Appalachian Trail murder and attack, too close for comfort

Odds matter fellas. Not just the individual circumstance. The chance of something happening is pretty low.

Since 1974, 13 people have been murdered on the AT. (seems like about a third of them with guns, for what it's worth.) 2-3 million folks hike part of it every year. At an average of 2 mil per year (just to estimate), that's 90,000,000 people on the trail and 13 deaths. Approximately a 1 in 7 million chance you'll be killed on the trail if you hiked it in the last 45 years.

I hope nothing happens to anyone we know or anyone on this board or any of us. But these odds are small. According to this dude Ethan Siegel who ran the numbers and published an article in Forbes, if you are a surfer in Hawaii, you have a 1 in 200,000 chance of being bitten by a tiger shark in any given year. You have a 1 in 232,000 of being injured by a grizzly in Yellowstone per day if you are in the backcountry.

Normalizing for the number of days people spend on the AT, rather than just the number of unique visitors, if the average AT hiker spends 3 days on the trail (just a guess), then there is a 1 in 21,000,000 chance you'll get killed by murder per day on the AT, and a 1 in 232,000 chance of getting injured by a grizzly per day in the Yellowstone backcountry.

So I think I'll still pay more attention to traditional wildlife than to two legged wildlife.

If you’re going to be doing math word problems, you’re going to need to show your work.

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Originally Posted by beece

Odds matter fellas. Not just the individual circumstance. The chance of something happening is pretty low.

Since 1974, 13 people have been murdered on the AT. (seems like about a third of them with guns, for what it's worth.) 2-3 million folks hike part of it every year. At an average of 2 mil per year (just to estimate), that's 90,000,000 people on the trail and 13 deaths. Approximately a 1 in 7 million chance you'll be killed on the trail if you hiked it in the last 45 years.

I hope nothing happens to anyone we know or anyone on this board or any of us. But these odds are small. According to this dude Ethan Siegel who ran the numbers and published an article in Forbes, if you are a surfer in Hawaii, you have a 1 in 200,000 chance of being bitten by a tiger shark in any given year. You have a 1 in 232,000 of being injured by a grizzly in Yellowstone per day if you are in the backcountry.

Normalizing for the number of days people spend on the AT, rather than just the number of unique visitors, if the average AT hiker spends 3 days on the trail (just a guess), then there is a 1 in 21,000,000 chance you'll get killed by murder per day on the AT, and a 1 in 232,000 chance of getting injured by a grizzly per day in the Yellowstone backcountry.

So I think I'll still pay more attention to traditional wildlife than to two legged wildlife.

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I'm planning a surf trip. Do they make a waterproof ar15?

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dang SIJ that is terrifying! Hope she is holding up ok
what a crazy bummer of a situation

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Originally Posted by m2711c

If you’re going to be doing math word problems, you’re going to need to show your work.

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Attachment 282545

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Originally Posted by b-bear

dang SIJ that is terrifying! Hope she is holding up ok
what a crazy bummer of a situation

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Yeah, I should also say (math aside) that it's terrible that she had to have this experience. Really sorry for her and you. And for the victims.

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Originally Posted by beece

Odds matter fellas. Not just the individual circumstance. The chance of something happening is pretty low.

Since 1974, 13 people have been murdered on the AT. (seems like about a third of them with guns, for what it's worth.) 2-3 million folks hike part of it every year. At an average of 2 mil per year (just to estimate), that's 90,000,000 people on the trail and 13 deaths. Approximately a 1 in 7 million chance you'll be killed on the trail if you hiked it in the last 45 years.

I hope nothing happens to anyone we know or anyone on this board or any of us. But these odds are small. According to this dude Ethan Siegel who ran the numbers and published an article in Forbes, if you are a surfer in Hawaii, you have a 1 in 200,000 chance of being bitten by a tiger shark in any given year. You have a 1 in 232,000 of being injured by a grizzly in Yellowstone per day if you are in the backcountry.

Normalizing for the number of days people spend on the AT, rather than just the number of unique visitors, if the average AT hiker spends 3 days on the trail (just a guess), then there is a 1 in 21,000,000 chance you'll get killed by murder per day on the AT, and a 1 in 232,000 chance of getting injured by a grizzly per day in the Yellowstone backcountry.

So I think I'll still pay more attention to traditional wildlife than to two legged wildlife.

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Can you explain this math to all the people who read stories of crime on nextdoor and freak out?

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Originally Posted by Danno

Can you explain this math to all the people who read stories of crime on nextdoor and freak out?

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Sure:

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Originally Posted by beece

murdered

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I got dropped from the A group on last weeks gravel ride, first hard ride of the year and I got smoked on a long climb. Waited for the B group, who were being led by a fat chick on a commuter ebike, it was surreal watching her ride me off her wheel. Didn’t bother me at all, I had to laugh actually, looked like fun.

Wrong thread, how did that just happen? This isn’t the ebike thread?

A lot of heat has come down on the hikers who declined to press charges. The couple who helped my daughter that night we’re among those who declined to press charges.

My daughter said the general feeling was that you’d have to put your trip-of-a-lifetime on hold hanging around to testify against a homeless drifter. Just move on and forget it.

I guess it’s like in the Seattle thread, what good Is a ticket/slap on the wrist to homeless guy who craps on your front steps? I think people just wanted to move on.

Some AT.org people got him a bus ticket, but he never got on.

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Originally Posted by iceman

Well that would suck, keep us posted please.

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Ok - whew, just saw the names released and can confirm it was not them. Still incredibly sad, and will probably fuck up the zen on the trail a good deal.

My friend, a past lady friend of mine, hit the 500 mile mark about a week ago, and not knowing their daily pace that should put them right around where this happened. Was genuinely worried there for a while. I wonder if they got tied up in this shit show.

First off, I'm glad your daughter is OK. I literally just got off a plane where I watched Wild for the second time and spent much of the time wondering if my daughter will ever be ballsy enough to do something like that solo. Weird.

T&Ps.

shouldn't that ^^ read " have ovaries large enough to do something like that solo "

maybe reality is they don't wana go anywhere their i-phone isnt gona work ?

in any case STATISTICALLY speaking is the Appalachian trail really any more or less dangerous than going to burger king or the library or anywhere else in America?

No, random shit happens.

It's not a tragedy, it's regular American life light.

It's probably the safest place you could be. But who cares?

Americans react irrationally. I'm sorry about the proximity to a whacko for the OP, but that could happen anywhere to anyone. This is a subtlety violent country. Get used to it.

Choose your weapon. For me, it has always been voice, intelligence, then force. Be that with a tool or not.

It's life. And it's way safer here, than most anywhere in the world.

SIJ this all hits too close to home. My wife told me about the incident right before I left for work the other night. So scary that you're daughter was involved. A promising young gal up here was randomly shot by a 9 mm gun minding her own business with friends driving down the god damn highway recently through a wooded area...same road I drive at the same time she was killed and I had noticed some stuff in that area recently that I contacted authorities about in hopes it helps them connect dots if there is any. I have friends that knew her and I know you. The sad part is all the violence, so much of it random, happening around us, and to people we know and love personally. And then everybody screaming more guns. Fuck I own guns and I backpack and I drive but I have zero desire to go through life carrying around a heavy piece of killing machine and really a crazy person can kill you anywhere anytime anyway. Super cool that your girl is doing the AT. Always a backburner dream of mine. Peace and thanks for sharing and I'll put in a good word for bear spray as my conceal and carry choice - mistakes are not fatal.

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Originally Posted by Bobby Stainless

Real gangsters ain't got time for laws son.

https://media.giphy.com/media/v3FWo9quhqDok/giphy.gif

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That is terrible to hear about the girl who was randomly shot while driving down the highway. And while the machete murder is equally awful, it's the random gun violence that is much, much more common. It won't stop though because guns help people feel tough (see above).

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Originally Posted by uglymoney

SIJ this all hits too close to home. My wife told me about the incident right before I left for work the other night. So scary that you're daughter was involved. A promising young gal up here was randomly shot by a 9 mm gun minding her own business with friends driving down the god damn highway recently through a wooded area...same road I drive at the same time she was killed and I had noticed some stuff in that area recently that I contacted authorities about in hopes it helps them connect dots if there is any. I have friends that knew her and I know you. The sad part is all the violence, so much of it random, happening around us, and to people we know and love personally. And then everybody screaming more guns. Fuck I own guns and I backpack and I drive but I have zero desire to go through life carrying around a heavy piece of killing machine and really a crazy person can kill you anywhere anytime anyway.

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And then they would be a crazy person with a gun!

Good guy shoots himself again.

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Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark

No, random shit happens.

It's not a tragedy, it's regular American life light.

It's probably the safest place you could be. But who cares?

Americans react irrationally. I'm sorry about the proximity to a whacko for the OP, but that could happen anywhere to anyone. This is a subtlety violent country. Get used to it.

Choose your weapon. For me, it has always been voice, intelligence, then force. Be that with a tool or not.

It's life. And it's way safer here, than most anywhere in the world.

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subtlety violent? your weaponized intelligence?

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Originally Posted by dunfree

that's the point. it's better for general purposes, not just fantasy. because fact is you are far more likely to encounter a bear, other predator, or nasty dog on the trail than some human asshole with a machete.

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It's awesome when it flies back in your face.

This thread is about some asshole chopping people up with a machete by the way...

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Originally Posted by tbssux

And while the machete murder is equally awful, it's the random gun violence that is much, much more common.

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That's some ground breaking shit right there bro... Mad respect. Namaste.

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Originally Posted by grinch

I'm planning a surf trip. Do they make a waterproof ar15?

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AK-47

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Originally Posted by Skidog

AK-47

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxQNYPYFq1c

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Originally Posted by iFlip

The average thru-hiker has no hatchet, machete, ax, or bear spray. Many do not even carry a pocket knife.

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Who would be on the Appalachian trail(or any backpacking excursion) without a knife..?

SIJ glad your daughter is ok and good for her for keeping her wits about her and persevering.

This thread is not the place to debate guns.

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Originally Posted by DaveTV

Who would be on the Appalachian trail(or any backpacking excursion) without a knife..?

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Ultralight knives are not much of a weapon.

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Sheesh, close call! This whole thing is so terrible. I hope your daughter can enjoy the rest of her trip.


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