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Just a few million peoples opinion, but hey, what can you buy with an opinion, nothing. I appreciate your optimism to offset my pessimism. Just be careful, as I think it is likely the S&P ends up in the mid 800 range at some point in the next few months. Safer to be out now, but if you have the balls to buy for the bounce, good on ya.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Except GS is up 2% today....Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Of course they are as a prime recipient of PPT support. But in the long run the continued litigation will hurt them IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by Missing Sock
maybe, but 2 months out is hardly considered the long runQuote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Class actions of this type are basically a non-event. Interesting reading sometimes but often just boring templatesQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Reason I do the GS trade (out of the money puts every six months) is so I don't have to watch the ticker. If this batch expires worthless I'll just do it again but on Jan 11. It's basically just a hedge.Quote:
Originally Posted by Missing Sock
Gettin close to a bottom. 9600 on the DOW is my guess.
Your guess might be a bit on the high side according to some.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moeghoul
Quote:
Yes, the game may be "in the refrigerator," the lights will go out, but as Soros hints, the electricity may get turned off too. Get it? This may not be a correction. Not even a bear. What's coming could be worse than the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2008 meltdown combined, a "Super-Bubble" says Soros. And the biggest reason, Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm tell Newsweek, is that "the president's half-measures won't fix our failed financial system" because he refuses to "bust up the too-big-to-fail banks."
Yes, Congress will pass something. But unfortunately, as reported on MSNBC, Senator Dodd, the reform bill's sponsor, is a turncoat, working overtime with Wall Street lobbyists "to weaken financial reform," leave us vulnerable to a new, bigger crash in the near future. And Wall Street lobbyists are spending hundreds of millions to kill reform.
'White Swans:' 2000 and 2008 crashes were predictable, next one too
Recently Roubini was interviewed by Charlie Rose in BusinessWeek. His message confirms the worst. Roubini was questioned about his new book, "Crisis Economics." Rose began by asking, "what have we learned from these crises of capitalism?" Roubini could easily have said, "nothing, we learned nothing." His actual reply:
"The first lesson is that crises are not 'black swan' events ... they're not just random outcomes. They are the result of a buildup of financial and policy vulnerability and mistakes -- excessive risk-taking, leverage, debt, and so on." They are 'White Swans' "because these events are predictable. But generation after generation, we seem to forget the past. When there's a bubble, there's euphoria. There's irrational exuberance. Consumers can use their homes like ATM machines. Governments and policy makers are happy because they get reelected. Wall Street makes billions of dollars of profits. Everybody's delusional."
Sound familiar? Yes indeed, in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff pinpoint the key signal that will blow the whistle and call the game: The "90% ratio of government debt to GDP is a tipping point in economic growth." For 800 years "you increase it over and beyond a high threshold, and boom!"
Warning, fans, the numbers on the game-clock are flashing wildly. America's ratio is now 92%, thanks to Obama's $1.7 trillion budget, future deficits, exploding debt. Soon, Ka-Booom! Another great nation bites the dust. Depression follows. Goodbye retirement.
Warning: 800 years of history are calling 'game over'
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
Roubini has been bearish for 4000 dow points..
Today was like the rumble in the jungle when ali said to foreman and in this case the bulls to the bears, "is that all you got?" Gave the bears the ole rope-a-dope.
Fact is, it was so quiet after the opening spin a rally was inevitable. A bit of premium on the futures right now. Deutsche Bank is trading at 4.5 EPS..
True, and then you have the flip side of the coin with the Fed talking bullish on the economy. With respect to DB, who knows what they are on the hook for with loans to the PIGS. Suppose Germany would bail them out like U.S. did with AIG.
As always - the last 2 hours - are the PPT's best - (just like last Friday)
And many many many times - last year - last 2 hours
(you can almost set your watch to it)
If that were true you should be a very rich man following the predictability. It's all in your mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Futures above 1080 right now. 1100 is easy from here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Roubini is too smart to predict short term stock market valuations. Everybody wants to slot him as the anti Cramer, but he's above that. Cramer, as he has said, is a buffoon.
If I had the balls to trade my gut feelings, I would be richer, as my gut told me the market would close about where it did today, when I thought we were down 300+ points.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
From yesterdays post: "A - Risk markets can stabilize/rally a tad this week, perhaps a little into the week after, but overall there is a decent chance of a VERY SERIOUS risk asset sell-off late May/early June into late June/early Jul....I am talking ANOTHER 10%/10%+ off S&P from here".
So we will see. Either way, I am out for now and will only be doing the occasional SDS trade.
not knocking your trade at all, didn't mean it to come off that way.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau
Being bearish while the market goes up 4000 points to be proven right when it sinks what- 1000 points- makes you too smart? Cramer, while an entertainer on his show, didnt get rich being a dumbass.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Look at the chart on the right. WTF???? http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/6794/dowjones.png Photo chopped? Still pretty funny.
You haven't actually listened to the man. He's a macroeconomist, an academic, not a market analyst or hired gun, or screaming buffoon on the TV. He hasn't been wrong much at all in those terms for five or six years. He does sell books and operates a pay web site, and probably commands a nice speaking fee, but I'm sure all of that couldn't buy enough toilet paper to fill Lloyd Blankfein's Hampton beach house.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Here's a recent talk. How many times does he mention the stock market?
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/293525-2
Best opening line I have every heard from a person on a finance show. The Scottish hedge-fund dood is my fucking hero. He totally blows out the Columbia professor that is in for extend and pretend and debt slavery.
[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuysYXlJ43I&feature=player_embedded"]YouTube- Newsnight 26th May, Hugh Hendry 'I would recommend you panic'[/nomedia]
That's a great clip. I think the EU zone might just go into a recession (if not already in one) no matter what the gov'ts do there.
And isn't there a clip somewhere of Cramer talking about how the hedge funds would manipulate a stock by floating rumors to the financial media? And how feckles the SEC is?
Up 285. I'll take it.
Deutsche Bank DB up 8.5%
Bought into UCO yesterday morning. Feelin it
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Nice to get a good fill like that. What's your timeframe?
Im not sure this is going to be a long term thing, but as long as the economy doesnt throw out some stinkbomb news, it should be ok to ride back up to the $11 range at least.
Oil had settled around what- $80 a month or so ago, and that is somewhere around 13 for UCO. Id probably bail around then and find something else, unless its rolling. But at the slightest sign of weakness Im out. Thats what usually happens with me, especially in something real macro-intensive. Then its a good bet to pick it back up when panic had set in and the price is right again.
I would love to short Eur but that means buying USD - which is even more vomit-inducing.
The flight to safety mentality is something else though. Gold at 1700 per ounce in Greece spot market. TIPS at 105. That usually is at par; never expected a capital gain out of TIP
Awesome - didn't know Jeffrey Sachs was such a pretentious boorQuote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski