There's a fair amount of subjectivity involved, but a conviction move is price moving rapidly up or down without consolidation over time. Many instruments have prolonged periods of consolidation in ranges that can be wide or narrow, followed by violent new trends where the market seeks to find new value, an updated agreement on where price should be. Consolidation that was centered at 16,200 was a good indication that staying under it would trigger a push towards 12,000 that we see today.