Ok, this global warming shit is getting out of hand...

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Originally Posted by Plainview

Why does a human interest article about rising sea levels have to be chock-full of scientific facts to be relevant?

Sea levels are rising. This is fact. Landlocked ice is melting and contributing to this as is, to a smaller degree, rising ocean temperatures. There is plenty of data corroborating that. Just because a fluff piece about what this is doing to the Marshal Islands doesn't present an in-depth analysis of why sea levels are rising doesn't make the article irrelevant and says nothing one way or the other about causes or the quality of global warming research.

Or, are you one of these people that believes the melting of Greenland's ice sheet and the break up of the Antarctic ice shelves which hold back massive amounts of landlocked glacial ice don't/aren't having any effect?

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dude come on. I don't deny facts or consensus. but I also dont subscribe to unsubstantiated doomsday scenarios either.

FWIW the title of the article is "YOU'RE MAKING THIS ISLAND DISAPPEAR"

it then says in the first sentence-->
"It's one of the clearest injustices of climate change: The Marshall Islands likely won't exist if we warm the planet 2 degrees."

I know I'm nitpicking but shit like this article furthers the publics misunderstanding of the matter. a correct title for the piece would be something like "you're helping make this island disappear faster"

OK, I get it. It's the sensationalist bent to the article you're objecting too. Forgive my obtuseness.

I tend to believe human activity is in large part responsible for the warming we're seeing. Sure, correlation doesn't necessarily equal causation, but when you look at global climate conditions vs. atmospheric composition there's a pretty strong correlation and I just can't discount the fact that billions of cars and massive global scale industrial activity aren't the prime factors in the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other gases (methane, etc.).

Warming hasn't necessarily followed all predictions because all factors aren't clearly understood. It's only recently that scientists have realized that the oceans are a big heat sink and are potentially the reason warming seemed to have plateaued for awhile. That doesn't mean that the idea of anthropogenic global warming is wrong. I could very well be wrong, I'm no scientist, but my guess is that now that the oceans have absorbed quite a bit of heat that we're going to see a sudden spike in global temps over the next ten years. We're also going to see sea levels come up pretty rapidly as the melting of ice in places I mentioned above accelerates. Hell, Antarctica is setting high temperature records along with most of the rest of the world right now. I hope I'm wrong, but it does make sense.

Unfortunately, the bottom line is it doesn't really matter what's causing it. Even if it's human caused, there isn't shit we can do about it at this point. Humans aren't going to change their ways on a large scale until forced to, and that's going to take catastrophic events, and even then there isn't anything to be done. Even if we stopped all human caused carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions tomorrow the changes to the atmosphere's composition are pretty significant at this point and it would take a long, long time (if it ever happens) for things to return to pre-industrial levels.

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Originally Posted by steepconcrete

Even so the last 17 years have been flat with virtually no warming.

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So you have no clue about what's actually happening, but you talk like your a climatologist, mmm, ok.
No links..of course not. Just propaganda from faux news...

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...ent-years.html

A new study published online today in the journal Science finds that the rate of global warming during the last 15 years has been as fast as or faster than that seen during the latter half of the 20th Century. The study refutes the notion that there has been a slowdown or "hiatus" in the rate of global warming in recent years.

2015 Still On Pace as Hottest Year On Record

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/...nuary-may-2015

Arctic sea ice maximum reaches lowest extent on record

http://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arcti...-extent-record

I predict the skiing to be worse in the West this coming winter that last season. I hope I'm wrong, but I didn't buy anything ski related after January.

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Originally Posted by steepconcrete

the comments point out a common theme in these type of discussions -> long discredited studies being thrown around like they have merit by people with a agenda. this has happened with PCB (they were banned because of a flawed study), Vaccines, GMOs, sunscreen...

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I don't read it that way at all. Cliff Mass is great: he blasts the positional bullshit on both sides of the global warmingz issues, but steadfastly and scientifically maintains that it's an excellent theory. In a nutshell he's saying that current PNW weather is very likely representative of average weather around 2100.

If anything, the journalist in that article pumps the hysteria point of view, but at most slights Cliff Mass for suggesting that the current PNW torridity isn't manmade.

My take away is that the positional hysteria exists on both sides of the issue and the smart thing to do is to keep gathering data and be willing to let your personal paradigms be replaced by some potential polemic.

FWIW, I still distrust GMOs and there's a lot of data regarding the rise of allergies let alone the stupidity of monoculture to leave an enormous weight against the convenience and 'cost to results' benefits of GMOs. Again, neither position is clear to me and I'm leery of taking up an instrument in either band.

But I think we do agree on the hysteria hyping of doom and gloom or the head in the sand refusal to acknowledge the piles of data supporting climate change.

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Originally Posted by AaronWright

I predict the skiing to be worse in the West this coming winter that last season. I hope I'm wrong, but I didn't buy anything ski related after January.

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The last hot summer was 1992 and 92-93 ski season wasn't so bad. It's a weak correlation, but I'm hanging on to it.

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Originally Posted by Buster Highmen

The last hot summer was 1992 and 92-93 ski season wasn't so bad. It's a weak correlation, but I'm hanging on to it.

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Oh, I hope I'm wrong but the weather pattern hasn't changed much for two years now. There have been a few breakdowns of this high pressure over the PNW during late winter/early spring and in the fall but it always rebounds just as strong as before. Signs are pointing to it hanging on for a while. If I want to continue skiing it might be time to buy a boat.

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Originally Posted by Plainview

Unfortunately, the bottom line is it doesn't really matter what's causing it. Even if it's human caused, there isn't shit we can do about it at this point. Humans aren't going to change their ways on a large scale until forced to, and that's going to take catastrophic events, and even then there isn't anything to be done. Even if we stopped all human caused carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions tomorrow the changes to the atmosphere's composition are pretty significant at this point and it would take a long, long time (if it ever happens) for things to return to pre-industrial levels.

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Very well put. We is fucked.

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Originally Posted by Bunion

Very well put. We is fucked.

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Of course we are. I think scientists, as well as governments around the world, have known this for a while. Imagine what would happen if they came right out and said that because of climate change/global warming that we're fucked and there's not a damn thing we can do about it? At this point it doesn't matter what the cause is, it's happening and all we can do is sit back and watch.

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Originally Posted by AaronWright

Of course we are. I think scientists, as well as governments around the world, have known this for a while. Imagine what would happen if they came right out and said that because of climate change/global warming that we're fucked and there's not a damn thing we can do about it? At this point it doesn't matter what the cause is, it's happening and all we can do is sit back and watch.

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A lot of scientists have been saying that for a while.

At this rate, in 2100 the atmosphere will be about 1000 ppm CO2. Possibly higher if we start thawing significant amounts of permafrost.

We're definitely fucked if we tell ourselves that over and over rather than actually doing anything to save ourselves and the world as we know it for generations like all of our ancestors did when they encountered problems, albeit they seemed to lack the ability to destroy the Earth's entire ecosystem like we do now. We already have the means to manufacture all of our energy from non carbon sources. We just don't feel the urgency or have the desire to speed up the transition. And even if the crowd that thinks we are already past the tipping point and headed to rapid human extinction is correct it is hard to argue that the more we do the more time we buy. So I discount the notion that we say fuck it. I'm never going to be a world beating extreme skier but that doesn't stop me from trying to be a bad ass on skis. Failure isn't even part of the equation. Our time here is just a journey anyway and then we pass this world to others.

I was listening to Iowa Public Radio the other day and they had a special about the passenger pigeons. About the relentless advancement of human technology that allowed pigeoners to gradually become so good at killing pigeons to satisfy massive market demand for fresh birds that despite warnings of a coming extinction they systematically wiped them out. But the deniers held strong that they were not extinct just as they hold strong that global warming is anything but the crisis it really is. They would claim that they had just flown somewhere else for the year because it was common for the nomadic flocks to not travel through an area for a year or two at a time. Henry Ford claimed the flocks simply flew offshore into the Pacific somewhere. Kind of like killer heat waves and the reciprocating cold spells that are peppering us now...they will pass and normalcy will return just as the pigeons did...except they never came back and eventually it could no longer be denied and 'Martha', the one pigeon left, became a famous ambassador for her species, for conservation and the impact the markets can have when we let unregulated pressures of this powerful force decide the winners and losers without weighing the costs to the natural world, and for our utter helplessness when we ignore the canary in coal mine.

John Herald: Martha

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Originally Posted by k2skier112

So you have no clue about what's actually happening, but you talk like your a climatologist, mmm, ok.
No links..of course not. Just propaganda from faux news...

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...ent-years.html

A new study published online today in the journal Science finds that the rate of global warming during the last 15 years has been as fast as or faster than that seen during the latter half of the 20th Century. The study refutes the notion that there has been a slowdown or "hiatus" in the rate of global warming in recent years.

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Dude the flat trend I was talking about is mentioned in the article you posted --> "As stated by the IPCC, the "hiatus" period 1998-2012 is short and began with an unusually warm El Niño year." So fuck you and your asshole comment, Dick. I am not a faux news loving idiot!! :p

Anyhow I had not seen the last 3 years of added data. It does open things up a bit. Crazy to think they were so high that even coupled with the years of flat the 15 year period is the fastest warming period yet. wow. I cant read the actual paper because its firewalled but im anxious to read some experts opinion on it.

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Originally Posted by Buster Highmen

I don't read it that way at all. Cliff Mass is great: he blasts the positional bullshit on both sides of the global warmingz issues, but steadfastly and scientifically maintains that it's an excellent theory. In a nutshell he's saying that current PNW weather is very likely representative of average weather around 2100.

If anything, the journalist in that article pumps the hysteria point of view, but at most slights Cliff Mass for suggesting that the current PNW torridity isn't manmade.

My take away is that the positional hysteria exists on both sides of the issue and the smart thing to do is to keep gathering data and be willing to let your personal paradigms be replaced by some potential polemic.

FWIW, I still distrust GMOs and there's a lot of data regarding the rise of allergies let alone the stupidity of monoculture to leave an enormous weight against the convenience and 'cost to results' benefits of GMOs. Again, neither position is clear to me and I'm leery of taking up an instrument in either band.

But I think we do agree on the hysteria hyping of doom and gloom or the head in the sand refusal to acknowledge the piles of data supporting climate change.

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I was not talking about stuff you or others posted in here-> I was referring to the comments in Cliff's blog. I seem to recall several comments trying to disprove his ideas with flawed studies/data.

well the IPCC equates half of the warming to humans so if we did everything we could we would only slow it.

the question I find interesting -> is it dangerous? some of you think we are totally fucked. what is the best evidence that supports this? OTOH what evidence is there that its a positive?

Canadian and Russian farmers should like climate change...
Folks livin on eastern seaboard, Pacific atolls, SE Asia, SW US, Africa. - notsomuch

All I know is it is bleeding hot where I live. Hotter than normal. Day 9 of triple digits. Currently at 10am it is over 90 degrees. It was 105 yesterday. Each day it feels worse. If this is to be the new normal I'm sure it will shorten my life span. It is very hard to do anything and I've noticed a decline in my overall abilities. It is simply exhausting.

yup same here KQ. Cant keep the garden weeded, plants are burnt. Mowing and string trimming, nope. Not only too hot im scared of starting a fire. Pastures are basically dead and burnt we are already supplementing hay. Usually dont start doing that until mid Aug. Positive is that the warm spring gave us a bumper crop of very nice hay. That helps feeders but hurts haymakers as hay prices are less than half of last years so most are loosing money as fertilizer was sky high this spring.

I hope Cliff Mass is right.

I dunno about human extinction but a drastically warmer planet will wreak havoc on food production.

Even if more Northern climates become favorable to growing food from a temperature perspective you have problems with light and growing seasons. If once productive areas become arid, how are we going to grow enough food to feed an ever expanding human population?

Like I said, dunno about extinction, humans have big brains and my guess is a few will figure out how to eke out an existence, but there will eventually be major upheavals unless we figure out ways to grow enough food to feed everyone.

I have this sci-fi vision of giant atmospheric scrubbers powered by solar and tidal action floating in the oceans that remove CO2 and other gases from the air...

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Originally Posted by Plainview

I dunno about human extinction but a drastically warmer planet will wreak havoc on food production.

Even if more Northern climates become favorable to growing food from a temperature perspective you have problems with light and growing seasons. If once productive areas become arid, how are we going to grow enough food to feed an ever expanding human population?

Like I said, dunno about extinction, humans have big brains and my guess is a few will figure out how to eke out an existence, but there will eventually be major upheavals unless we figure out ways to grow enough food to feed everyone.

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This is more along the lines of what I was thinking when I said "we're fucked". Extinction is a long, long way off but life as we know it, especially as our children know it, is going to change drastically in the next 50-100 years.

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Originally Posted by Plainview

I dunno about human extinction but a drastically warmer planet will wreak havoc on food production.

Even if more Northern climates become favorable to growing food from a temperature perspective you have problems with light and growing seasons. If once productive areas become arid, how are we going to grow enough food to feed an ever expanding human population?

Like I said, dunno about extinction, humans have big brains and my guess is a few will figure out how to eke out an existence, but there will eventually be major upheavals unless we figure out ways to grow enough food to feed everyone.

I have this sci-fi vision of giant atmospheric scrubbers powered by solar and tidal action floating in the oceans that remove CO2 and other gases from the air...

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its a cool thought but physics says even if all kinds of tech is invented to stave off gw, if growth continues earth will be a shithole. eventually. energy doesnt magically appear out of thin air and turn into additional humans. it has to come from somewhere, be it an ore vein, the sun, or tidal power generation. when its diverted for human use there are impacts/long term ramifications whether we like to admit it or not.

just pick what kind of shithole you want. the current growth model doesnt really leave much room for anything cool like wildlife or mountains. i mean sure, you can make parks/whatever, but sooner or later someones is gonna wanna go in there and extract and the current model will make it happen.

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Originally Posted by Plainview

I dunno about human extinction but a drastically warmer planet will wreak havoc on food production.

Even if more Northern climates become favorable to growing food from a temperature perspective you have problems with light and growing seasons. If once productive areas become arid, how are we going to grow enough food to feed an ever expanding human population?

Like I said, dunno about extinction, humans have big brains and my guess is a few will figure out how to eke out an existence, but there will eventually be major upheavals unless we figure out ways to grow enough food to feed everyone.

I have this sci-fi vision of giant atmospheric scrubbers powered by solar and tidal action floating in the oceans that remove CO2 and other gases from the air...

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we can go back to eating what were once staples of the native American's diets - things we now call weeds and spray for such as pig weed aka Amaranthus palmeri. It grows like crazy when it gets hot and dry.

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Originally Posted by Plainview

Even if more Northern climates become favorable to growing food from a temperature perspective you have problems with light and growing seasons. If once productive areas become arid, how are we going to grow enough food to feed an ever expanding human population?

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Well it kinda seems favorable to food production as we are already seeing increased greening. 14% over 28 years. http://www.globalwarming.org/2013/10...ing-the-earth/

Also I think growing season is basically dependent on temp and daylight hours? I know day length gets longer the closer one gets to the poles. FWIW I have seen some photos of some massive veggies in Alaska. A lot of productive land will be lost but at the same time a lot of land will become productive. Like all of siberia and northern canada and alaska.... thats a shitload of land.

its not just daylight hours. its mainly angle of incidence/sun intensity. im sure im wasting my time here. consumers like you tend to believe whatever they want - whatever validates their consumption, cuz consumption is fun - taking is fun. dont think about, just consume. its fun.