three years, and corporations just threw the white flag and followed along.
11-10-2021, 11:47 AM
wooley12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kevo

Everything is fine. This is all transitory. No problems. It's just a supply issue. No need to raise interest rates. We'll just keep the rates low and think about maybe slightly dialing back our quantitative easing maybe at some point in the future. But for now, just remember that interest rates and monetary stimulus definitely aren't causing inflation.

...right?

Right. It IS a supply issue. A pandemic fueled increase in the amount of disposable income ( free money and a year f not being able to spend it all) and the pandemic fueled decrease in the amount of goods and services available. Question is how to attack inflation to mitigate it. Decrease money supply or increase the supply of goods.

I aced my MBA level Macro course at my oral final and only went to 5 classes all year. So I must be a savant.
11-10-2021, 12:39 PM
Brock Landers

Quote:

Originally Posted by wooley12

Right. It IS a supply issue. A pandemic fueled increase in the amount of disposable income ( free money and a year f not being able to spend it all) and the pandemic fueled decrease in the amount of goods and services available. Question is how to attack inflation to mitigate it. Decrease money supply or increase the supply of goods.

I aced my MBA level Macro course at my oral final and only went to 5 classes all year. So I must be a savant.

Sounds like a demand issue, the way you put it.

Would higher rates impact supply chain issues, rising wages, rents (which haven’t changed much whereas house prices HAVE obviously increased), fiscal policy from 2020, commodity demand/prices?
11-10-2021, 12:42 PM
dunfree

Hard money people pissed there wasn’t enough pain for poor(er) people. I mean if you are gonna swing dicjs that all your bros are making 20-30% more and the job market is on fire look in the fucking mirror at the problem don’t blame the cost of fucking milk.
11-10-2021, 01:17 PM
Brock Landers

Hot seat: the cost of fucking milk
11-10-2021, 02:14 PM
Benny Profane

Quote:

Originally Posted by dunfree

Hard money people pissed there wasn’t enough pain for poor(er) people. I mean if you are gonna swing dicjs that all your bros are making 20-30% more and the job market is on fire look in the fucking mirror at the problem don’t blame the cost of fucking milk.

I don't think most anybody is making 20-30% more, but they are certainly spending 20-30% less, maybe more, if they haven't bought a house or car. I mean, just the upper middle class TGR demo, which missed spending a ton last year on ski travel, or, just travel alone. That will settle back to a mean.
11-10-2021, 06:59 PM
wooley12

Spot on Benny. Huge blip in upper middle and up making bank and spending nil (supply) with a huge dip in stuff on the shelves = inflation. Rapids to gently navigate. Raising interest rates are bad for you and me. But good for capitalists. IMO.
11-10-2021, 07:17 PM
Benny Profane

I don't even think rates will really rise. Easy money isn't causing this, and hard money won't fix it. The capitalists and the Chinese Communist Party will work this out, because this is how money is made today. The whole problem for the capitalists would be to succumb to higher wages for the essential workers everyone was tying a yellow ribbon around just a year ago, because those wages will be sticky. Gotta keep the credit machine rolling. Can't let anybody die comfortably.

I'll take guaranteed 5% on my money, or at least half of it, full faith and backing. I don't need much. That's what I mean by demographics. The boomers were just starting to buy all sorts of shit in the 70s. Now we don't need anything, and half the Boomers have no money to spend, anyway. Old people don't buy shit. Same in Japan, Europe, and soon to come, China.
11-10-2021, 07:32 PM
dunfree

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

I don't think most anybody is making 20-30% more, but they are certainly spending 20-30% less, maybe more, if they haven't bought a house or car. I mean, just the upper middle class TGR demo, which missed spending a ton last year on ski travel, or, just travel alone. That will settle back to a mean.

lol, bitches here be lappin up the new $450 smith goggle
11-10-2021, 08:10 PM
Benny Profane

That's what the plastic brings.
11-10-2021, 08:13 PM
old goat

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

I don't think most anybody is making 20-30% more, but they are certainly spending 20-30% less, maybe more, if they haven't bought a house or car. I mean, just the upper middle class TGR demo, which missed spending a ton last year on ski travel, or, just travel alone. That will settle back to a mean.

What surprises me is that inflation or not people I know--not a poor demographic--keep doing remodels and buying big ticket items. We need to replace some rotted windows that won't close. We'll just keep bailing for now.
Meanwhile guy comes to the door, neat, fancy brochure, soliciting contracting work. I'm trying to shoo the guy off when my wife drives up and gets his info. I try to convince her that door to door contractors are scam artists and even if they weren't anyone who needs to be soliciting business right now you don't want to hire.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dunfree

lol, bitches here be lappin up the new $450 smith goggle

I had a half off code but anything on Smith I would have any interest in was unavailable. (My AF kid got the code because tactical. Before the AF sent him to the desert they gave him a nice Arcteryx jacket. And a whole bunch of other neat stuff--GPS, a little stove--all of which stayed here. Hope he doesn't go for a walk some night and get lost.)
11-11-2021, 06:51 AM
Benny Profane

All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.

https://ritholtz.com/2021/11/time-peak-inflation/

Also: https://ritholtz.com/2021/11/productivity-wage-gains/
11-11-2021, 07:59 AM
BmillsSkier

We’re number one!

Ugh. Guess I won’t be looking to upgrade the house anytime soon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...7-9-price-hike
11-11-2021, 08:05 AM
glademaster

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.

That's right in my wheelhouse. Pretty much sums up a large part of my existence. Highly recommended. Just make sure to get outdoors often, but preferably quietly and alone too.
11-11-2021, 10:43 AM
Toadman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.

https://ritholtz.com/2021/11/time-peak-inflation/

Also: https://ritholtz.com/2021/11/productivity-wage-gains/

man was not meant to sit quietly in a room. That's why man left the cave to go on vacation on the savannah every once and awhile.

But now man has returned to the cave with big tv's and stereo surround systems and a wet bar.
11-11-2021, 10:54 AM
Benny Profane

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toadman

man was not meant to sit quietly in a room. That's why man left the cave to go on vacation on the savannah every once and awhile.

But now man has returned to the cave with big tv's and stereo surround systems and a wet bar.

And Peloton.
11-11-2021, 11:07 AM
old goat

Quote:

Originally Posted by old_newguy

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...t-robert-reich

But there’s a deeper structural reason for inflation, one that appears to be growing worse: the economic concentration of the American economy in the hands of a relative few corporate giants with the power to raise prices.
If markets were competitive, companies would keep their prices down in order to prevent competitors from grabbing away customers.
But they’re raising prices even as they rake in record profits. How can this be? They have so much market power they can raise prices with impunity.
Viewed this way, the underlying problem isn’t inflation per se. It’s lack of competition. Corporations are using the excuse of inflation to raise prices and make fatter profits.
In April, Procter & Gamble announced it would start charging more for consumer staples ranging from diapers to toilet paper, citing “rising costs for raw materials, such as resin and pulp, and higher expenses to transport goods”.
But P&G is making huge profits. In the quarter ending 30 September, after some of its price increases went into effect, it reported a whopping 24.7% profit margin. It even spent $3bn during the quarter buying its own stock.
It could raise prices and rake in more money because P&G faces almost no competition. The lion’s share of the market for diapers, to take one example, is controlled by just two companies – P&G and Kimberly-Clark – which roughly coordinate their prices and production. It was hardly a coincidence that Kimberly-Clark announced price increases similar to P&Gs at the same time P&G announced its own price increases.
Or consider another consumer product duopoly – PepsiCo (the parent company of Frito-Lay, Gatorade, Quaker, Tropicana, and other brands), and Coca-Cola. In April, PepsiCo announced it was increasing prices, blaming “higher costs for some ingredients, freight and labor”. Rubbish. The company didn’t have to raise prices. It recorded $3bn in operating profits through September.
If PepsiCo faced tough competition, it could never have gotten away with this. But it doesn’t. To the contrary, it appears to have colluded with Coca-Cola – which, oddly, announced price increases at about the same time as PepsiCo, and has increased its profit margins to 28.9%.

Thanks Obama. (Actually the courts including the SCOTUS for gutting anti-trust enforcement beginning in the 70's. And with Citizens United the sell out of the American public to corporations is complete.)
11-11-2021, 11:10 AM
Toadman

Quote:

Originally Posted by old_newguy

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...t-robert-reich

But there’s a deeper structural reason for inflation, one that appears to be growing worse: the economic concentration of the American economy in the hands of a relative few corporate giants with the power to raise prices.
If markets were competitive, companies would keep their prices down in order to prevent competitors from grabbing away customers.
But they’re raising prices even as they rake in record profits. How can this be? They have so much market power they can raise prices with impunity.

