This Canadien digital tax was passed in 2024?
And you guys are giving trump shit? While you tax yourselves to death?
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This Canadien digital tax was passed in 2024?
And you guys are giving trump shit? While you tax yourselves to death?
FIFYQuote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
IANOD, but if there's an OCD coping tool that would help keep you more objective in the presence of deJong's posts it would benefit us all.
shit is off the hook in scummit county coloradoQuote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
not enough workers too many jobs going on the boom keeps booming here
but hey every tom dick harry and rachel the realtor are saying all the same dumb shit that they said right before the 2008 collapase many people were'nt part of that or were too young to remember or they forgot since the average attention span of someone is a few days
building starts are down all over the country
my only argument about wages is that a huge percentage of skilled workers are going to bail on the building industry when a down turn hits
guys are aging out anyways kids think they can learn everything in a month or two and they are highly skilled
so wages might dip but they will only go back up even higher guys like me and the guys I employee will sit at home at this point instead of taking shit wages
lucky for me I planned on quiting this summer anyways so I timed the market perfectly bailed on 3 jobs I was suppose to start and I'm going to enjoy myself and travel for the next year or so and yeah buy low this winter
^^^ The core members of the construction teams I work with are all 50+ and know their shit inside and out or are < 30 with not much experience. The old guys are all saying (this is the last one). Good thing we have a lot of Hispanics to do the hard work.
You did not "fix it". A recession is defined as a period of declining economic activity starting with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, rising unemployment, and falling asset prices. Stagflation, on the other hand, combines stagnant economic growth with high inflation and high unemployment. In other words, the difference between the two is falling vs rising prices.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jono
Perhaps in the future you should try to be more objective in your own kneejerk defense of poorly informed posts
The point is you can have both. Just as stagflation implies very minimal growth but high inflation, it's possible to go into slight shrinking with still high inflation, which is why a recession *should* lower prices, but may not do so when stagflation is "blowing through the economy."
The point is you can have one or the other, but not both. The reason why it matters is because they require different policy responses
whats the chances J Powell finds a new job
a yes man is appointed interest rates are cut 2% immediatly
A feeding frenzy starts again on real estate
corporate debts jumps up high on all that cheap money and the stock market is at 50K
I think we are close to being in a fiscally dominate regime. That means government policy matters as much as what the Fed does. So Trump might get his new Chair. But policy is still made by committee. And even if the Fed cuts, markets not the Fed, set borrowing rates. So instead expect shenanigans with the Fed’s balance sheet to finance backdoor spending blurring the separation between monetary from fiscal policy. So probably yes to cheap-er money but if so also financial repression too. What that means is Bessent might be able to lower rates somewhat but rates are probably going to stay high. We can be pretty sure rates are not going back down to the levels of the 2010s.
^^ thanks
so like socialism
Yeah, in the sense not only is there no plan to reduce long-term debt we're going to add trillions of dollars of new debt resulting in a depreciated dollar, lower growth, and higher interests rates compared with the past
This is excellent news. I think you can trade on that if we do wind up in a low growth, high inflation scenario. Let's say about 9% inflation and 0.2% growth? You can just wait until growth ticks down by 0.3% or more for 2 quarters in a row and go all in betting that inflation will fall 10%. Short TIPS? Maybe something with leverage?Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
All it takes to make a trillion dollars is confidence and unfailing accuracy. You have at least one of these, please don't let it go to waste! And please remember us maggots with a million or two when you get there. TIA
Not sure if it's smart taking investment advice from a guy who argued just a few months ago not to "fight the Fed" on interest rates falling dramatically. How'd that bet work out? But okay, I'm game, let's say the economy is transitioning from stagnant economic growth and increasing inflation to negative economic growth and decreasing inflation or recession with disinflation. Not much to go on in your toy scenario but since that's all it is, shorting TIPs might work, betting on Long-Term Treasuries (Towards the Peak of Rates), Value Stocks & Dividends (Late Recession, Early Recovery), etc.
Just a bit of economic history, the 1970s decade of stagflation real GDP growth averaged 3.2-percent
I don't think you know what I said about fighting the fed, but at any rate the fed hasn't unsuccessfully tried to cut rates yet so nothing has worked out either way. When they decide to lower them and you decide to raise them then please let me know how it goes.
Yeah, and very few people made money in the 70sQuote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk
And the 1970s required a different policy response, too
I already did let you know how it went. And I do know what you said. You said in a discussion about bringing down longer-term borrowing costs via 10-year Treasury yields, "What is it they say about fighting the Fed again? Do it? Don't do it?" I wrote in response, "Treasury and the Fed might be able to make some short-term impact [via yield curve management] but it is mostly contingent on a host of other policy consequences." ... "we're close to the neutral rate given current macro/fiscal conditions so I'm not sure what fighting the Fed means in this environment. They cut 100 basis points last year and long term yields rose."Quote:
Originally Posted by Jono
The discussion was forward-looking, as is appropriate for this thread. I figured that went without saying, which was apparently my mistake, since now you're saying you think past events provide proof of what might happen under a different, dramatically less far-sighted regime in the future, right?
