So fvkng good. Going to have an aneurysm laughing too hard!Quote:
Originally Posted by kokomas
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So fvkng good. Going to have an aneurysm laughing too hard!Quote:
Originally Posted by kokomas
That snl skit was awesome. The timing. The cast. The writing. The Acting. Unbelievable that was a live show.
Thx koko
Just coming back to say I watched that three times. It’s so good.
And also. Les Trois Tétons. Aussi avec le grand Téton.
Magnifique
Ha. Yea I have it usually to buy gear but your pic made me chuckle. Never made a waffle up there. Had a waffle party one year when we obtained some boxes of waffle mix. Based on past el Nino winters, I suspect pow is in our future.Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
Um, No.
El Ninos:
Very strong -
'15/'16 = 350" in Rbowl over 135 day season
Strong -
'91/'92 = 162" " " ".
'87/'88 = 301"
Moderate -
'86/'87 = 175"
'94/'95 = 296"
'02/'03 = 327"
'09/'10 = 325"
Weak -
'04/'05 = 285"
'06/'07 = 217"
'14/'15 = 238"
10 El Ninos of varying strengths average 268" from Turkey day to closing.
This year is predicted as strong to very strong.
'91/'92 was brutalissimo.
An unfortunate reality.... but there will be some 🤘Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
Last year was fat. This year may be boneyard. We'll know in April.
What are we gonna do?Quote:
Originally Posted by byates1
Roadtrip!
YurpQuote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
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Amazing — love the snowfall analysis tied into the weather pattern. Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
Any sense of how those numbers compare for reference to La Niña years — and "normal" seasons?
Skied a bit of due north-facing powder today — better than expected for how dry it has been.
Thanks for that analysis DJ! One other factor for this winter is it is looking like it is going to be very warm globally. Not sure how that will play out locally, but it doesn't sound great to me.
What's average of all years for snowfall in R Bowl?
What was the 1996 aka ninety sick, total snowfall at Rbowl? I was there early December that year and everything was filled in. Alta Chutes were smooth. Then I went to Steamboat in the middle of January. Jeez, they set a record at the time for snowfall in the month of January in Colorado - something like 300 inches on Storm Peak? If they didn't groom some blue trails, it was too deep and not steep enough to barely ski straight down (Sunshine area). And it was my first snowcat trip - back when it was the original Jupiter Jones outfit - priceless.
It was also the year that I bought new K2 Big Kahunas. And they ripped.
WMD! I was thinking about you the other day, wondering how central wyo was treating you. When ya coming over?Quote:
Originally Posted by WMD
The totals used to be easy to figure; now with the new site, some data like this is more complicated. Other stuff easier.
Off the top of my head, I'd say Rbowl averages 425-475 a year.
Ninety Sick, Ninety Heaven.Quote:
Originally Posted by RUBBERDUCK
Got a fuckton in December - 225", 128" in January, 69" in Feb., 78" to finish.
463" during the season with another 80" before opening.
That season was door to door opening and full coverage before opening day.
My first season skiing thru a neck deep drift of snow, just below meet yer maker.
For years, closing day total was recorded on a 2x6 shelf post in the pipechase room at the tram building.
Here's a coupla pics from bitd...
Attachment 476793
Attachment 476794
In '94, Public works was renamed Buildings & Grounds...B&G = PW
The online numbers don't always jibe, which is weird.
‘96/‘97 was my last season. The tram opened first day and it was walk on until the holidays. That December was incredible and it just kept snowing….thanks for the memories DJQuote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
Building on Djongo's post — I used the "board" totals from one post and subtracted out the "in-season" totals.
Very strong -
'15/'16 = 350"
Strong -
'91/'92 = 162" +92" pre-season
'87/'88 = 301" +21" pre-season
Moderate -
'86/'87 = 175" +75" pre-season
'94/'95 = 296" +110" pre-season
'02/'03 = 327"
'09/'10 = 325"
Weak -
'04/'05 = 285"
'06/'07 = 217"
'14/'15 = 238"
I tried to quickly look up some historical data but it looks like the much of the pre-2020 data was wiped from BTAC and some other sources I checked were conflicting. Even the archived reports post-2020 from BTAC seem to have eliminated the daily reporting of snow depth/season-to-date snowfall—bummer!
The scant data we do have above suggests that El Niño years produce below-average snowfall totals. Even though 2 of the 3 "strong"/"very strong" years identified by Djongo are fairly solid for JHMR-season snowfall (compared to other El Niño years), if you factor in the fact that we've had almost no snow so far that is means we are tracking for a sub-400" year.
Of course, things could change and that is a projection from limited data.
I did find 60cm of settled snow at 10,500' the other day — and nice powder skiing.
Thanks for the awesome info!Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
I'll be over at least a few days this winter and I'll give ya a holler so we can meet up and make a few turns! That would be awesome! I may have teenage kids in tow...
Thanks for the awesome info!Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
I'll be over at least a few days this winter and I'll give ya a holler as it would be awesome to meet up and make some turns! I may have teenage boys in tow...
The last few years I've been dealing with injuries but hopefully this year I'm ready to ski a bit harder again.
I was morbidly going to look up avy fatalities on these lean el niño years but haven’t gotten around to it yet.
Djongo - cool analysis and it got me digging into datasets for my region.Quote:
Originally Posted by upallnight
You could say that both previous strong El Niño s had multiple feet of reported preseason snowfall. Since you’ve had almost zero reported preseason snowfall, this strong el nino breaks from the historical “trends” with data size 2, hah! Anything can happen. Think positive thoughts and the pow turns will come :)
I've been trying to not jinx the season by speculating how it's gonna go.