The return of the robber barrons. Our feckless FTC and allowing these mergers is not in keeping with the philosophy of Teddy Roosevelt. I don't see it changing. Too much lobbying money out there. Just look at Sinema and Manchin as prime examples.
11-11-2021, 03:19 PM
Kevo

Quote:

Originally Posted by old goat

Thanks Obama. (Actually the courts including the SCOTUS for gutting anti-trust enforcement beginning in the 70's. And with Citizens United the sell out of the American public to corporations is complete.)

+1

I also think a wholistic viewpoint takes into consideration that we did a ton of inflationary things from a monetary policy perspective. The fed pushed huge amounts of money into equities and bonds at the same time we were paying people more on unemployment than they made in their jobs.

I won't fault the little guy for following the incentive structure and staying on unemployment as long as was possible, just like I won't fault anyone who takes as much of a pay bump as they can at the moment.

I do think it is absolute bullshit that we keep bailing out shitty airlines and other poorly run companies.
11-14-2021, 02:02 PM
Core Shot

This thread has comic relief.

Lol

How could we possibly have runaway inflation?
11-14-2021, 02:05 PM
wooley12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Core Shot

This thread has comic relief.

Lol

How could we possibly have runaway inflation?

If you say it is, it will be.

You're welcome
11-14-2021, 02:40 PM
Bunion 2020

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kevo

+1

I also think a wholistic viewpoint takes into consideration that we did a ton of inflationary things from a monetary policy perspective. The fed pushed huge amounts of money into equities and bonds at the same time we were paying people more on unemployment than they made in their jobs.

I won't fault the little guy for following the incentive structure and staying on unemployment as long as was possible, just like I won't fault anyone who takes as much of a pay bump as they can at the moment.

Preach! Everyone seems to forget that we turned our economy off for an extended period of time in order to avoid a massive financial shitstorm. Well, we dodged that iceberg. Anyone who thinks there would not have been some consequences to that move is fucking delusional and this would have happened if it was Biden and the Ds or Trump and the Rs.
11-14-2021, 03:33 PM
dunfree

Some of the wage inflation is being short a couple million workers cause the legal immigration spigot got turned off.
11-14-2021, 03:40 PM
wooley12

Yep. Saw a company go from 100% hourly immigrant workers to 100% citizens with double the pay and benefits. And raised it's prices to generate the same profit.
11-14-2021, 03:56 PM
old goat

Quote:

Originally Posted by dunfree

Some of the wage inflation is being short a couple million workers cause the legal immigration spigot got turned off.

Not to mention a bunch of workers who died or were disabled from the covid.
11-14-2021, 05:00 PM
Hopeless Sinner

NYT-

"More than 4.4 million workers quit their jobs voluntarily in September, the Labor Department said Friday. That was up from 4.3 million in August and was the most in the two decades the government has been keeping track. Nearly a million quit their jobs in the leisure and hospitality industry alone, reflecting the steep competition for workers there as businesses recover from last year’s pandemic-induced shutdowns."
11-14-2021, 05:16 PM
Bunion 2020

Quote:

Originally Posted by wooley12

Yep. Saw a company go from 100% hourly immigrant workers to 100% citizens with double the pay and benefits. And raised it's prices to generate the same profit.

Isn't that what everyone says they want? Good paying jobs for Americans!

Shit like that costs money.
11-15-2021, 08:45 AM
warthog

Quote:

Originally Posted by BmillsSkier

We’re number one!

Ugh. Guess I won’t be looking to upgrade the house anytime soon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...7-9-price-hike

I am really surprised Tampa Bay is not on that list. Feels like half the midwest and 1/8th of NYC moved here. Place is full, and prices are through the roof on everything.
11-15-2021, 09:04 AM
dunfree

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bunion 2020

Isn't that what everyone says they want? Good paying jobs for Americans!

Shit like that costs money.

but someone else was supposed to pay…..

like the business open states ending up with inflation because they wanted everyone to show up blaming someone else.

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