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Just so theres some record of this stuff here.
River flows or the past southerly storm cycle in the San Juans.
and some weather station readings reflecting the still "warm" temps at 3 sites. Red Mtn pass - Eagle, McClure pass between Delta & Carbondale, and Wolf Creek.
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Note the weather sta readings show only the last 24 hours or so which have been a few degrees cooler than the previous days.
Sat- Mixed rain/sun all day in N. Park mild temps even up high still (iskibc- parkviews not really holding as of Sat)
came back from SLV yesterday - pissing rain up to ~10K higher obscured, changed to snain across S. Park so I'd expect a fair amount of snow up high. I did get to see a quite spectacular moonrise over the sagres Sat night.
Did you run into the evil and worthless twin Saguache down in the Valley?
Poncha Springs area this AM: 40° f at 7am. Light rain all night. Ceiling at 9k at first light dropping to below 8k by 7:30.
Using the rule of thumb that one could expect a 4° f temp drop per 1,000 ft elevation gain, and it being 40° at my 8,000 ele, I predicted the snow level to be at around 10k near the Monarch dist.
With continued moisture and another cold front expected w/n the next few days, we could start a decent build again, and maybe it'll stick around this time.
More for the record. - It's sticking to the pavement on the south end of the state. But Vail pass still looks clear. Temps look good on Red Mtn but boarder line at WC.
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uuuuuhhhh....huh?Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankZappa
but I did go through saguache and camped right near there.
Refer to post #80 for therory of Sasquatch and his evil and worthless twin Saguache.Quote:
Originally Posted by lemon boy
Bird huntin'?
duhhhhhh sorry. I sorta skimmed that part. I would say that I did have a "close encounter" with one as when I pulled into my "campsite*" I smelled a very odd rotten meat & sage smell** (I imagine this is what Scott Gaffney's house smells like right now....BURN!).
Yes, duckin all weekend, it pissed rain all Sun morning on us, chest waders are superior rainpants.
*place I parked the truck for a few hours
**true, not overpowering enough to make my want to move though
Around noon, snow was not sticking to the road at monarch, maybe 3 or 4 inches tops on the grass at the pass level. Snowline looks to be more like 11k in CB. There has to be a lot of snow above treeline after the last week of warm moisture (cue another sweet montezuma TR now....)
There's a lot going on out there. I hope it'll keep up. Just need the temps to drop a lil' more to turn the rain to snow, which they finally are doing (snow down to 7k here this am), keep getting consistant storms (in the form of flakes, please) and in a couple weeks we might be on our way to a good season.
First for the "very" high country, refer to TR: Fourteeners and Faceshots 10.9.06 update from iskibc, Funkendrenchman, Figure Eleven, Dside 11. I think these guys were up around north central CO.
This sounds really good to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by iskibc
Any thoughts on this "consolidation" factor? - warm moist system and it's bonding properties...?
Then near timberline (10k-11k) in central CO: listening to my pager for a cattle truck off the side near the summit of Monarch at 9pm last nite and the associated radio traffic talk of blizzard conditions, 50 yard visablity, along with semi trucks not being able to set thier brakes (the rigs just slipped away w/ the wheels locked under the weight of the vehicle).
I think lots of the previous snow at and below T-line had been melted away (around here at least). So for the most part it's starting over on the build. And the ground surely is colder now than it was after having that snow from the other week on it and then some rain.
An E-mail from a friend in Silverton over the weekend stating that Mineral creek above town was jumping it's banks on Sat. His thoughts on that area:
Quote:
Originally Posted by a friend in Silverton
and the lower country report from storm11 Late Season STOKE! - UPDATE W/ PICS about HUGE river flows. - larger than spring runoff.
Quote:
Originally Posted by storm11
... and Monarch is still holding in mid afternoon:) Even though it's been sunny down here in town since AM.
------------------------------
Monarch Pass
Air Temp: 28°F, 0°C
Air Pressure: 65535
Dew Point: 27F
Relative Humidity: 96%
Wind Speed: 11 mph, 10.0 knots
Wind Direction: N or 20.0°
Wind Gust Speed: 16 mph, 14.0 knots
Wind Gust Direction: N or 358.0°
Precipitate: 1
Precipitate Type:
Precipitate Intensity:
Precipitate Accumulation:
Visibility:
Reading taken at Tue Oct 10 13:40:00 MDT 2006
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1160514075
The 4' base I was talking about is mostly the terrain above 12.5K in the Montezuma basin area. Pearl Pass looked to be holding around 1' or so of snow. The north couloir off Castle had a good 3.5-4' base. Conundrum was deeper, but definitely wind effected. Both situations the pack was looking good. No distinct weak layers were present, except for maybe the wind slab that was beginning to form on the upper parts of Castle Peak and Conundrum. It appears that snow has been slowly accumulating up in that area on a fairly consistent basis, which is good. No signs of dh or tg upon inspection.Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankZappa
Right now there are a wide range of conditions in Colorado. There are a wide range in base depths as well. For instance, most of the Castle Creek area had about a foot of snow on the ground above 11K. Driving home and checking out the Mosquitos and Tenmile, it was very patchy, with some peaks holding no snow whatsoever, and the nextdoor neighbor peak holding a good foot or so. Lot's of peaks and starting zones from Leadville to Frisco have a light dusting (depth hoar written all over it) that looked to have been from a few days ago. Very spotty too. I think this goes to show how spatial variability and trigger points will play a role down the line. Lot's of landmines forming out there right now.
Dave,
Was the 4' base all new snow or was there some snow left from last year in the basin and chutes?