Just general observations.
I've seen enough low seasons to not really care anymore; obviously I want a deep season, but ya can't predict those either.
We just had 3 consecutive La Ninas and 2 were great and one was epically lean. There are just no guarantees, even with a solid trend.
When it snows a lot, I get tunnel vision and it's a blur of pow turns and tram lines.
My second season here was maybe the worst so I got immunized early against low snow angst.
And I bought the add on Ikook pass planning on good snow in places I'd like to visit finally. So, If gas prices would go down, I might be motoring around chasing storms.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Holla WMD, been a while. Be glad to turn with you and the kids.
I hear ya on that. I spent 8 years of my life living in Kodiak, AK. About a 40% chance you are going to get stuck in Anchorage or Kodiak when your flights get cancelled for 1-3 days because clouds are on the deck.Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
After a few ruined vacations, ruined getting homes, I learned that you can't control the weather and am much more at peace with it. Luckily snow or lack thereof is not tied to my well financial well being...
It is what it is.
Le tits now. (at some point)
My choice of years to spend 5 weeks in Wydaho couldn't have been worse, eh? We still had a great time but I'll be sitting this year out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
Average for JHMR 8250' is 370"Quote:
Originally Posted by upallnight
https://bestsnow.net/
That website sucks but the data is legit and not ski resort marketing #s. I'd assume 8250 is a snotel site (and probably not where JHMR reports from)
If you click the el nino/la nina tab on that site you'll see the historical snowfall for those events too. Jackson sits at 88% of normal during el ninos and 112% of normal during la ninas.
almost too convenient of a statistic…Quote:
Originally Posted by jtran10
Marketing has almost nothing to do with the numbers. Patrol and the snow/avy seniors do the daily reporting from automated study plots.Quote:
Originally Posted by jtran10
'8250 is roughly mid mountain. There's an established station at '8180. Not snotel.
That much numbers crunching always seems to miss the finer details. Probably pretty close tho.
Impossible to read for more than 3 minutes.
Solid answer. This is the good stuff, areas favored by El Nino. Hope it's true for you down there RAhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...fbe71006d7.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by jtran10
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Rendezvous Plot (that DJongo referenced) is at ~9,600. Definitely different stats (=more snow) than 8,250.Quote:
Originally Posted by jtran10
The resort's marketing department seems to have a simple process: pick the higher of the Rendezvous plot or Raymer (Near the Gondi @ 9,360'). The reporting from those stations is automated; anyone can see the data in 15' increments. They are cleared once a day in the morning by patrol.
Can't really game the plots — but picking the better of the two can be gamed. They are often pretty close, but as you can imagine on a big mountain two plots can — and sometimes do — vary by quite a bit.
The "selective" average is around 460 from October 1 to season's end (early April).
Sure, you can game em. Just walk up and sprinkle some snow in the box. Ya think?
Awesome data. That .88, 1.2 is stuck in my head now.
A nice-looking waitress at the trap told me to freeze a trail map. Why not.
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In 15’ increments all night?Quote:
Originally Posted by lindenle
If you have the time lolQuote:
Originally Posted by upallnight
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Dang, Love the vintage look at the Tram Board Djongo...
bringing back fond memories of '88-'89. woohoo!
notable gap of '89-'90?
That's sort of the norm but it doesn't feel like that right now. It's sort of feeling mega drought-y all across the west. I don't trust the historical norms any longer anyways. Last years La Nina was massive down here, statically breaking that norm. The last few storms went just north of us, much like the way last years La Nina systems dipped just south of the PNW. So far it looks like it flip flopped and it also feels like we just flip flopped with Europe. Europe is getting snow and we are looking like they did last year going into December.Quote:
Originally Posted by kokomas
It might be one super sweet winter to spend predominately riding bikes in the desert. That won't hurt my feelings at all.
Isn't Alaska the only place in NA getting it right now? Alta has nice records to compare last 15 years, there's rarely enough snow to make this season look out of the ordinary so far.
I won't resign myself to low snow brain until sometime in January. Everything can change very fast.
For decades the village opened on the 1st Saturday in December and closed on the 1st Sunday in April. 16 weeks per Forest service/ NPS agreements. A week was added once in a while, but it rarely was worth it. Too little snow in April or just too few skiers to be cost efficient.
Some years back, we went to a Thanksgiving opening and it's rarely good to start. This year they added a week to end. In an El Nino season, that shows a lack of foresight.
The village has always been notoriously slow starting. The nkotb's are always worried about the lack of snow early.
Yesterday at the vill, lotsa new workers walking around getting their bearings. All showed a high level of cluelessness. It was depressing.
JH used to have tons of applicants with miles of experience. Nowadays, the ineptitude is palpable at every turn.
Poor lifty gal for Sweetwater needed new boots at resort store. Instead of getting her on some rentals for a week until the employee sale, they just sold her new boots. 10% off instead of 40-50% off.
Oh, the douchebaggery of that company. They stand on how great their employees are and how much they bring to the table. It's laughable when it's not pathetic.
Luckily, we can almost completely detach from the corporates after buying a pass.
Just don't get in trouble. They have serious issues in the risk assessment department these days.
Not so incredible images, but hey — how many times do you see not one but TWO grizz just a head of you in the skintrack!
Attachment 477067
Attachment 477068
Attachment 477069
Definitely altered my plans a bit. Found some dry powder, which was not bad for basically zero snow in 3 weeks.
^^Wow very cool!
Dang.
Damn.Quote:
Originally Posted by upallnight
What's the Mondopoint on that bear?
Snows coming! You never know, every year is a little different.Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained