Actually the "new" question you are referring to has been around since at least 2008.
https://blog.xkcd.com/2008/09/09/the...amn-treadmill/
It's a pretty good read and even using FBDs you can come to different conclusions based on your own assumptions, which everybody does.
If you assume that the wheels are free spinning and that the treadmill operates in the normal fashion(belt moving opposite of forward motion) and that it matches wheel rpm, the plane will take off. Theorizing that the rpm of the wheels will cause them to burn up isn't relevant because the plane will never go fast enough for that to happen before it takes off. It's not much different than a float plane or a plane on skids.
Of course if you make other assumptions you can conclude that the plane would remain stationary but most of these are physically impossible because a planes wheels only roll forward as the plane moves forward. So if you imagine a scenario like that the wheels will never spin. It's like when a pilot does a run up before take off, you can engage the brakes and increase thrust and the plane won't move. Release the brakes and the plane moves. The question asked is about a conveyor belt matching wheel speed. There can be no wheel speed if the plane isn't moving.