saw cracking at the resort this past weekend as well on that same aspect
huge cracking too i might add.
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saw cracking at the resort this past weekend as well on that same aspect
huge cracking too i might add.
from the CAIC forecast...
Weather Synopsis
We will see increasing clouds and strengthening winds today. They are coming in ahead of a low pressure trough that rapidly passes overnight. Conditions are favorable for snow--good dynamics, jet support--except for a lack of significant moisture in the air. A few flakes may fall in the afternoon, but the majority of the snow will fall overnight. Dusk to midnight brings the most intense snow to the Steamboat Zone, while the most intense snow in the Front Range, Vail Summit, and Aspen Zones will be midnight to dawn. Vail Pass, Gore, Park, and Flattop Ranges will do the best. The San Juans and Sangres miss out on snow, and only get strong ridgetop winds. With the snow comes wind. A jet core with speeds over 180 mph will move over northern Colorado. Ridgetop winds will be slower as the winds mix down, but expect gusts of 70 mph over the Divide and gusts over 50 mph elsewhere.
The storm clears quickly on Wednesday. Another quick disturbance brushes the Northern Mountains on Friday. This weekend looks interesting. The models have a closed low off Baja joining a trough. That throws a bunch of moisture into Colorado on strong southwesterly flow. Keep your fingers crossed.
I like this part.....
New snow from the incoming system will favor the Vail Pass area. This is a fast moving system, so expect it to be breezy. New snow and wind are like oil and water. Westerly winds over the past several days have been strong enough to transport snow onto north through east aspects creating isolated pockets of tender slabs above treeline. For the most part, these are the areas one would look for to ride. If you choose to ride, be prepared to test the snow stability on the slope in question before jumping in with a full commitment.
Folks will have to be very careful on lee slopes. Forecast is calling for a 200kt jet core to be over the state tonight (telemike, that is the similarity between Nov. 1985). Its been 22 years since such a strong jet core has sagged over the state. Anyways, accumulations look to be in the 3-6 in. range with ample blowing snow. There is a whole lot of dynamics and orographics, but not a whole lot of moisture or duration with this sytem. My guess is that highlights should be issued with the afternoon package.
Looks like another, shallow wave for Thursday, with possibly a larger, moister system for this weekend (see the dramatic change in the five-day QPF fields above). Not surprising, the models have had a hard time building a consensus on the details.
This weekend does look like it "could" be promising. However, I am trying to not get my hopes up. Rontele, you still see a warm, dry period the first couple weeks of Dec.?
That is one ferocious jet....wow.
The jet is really, really, really impressive. Not sure about after Monday. Looks like a upper ridge will build back into the State. The long-range forecasts yesterday seemed to indicate, however, it would be pretty progressive. But given the fickle weather patterns this fall, I am not about to buy into anything quite yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
That is not very useful information unless you answer these questions.Quote:
Originally Posted by pechelman
When?
Where?
What aspect?
How big of cracking?
How was the crack triggered?
^^^^
When? Saturday, could have been there before then though
Where? Keystone, visible from under the gonjola, prolly around 11k
What aspect? North to North east
How big of cracking? Anywhere from 10 to accross entire runs ~100ft
How was the crack triggered? I saw cracks propogating from things as large as sleds to as small as animal tracks that looked like foxes. The animal tracks leds to a small local slab failure where it fell into the old snow and shot out cracks ~10-15ft.
I had a hard time looking at all of them, because our cab had frosted over windows and was full of people, but suffice to say they were large enough for me to see.
The cracking however was fairly localized to a specific elevation.
My guess would be between 10,500 and 11,000ft.
hope that helps
Pechelman,Quote:
Originally Posted by pechelman
All of that is VERY interesting.
But, the really interesting part is that the cracking was isolated to that elevation. Without getting to look at the snowpack up close it would be hard to say why the cracking was happening there. It could be a melt freeze crust, wind slab or even a fog/drizzle crust. Obviously, the colder temps made the surface a lot more brittle, thus the cracking. Very interesting that they ran soo long...:eek:
Thanks for the additional info. More info is always better....:wink::D
Question for the weather geeks:
On the NOAA site, in the forecast discussion, they often talk about zone #x or zone #y. Is there a map that shows which zone is which, because I've never been able to find it.
yea i really wanted to go poke around, and i didnt want my pass to get yanked, and i wasnt able to spot and stop a troller to talk to. If its still around this weekend Ill try again to talk to some of them, and hopefully get to dig around with them.
my knee wasnt really up to it either this weekend since i had bruised it a few days previous.
my guess, just looking at the terrain, as it was under a general rollover, that the cracking was a result of a windcrust, at least partially. as always there are so many factors that are involved. (ie just the terrain feature and possible windloading given prevailing winds)
I dont want to speculate beyond what I observed, but your temperature mention and brittle snow is accurate as well.
from the gonjola, id estimate the broken through potion of wind crust, where that animal fell into, was about 2-3" thick, or 50-75mm for you metric folk :p.
The same aspect and slopes so far this season have seen lots of surface hoar growth off to the east side of the trees where there has been some protection from wind, but just enough room for the surface to radiate off.
thats really all i got without digging around.
the thing that really caught my eye the most was the cracking that started from an animal.
Psychedelic Colorado:Quote:
Originally Posted by goldenboy
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/awebphp/zonemap.php
Good stuff!Quote:
Originally Posted by 3DB
That is scary.....:eek: Such a light weight trigger could cause such a long crack really does scare me.....:eek::eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by pechelman
Loveland Pass today 11/27. Skied north facing 12,400 to below treeline. Where there are deep drifts (yeah - not that many places) the older snow pack is pretty firm and not showing much tension or weakness. Where it is and has been thinner its been rotted with some, although not super advanced, hoar.
On top of this where its been loaded and not blown off there is a tender slab of 6-18" that is prone to cracking and sliding if steep enough. I believe this is on the old crust alone, but could be some surface hoar.
Overall I think if we get substantial snow and winds the danger will shoot up as both the interface between old and new and where they'll be new drifts on thin rotted stuff may very well spell avy. Add on top of that that the pack is painfully thin, variability is high, and that the new snow will just cover rocks, stumps, ice and you have a recipe for caution.
looks like this one fell apart too. Less than an inch at my place, not snowing currentlly. SIGH
at 6:40AM....probably 2 inches at the house now. It is NOT windy where I am, however it is Never windy at my house. Was really hoping for at least 4 inches out of this one, however I will definately take what I can get. Fingers crossed for Saturday, but last night that didn't look good either. What say you Rontele?
and Rontele......Friday looks like reallly high snow levels for this time of year. 9k or higher, do you see that as well? Is it reallly going to rain on Friday?
4-6 inches at Vail Pass and still snowing. I would say it is pretty good.Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
The storm for Friday/Saturday is starting to phase together for the biggest event we have had thus far for this winter. Too bad, I am have a 40 mile mountain bike ride planned. Snow level looks to be at 8k.
Thanks, exactly what I was looking for!!Quote:
Originally Posted by 3DB
its never too late to go ski some powQuote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
edit
I stand correct as this comes straight from the CAIC
Quote:
The models still advertise a weekend storm. Plan a mountain bike ride or BBQ for the weekend, wash your car, do anything to encourage it to snow.
The GFS, NAM are coming into agreement that snow should begin late in the afternoon/into the evening on Friday across western, and particularily southwestern Colorado. The past couple of GFS runs keep snow in the mountains through early on Monday. Looks like appreciable snowfall for most mountain areas this weekend.
Thereafter, ridging behind the system may persist into the following weekend. Massive storms are forecast to slam into the Pacific Northwest (ski folks delight up there!), but most of the energy and moisture is carried into Canada.
Loveland Pass is still pretty gusty this morning, so wind loading looks to be an issue on the easterly aspects in that area, but looking at other areas (Vail, Berthoud, and McClure Passes) it looks like the winds subsided before the snow began and wind loading of new snow may not be as substantial. Anyone in these areas able to confirm?
Avalanche Observer, are you not seeing a storm for next Wednesday? HPC seems to advertise one with the 12z GFS run.
There is a little vort max I see that may be rolling across WY (see below - 12z GFS valid 12/06 at 00z) into SD/NE, but the energy and moisture from that little system may be too far to the north to be beneficial snow-wise. Perhaps some flurries in the northern mountains...the way it looks right now.
Just my opinion, though :)
Thanks! Lets hope we get some good snows out of this weekend's storm cause it is looking like a return to high pressure through the middle of the month (the 12th) and above normal temperatures.
weather jong here
what do those numbers mean on the graph?
they some sort of equipotential lines for pressure\flows or something?
distance?
can anyone reccomend a good current book?
im not adverse to text books\formulas\math etc so long as they arent too spendy.
or is better just reading noaa and such?
this storm did pan out a bit better than when I first woke up this morning at 4. About 3 or 4 inches at my house. Did Breck really get 9?
Agree with Rontele that hopefully this weekend pans out due to the high pressure following afterwards. Tonight on Vail Pass my car said -3 degrees at 6pm, so surface hoar may develop a bit. As far as the winds, it was not windy this morning at 8 when I was thru there or tonight at 6 on my way home.
The numbers on the chart that I uploaded are labels for the isopleths (lines of equal height). The lines indicate what elevation (above sea level) the pressure is equal to 500 millibars. Lower heights tend to indicate cold systems and low pressure at the surface, where high heights tend to indicate warm systems and high pressure at the surface. The winds generally flow parallel to the isopleths at high elevations. Here are a couple of books to check out for basic weather forecasting and weather map information:
http://www.weathergraphics.com/redbook
http://www.weathergraphics.com/mapbook
http://www.weathergraphics.com/fcstbook
The only one that I have read is the Weather Forecasting Handbook and it is VERY well written and keeps the math minimal - and optional. The author is very well versed in weather forecasting techniques and is credible. The books won't break the bank, either.
CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger for the Vail/Summit county areas. Looks like the wind loading has contributed to slab formation on most aspects at or above treeline in that area. Careful out there!
I, too, hope this weekend lends to some good snowfall so that I can get out poking around in the snow again!! :)
looks like a hopefully brief rain event on Friday night here in Vail before the snow starts. Is anyone else seeing that? How long should that last? Last year we had the same type of thing in MT, and that ice crust layer wreaked havoc on the pack the rest of the year.
Unlikely except at the lowest elevations.Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
Weekend storm still on track. Looks like the snow will begin sometime close to noon on Friday in the southwestern mountains and spread northeast throughout the day on Friday. Most mountain areas will see snow, but the southwest mountains look to do the best.
Avalanche danger will undoubtedly rise this weekend in the northern and southern San Juans as well as the Gunnison area mountains, and possibly parts of the Sawatch and Grand Mesa area mountains.
A.O.- last night it looked like a foot plus for the Vail, Copper, Breck stretch. Is that still looking possible or will the big dumpage be over the Sthrn mtns? Right now the nws are looking like a 6" or so for Vail?
pechelman is going to get a beughner from all of this techy shit. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Avalanche_Observer
Storm looks to be on track for tomorrow, spreading snow from south to north. Initially snow levels will be high (8500 feet), but should be lower as the day moves along. This is certainly going to favor the San Juans, W. Elks, etc., but the QPF fields still do show tremendous amounts of moisture and places such as Vail and Buff Passes do quite well in strong, moist SW flow overruning events. Aiding this is suface cyclogenesis developing over Western Colorado Friday night, that should kick up the flow a bit more helping out the more central and northern mountains. Once the subtropical wave moves east, the polar jet will kick a shortwave that will help develop snows over the NW mountains. The big loser will be the NoCentral Mountain and the Front Range, which don't do great out of a SW flow, but I bet advisory amounts are met by Saturday afternoon. Afterwards, looks like a ridge builds in for Monday and Tuesday, retrograding on Wednesday opening the door for some weaker systems from the NW--nothing tremendous at this point.
You prognosticators are so techy-geeky with all the maps, terminology, computer algorithms, and yet wrong so often still.:nonono2::nonono2::nonono2::nonono2:
dont blame the messenger!Quote:
Originally Posted by smitchell333
Since this is actually more the Colo weather thread than the snowpack thread, I'd like to know if anyone actually has any feel for predicting or observing the weather using their senses instead of having to use a computer or some other electronic gadget.
I mean, lets say you're out for 5 days at a hut. Do you have any observations that might predict a system coming in within a day or two? I remember a time in the spring when I 4WD'd way up some road to the west of Holy cross. Hit the snowline and parked. Skinned way up from there and camped. It snowed at least 18" overnite. The skiin was tits but the drive/bobsleding down that wicked road when my friends refused to ride along was a hair raising experience to say the least.
What kind of things do you use? What do you see. What does it mean to you. Are they as/more acurate than the weatherman?
This is kind of like people who can only nav with a GPS and have no idea how to use a map. What happens when the batteries die?
-----
So, here on the east X southern end of the Sawatch, hudge southerly (SW) winds (at least up in hurricane flats NW of Poncha - not so bad in Salida). More from the south than usual <note change of direction & intensity>, so I'd predict something from S Cal/ AZ, which will favor southern regions from here, as compared to the systems thatcome from PNW that favor stuff to the N of here. Black clouds above and beyond the divide to the west but clear overhead in the valley <upsloping on the western slope>. To the SE are the lenticular downwind from the N'ern Sangres - but they are way further downwind (like twice as far) as normal <high winds at altitude - maybe a good jetstream overhead>. Temps are not too bad - I think I'll see them rise - <I always notice a warm before the storm>. If old injuries from 20+ years ago and a few joints start to ache that tells me the <pressure is dropping>. Typically, southern storms track south of here, and once they pass by the upslope (especially in spring) can favor this and of the valley. I'll look for cloud formations pressed up against the E side of the Sawatch later in the cycle. But just a wall of clouds hanging near the divide is what I expect this time of year. That's the stuff that builds the winter pack up high here - similar to the wall of storm that hangs around Loveland so often. Things can be soo different in amounts just a couple miles apart (downwind and elevation).
I mentioned earlier about rings around the moon (or sun). Those usually tell me something will move thru in about two or three days. I like to think the bigger the rings, the bigger the storm.
What else???
My knee and shoulder hurt before storms. They hurt today, so that means something good. I also like to look at clouds, their types, and the directions they are coming from. That usually gives an indication of incoming weather, wind direction, etc.
I agree that this thread has digressed to weather, but weather is the first point in any avalanche analysis. I'll have some more pertinent obvs after going out on Saturday.
and its digressed to weather, because thats all we've had to talk about up until recently.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
ditto on the clouds
completely not what you're after FZ, but on multi day trips, I generally leave a small pocket barometer back at camp\hut and look at the trends.
Tom,Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankZappa
A lot of time the only thing you can use while on exstended backcountry trips is what type of clouds you're getting and how fast they move through. The rings around the moon are also useful. I tend to also think that the bigger the ring the bigger the storm too. But, I don't have an evidence to prove it. :confused: I'll try and find this cool cloud website, that you'll find useful.
Cheers,
Halsted
you people don't carry a weather radio?
:rolleyes: :D
As an old friend of Tom and I likes to say, "Yes, you too can carry 75 pounds of ultra-light weight mountaineering equipment." :tongue:Quote:
Originally Posted by lemon boy
Besides, those things (and yes, I do own one and have tried it out) don't work in a lot of remote spots.:p