We had hail at the house and rain in the valley... came in hard. Wind ripped a sheet of the outside table off.
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We had hail at the house and rain in the valley... came in hard. Wind ripped a sheet of the outside table off.
2 inches of snow on top of a cm of ice this morning in Frisco.
I wonder if we hit 1,000,000 views this season
FIFY.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
09876
:fmicon:Quote:
Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark
I am still calling for a shitty season so long as Bama remains undefeated.
Long range models are trying to deepen and close off an incoming trough next week over the great basin. Looking late week we should see a good shift away from the warm temps we'll have this next few days.
AKA the "Bama Omega High Curse of the Montanaskier".Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
had I known selling my soul worked so well, I would have done it a long time ago...but perhaps for a little more personal gain.
It is it me or does it feel like the same pattern as last year is setting up with storms staying well to our Northwest?
It's only October 18th!!! Really?Quote:
Originally Posted by RonMexico
Dude, it's just you.Quote:
Originally Posted by RonMexico
so far it's happening opposite of last year, which I am fine with.Quote:
Originally Posted by RonMexico
it's just you, and nobody else.
super early still.....get back to me at Christmas if it's still dry and warm.
Fair enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
Hopefully Johnny football can do something about said curse this weekend then.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...temp_small.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
If you can get past the bad sentence structure and grammar you may enjoy or loathe the following story:
http://mtnweekly.com/global-warning-no-snow-35453
Earlier models were showing New Mexico, Arizona and Southern Colorado to be wet and cold things seemed to have changed..
its 80 degrees at the beach, water is unseasonably warm in the Pacific..
80 and sunny in Denver tomorrow... time to recruit some girls and revisit the Mile High Shore.
unless Manziel transferred to UT, then he gets to wait a few weeksQuote:
Originally Posted by homebrewd
everything is showing warmer than average weather for the winter. If the precip is there (equal chance) then as long as it falls as snow and not rain we should be ok and better than last year at least.
let's go Tennessee right?
i mean that's pretty much the only way this shit ends?
i mean above average? how much warmer could it be. i feel like it's been 40s and up since march.
Glad I tuned up my mtb...
Lots of quoting of the CPC Seasonal Outlooks happen here.
I started to wonder what skill level these Seasonal Outlooks have. Hence :
http://stk.tetongravity.com/forums/a...7&d=1350708935
http://stk.tetongravity.com/forums/a...8&d=1350708959
Attachment 123247
Attachment 123248
(The stats are for month 1 of the 3 month forecast with 0.5 month lead time for 1995-2012 are computed by NOAA, I just plotted them.)
First panel is skill over the entire map (US region), second panel is skill for the area that is colored in a map, third panel is the % of total area that is shaded. Whole range of skill scores is light grey, inter-quartile range, thick black line is the median skill. 100% = perfect skill, -50% = worst possible. This is a measure of how much more skill above complete chance the CPC Outlook gives. Skill is not very high at all for precip while temps have a bit of skill - seasonal forecasts are a very difficult problem. Anyway, I hope that gives some perspective on the CPC maps.
Also, the CPC's are not from a numerical model (like the 0-14 day weather forecasts). The CFS (Climate Forecast System) is one of eight or nine tools used by the seasonal forecasters. If you want the raw CFS prediction it's available elsewhere e.g. last year's CFS forecast of DJF precip. And to address the common question, weather & seasonal forecasts are initial value problems where specifics such as individual storms or sequences matter (and long term statistics are built in already), a climate model is a boundary value problem where longer term statistics are the aim.
sunny and 65 yesterday and today. Looks like cooler weather this weekend but I don't think much if any snow will fall. Might see an inch or two but nothing big I don't think. At least it will be a little cooler.
I say keep it warm/sunny/dry until late november...this weather is nice.Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
Things seem to be phasing together for the upslope this week.