Wildfire ‘24

https://heatmap.news/climate/los-ang...ntrolled-burns

Stephen Pyne: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...gy-1236110752/


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Second fire of the week near me in San Diego, thankfully calm wind today and air attack started very fast. Photo I took from office parking lot:
https://umtgriz.com/forum/random/PXL..._180617755.jpg

Yikes, I see there's an active fire in Rancho Bernardo. My parent live just to the east of the freeway, so it's west of them, but quite close.

yep, that is the one. If this had happened yesterday when it was windy, it would have been very bad.

SD fire has been busy this week and doing and doing an excellent job.

I thought that looked like the area, but lots of places around San Diego look a lot like that :)

Hughes Fire, near Lake Castaic. Not looking good at the moment.


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They built up the grapevine like that?

I’ll jump to conclusions, but maybe they shouldn’t have?

Does anyone have any ideas about what might be wrong with CE? I mean, I’m wondering.

Does anyone read his posts?

Check out the Jesse Kelly show. He's an AM radio shock jock

He's fighting hard again US Communism

Quote:

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Originally Posted by I Skied Bandini Mountain

Does anyone read his posts?

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Good point. I’ll go back to ignoring. Just that the last post was…weird. But I’ll focus now.

I’m pretty sure I know what he meant, but I’m not gonna help.


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Hughes fire just under 10,000 acres already and headed for Santa Clarita. Windy tomorrow again but rain in the forecast for Sat/Sun.

CA Fair plan posted reserves today of $4.8 billion in losses (reserve means we estimate we have at the high end $4.8 billion of payable losses). And they have assets of $377 M. Which has me confused as they collected $1.45 billion in premiums in 24, and the last major wildfires were a few years ago? Maybe the participating insurers were able to extract the rest as profits? It doesn’t really matter if that’s the case because all the participating insurers reinsure the fund and are on the hook for the losses that exceed the Fair Plans assets.

Also, the CA Wildfire Fund that pays for utility caused fires has about $14B in it. If the Eaton fire was caused by SoCal Edison that will likely exhaust it. There will be significant subrogation opportunities for carriers so that will ease the burden on the insurance market but damn. CA insurance is going to rapidly change. As someone with a Fair Plan policy I’m definitely not looking forward to renewal.


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Same. Very concerned.

When do we hit that point where the gov changes it all? There’s been talk in the state legislature for years to pull out of the NFIP and opt for a state funded program. Curious if that talk with be getting traction and include claims from fire and wind in certain zones.

The CA Fair plan does insure Windstorm in many cases so maybe that’s it? Hard to believe they would have $[emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]] + million in other losses.


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I’m thinking it’d be something different, state subsidized, and everybody pays into it. Which sounds crazy, but it’s what some seem to think what be an improvement to the NFIP (everybody pays into it). There’d be grant money for mitigation projects, like the federal flood mitigation assistance program, and community-based incentives for actions to mitigate the hazard for the entire community and reduce insurance rates, like the community rating system. IDK.

With Californias propensity to flood ala Ark Event I.e. $1T plus in losses I think California doing its own NFIP policy would be foolish.

I’ve said it before but I think one of the best options is for the CA Fair Plan to only offer Replacement cost policies with limits of around 75% of the cash value limit and if you hit the replacement cost limit they total your house condemn the land and turn the land over to the state. Insured gets the actual value of their house and can go buy elsewhere. This would only be for the worst high risk properties, maybe the ones that score 8 or 9 out of 10.

It wouldn’t be mandatory so if people wanted to buy private insurance they could but it’d be super expensive. (People often say, no one will insure my house except Fair Plan but that isn’t true. Lloyds Syndicates and other E&S carriers will insure it but it is super expensive. My quote from a Lloyds syndicate was three times the fair plan cost.)


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All this fake shit only drives up real estate costs, but that’s all anyone cares about m

Can’t afford the insurance? Pay less. But someone will always be stupid, cheat, not buy any, fuck bailing them out.

The 20mm house in my avatar goes uninsured cause the billionaire won’t pay 250k a yr for insurance.

That’s right! It’s a dog eat dog world. We don’t need anybody else. Humans evolved to live in an isolated world, meet up occasionally to procreate, and then bail. Kick the kids out of the cave as soon and they are mobile. Kill or be killed.

Neufox, what I meant is that CA legislature has debated about no longer participating in the entire NFIP and creating their own program. I’ll dig up the old articles that I’m aware of. The program involves more than just policy coverage. BTW, I believe a lot of insurable structures in the ArcStorm scenario are outside the FEMA floodplain and likely do not have flood insurance.

Crazy warm and windy today in San Diego.
\Looks like fire near La Jolla just started.
One near border is getting big fast. Sure hope the rain actually happens on Saturday.
https://images-resized.watchduty.org...8-fetched.jpeg

note sure if link will work, but interesting webcam of last 30 min includes retardant drop
https://app.watchduty.org/camera/2232/fullscreen

Not sure what impact this might have just posting as an FYI: The House passed the “Fix Our Forests” Act. It’s a bipartisan bill introduced by House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Bruce Westerman (R-AR) and Rep. Scott Peters (D-CA). The bill is meant to reduce the intensity of wildfires and help protect communities from fires in high-risk areas

https://scottpeters.house.gov/press-...0-87ED24BB9A56

Haven't had time to read up on it yet but Outdoor Alliance email said the bill has issues, mainly it hand ties NEPA and reduces public input, as well and lets projects go ahead without considering endangered species. Maybe this isn't so bad since environmental groups especially in SoCal are very sue happy every time a project gets approved.


In other news, the Border fire in south SD has blown up to over 4000 acres.

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People are so fucked. Trump is too fucking stupid to even be a dogcatcher, and here we are.