Apologies, I had forgotten that you agreed about what might happen in the future in the event they decide to act in an ill-advised manner under direction from a guy who makes that his signature move. No idea how you could support any kind of accusation based on this, but I guess now that's your signature move.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
I am getting more and more convinced MV is an AI Bot designed to argue about damn near anything.
^^^ Fact.
^^^ fiction. And. lol, bunion has what 24,000 posts arguing in Polyass?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jono
The discussion was forward looking and your response shows that you still can't comprehend what's happening in debt markets. And it's not so much agreeing as pointing out that yield curve management just isn't a very powerful tool in this environment.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jono
Per the discussion on the previous page about debt markets, tariffs etc., and not just in the United States but across the world, this is the fiscal equivalent of war. Globalization is under stress, defensive military pacts are more technicality than reality, and we're seeing an end to American fiscal responsibility. These are not independent things. They're disrupting the US market for long term Treasuries. That's why Trump TACO-ed from his extremely high tariff rates. Unless things calm down we're going to see reduces economic growth and even more stress on government budgets.
typical ai bot response…
Ahhh the razor sharp wit of an eight year old autistic boy
It's funny that you should bring up the spectrum since I was just thinking maybe that's the issue. People further away from you tend to make more use of subtle language and it seems like you often miss that and take irony literally. Paired with your superiority the result tends to be offensive and here we are.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
In all seriousness and respect, I know a few people whose lives have been improved by recognizing their autism and then learning not to be surprised by it when interacting with others who aren't always as literal.
This forum used to be particularly full of subtle irony, and probably will be again.
I find you funny too Jono, like an overfed, self-satisfied cat, oozing smugness
Like Bunion, I buy pants at Costco, so you do you.
In case there's a glimmer of intellectual curiosity, though, anyone still using autism as a pejorative may have a blind spot. It's a spectrum, everyone's on it.
Thank god for the tone police. Is this how things become fun again, or is it now that you're here, fun never stood a chance?
"I am getting more and more convinced MV is an AI Bot designed to argue about damn near anything"
"Fact"
So it's not just me? Good to know.
I know you don't understand subtlety, so I'll spell out one last thing for you: IDGAF about tone and I see no value in turning against "autism" like the "R" word. I'm literally saying, in order to think of autism as a pejorative you have to have a negative view of it, which is 100% consistent with being in denial.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
Join us: buy some pants at Costco. Put your ego aside and begin your journey.
I don't think of autism as a pejorative. And I don't have a negative view of it. I think you're a neurotic, tedious, self-absorbed stuffed cabbage who looks like he's seen the softer side of Sears
OK, the quality of insults finally convinced me.Quote:
Originally Posted by m2711c
Now I feel torn between being saddened at what we give up in terms of quality flame wars and impressed that agentic AI can not only use le TRGs (in 2025!) but also take such a good run at the Turing test.
lol,, I've been waiting for my Jerantulas to arrive long before LLMs were a thing
I was curious if it's necessary to ask ChatGPT to include inane half-hearted ad homs about other posters in every response or if that just happens automatically when you say "write a response in the style of Multiverse." It sounds like it's probably a specific instruction, though, like giving it a set of jargon terms to use in case it's challenged.
Most disappointing response on repeat. Just glitching on the same boring talking point. Is there anything your LLM does well?
Everyone is so ornery these days... must be summer
You win, I'm impressed.
I have a friend that thinks we should create an agentic AI trader with some niche strategy but I'm a little skeptical about handing over passwords to something that can front run my trades. I guess TRG passwords are less important, but still an impressive step.
I refuse to believe you've managed "set it and forget it," though. Which one are you using? Do you have to read every response before approving? How often do you have to give it more input?
back on topicthe truth is no one knows what is going to happen
we can all grab a headline and an idea and pretend we know the outcome
all we know is things are very unstable markets don't like instabilitywe know the gov't keeps mortgaging the future which is absurd
consumer debt and spending will have a reckoning no matter what any data says
my data says at least one person in scummit county bought high took a cash out loan against the house pissed it away and now they are underwater hoping to get top dollar for a shit hole house
I am just waiting for my broken clock to be right twice in my life.
It is true that nobody knows for certain what is going to happen, but the Fed chair and his team of hundreds of Ph.D. Economists and their well developed forecasting models are certainly in a better position to assess how tariffs are going to affect inflation than MV is.Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
It's silly how two words "demand destruction" have created so much push-back Since appeals to authority seem to be the only thing that matters let me paraphrase for the Fed. There's uncertainty. If companies raise prices to cover the cost of tariffs, consumers may resist and reduce their spending, leading to demand destruction. If tariffs are primarily borne by US consumers, they can lead to depressed both US and global growth. There are also a host of inflationary forces acting on the economy. Tariffs too. There's not a simple one-to-one correlation