Finding and getting to the spots with enough snow to ski is a key challenge right now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by smitchell333
Conundrum was holding some old snow from last year near the top of the chute. Down lower it was all new snow. Castle was all new snow. A good 3' or so in the chute and on the apron. 'Zuma obviously has old snow underneath, but I was able to dig down a good 90-100 cm through the new snow before reaching the old hardened snow. Elevation obviously is key, as once we got down 750' or so, there was only about 12"-15" of snow on the ground.
Nicely played - when I saw FigureEleven's report last week I figured that was the spot to be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by smitchell333
Yeah, worth the drive for sure. However, after this last storm I doubt you will be able to drive up past treeline any longer. It was sketchy enough yesterday to get up to one of the last switchbacks. Will be a fairly long haul from below treeline.
On another note, I'm really amazed at how new snow bonds so well to old 'glacial' snow. I always thought glacial snow would be a great bed surface for something to run on. It must have something to do with it's surface area and the texture of the old snow.
Do you tink it had anything to do with possibly pre-rain on the old changing to snow?Quote:
Originally Posted by iskibc
or maybe just heavy wet snow on it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankZappa
Possibly. I also think that when new snow falls on old 'glacial' snow there's some quick melting>freezing>melting>freezing sort of cycle going on which bonds the two surfaces together quite well. I don't know, just speculating.
It kind of makes sense to me if the two were wet/damp, say in the afternoon, and the temps droped there might be some freezing together/fusion type thing as the new snow would go from wet to drier - before it got too deep to insulate the mating surface.
I'm speculating too, in case you haven't noticed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankZappa
Of course assuming that the old stuff is basically ice or close to it we can expect TG to be created at that old snow/new snow interface and resulting hoar development as long as the snowpack above is shallow enough.
maybe I'm just old and senile, but I can't remember such a difference in snowpack levels based on altitude. Right now, there is basically no snow here at 9500', some friends of mine went to Baldy 3 days ago and found only a foot at the 12,800' level (and Baldy tends to get a lot of snow), while at 14,000' on Castle there is 3-4'. Baldy is only about 10 airmiles or so from Castle. We would have had so much snow in the last week and a half, but most of that moisture was rain, except at the highest altitudes.
Sure signs of the TG/Depth Hoar from the sound of it. Where it isnt deep (less than 20" maybe??) and/or ski pressured I would imagine much of what's up there is substantially faceted. Going to be interesting...
Quote:
Originally Posted by iskibc
How is this recent storm going to affect the stability of the Front Range Snow Pack this year??? Is it going to be trouble??
For discussion sake, what in particular would make you think this recent storm is going to be trouble? (Think about the factors that enhance/degrade stability.) And for a reference point, I know you're new here, but you have said you've done your avy I certification, right? Or am I confusing you with someone else?Quote:
Originally Posted by gretch6364
^^^ Well my name isn't gretch but what the hell. And keep in mind I am talking generally here as I haven't had a chance to ski in the Front Range this year yet. The most recent storm brought a lot of loading in a short period of time(think Iski's 30in in 24 hours). This kind of loading is always going be potentially hazardous as snowpacks generally like incremental loading so they have time to adjust to the new snow. This may be one reason the CAIC is reporting slides over the weekend in the tenmile range and one north of Berthoud. The other contributing factor is the wind that brought in these storms which causes everyones favorite, windloading. So in the short term the new snow could be potentially hazardous as it is a big stress to the snowpack. As the snowpack stabilizes and adjusts to the new load the added depth is usually a good thing. The hazards from the windloading may persist for longer though.
JJJJS-
pretty sure he's asking about the longer term issues associated with so much early season snow. And like SPT, I'm betting that he already has a pet theory based on his question.
Yeah I wasn't sure whether he was thinking long or short term. so whats the pet theory SPT?
that's what we're trying to draw it out of gretch ;) socratic method and all dat shit.
These warm temps are helping out a bit as far as consolidation v. faceting. However, it's fucking freezing at night. I'm sure there's a point where it could go either way...what is that point?
One of the main concerns with what we've got is over time it will rot at the bottom due to Temperature gradient/faceting unless we get enough to negate the effect.
For example lets say on average there is probably about 20" on the ground. Thats about 50 cm. Strong temperature gradient and the resulting significant vapor transport that leads to faceting is defined as 1 deg C/10cm. So if its colder than -5C (23F) at any time there is significant faceting in the snowpack where the depth is 20"(50CM).
At Berthoud last night it looks like the low was 17.7F (-8C) - so the effect is significantly underway. On a tour yesterday to about 12.5K' I found a significantly inverted pack at/abobe treeline - with wind slab starting to form on the top and light snow in the middle and beginnings of facets at the bottom. Got some mild whummphing already
Good skiing for Oct though - pow esp below treeline.
Pray for more snow b/c if we can get to 50-60" then the effect is greatly reduced as the temps dont consistently get low enough.
I do not have any theories in mind. If I did I would have shared to stimulate conversation. I going to the free avy training tonight actually, so I am new to this whole thing. I want to take a CPR class ASAP as well and of course have all the needed equipment. I want to know as much as possible before I risk my own life or anyone else skiing with me. I have also met a couple veterns as well as some maggots that have much experience to show me around.
I really was looking for answers on the snow pack and had heard about some issues with it getting warmer and the snow not melting..maybe becoming sugary???
Just looking for more knowledge...thanks
hacksaw puts on a great show even if he does say so himself sometimes :D
I think you'll find the basic answers to your question in this thread especially closer to the start (or smitchell's post just above). The biggest thing IMM (and discussed previously in depth) is everything turning to sugar if we don't build up a decent base. The sugar snow creation would be if it stays cold + shallow, not if it warms up (the discussion early on about warming was in the hopes of just melting off the first snows so they're a non-factor).
And I dunno if anyone noticed but Wed-Thursday is supposed to be holy windy (and snowy).
Quote:
Originally Posted by gretch6364
i don't think the snow melting off is even an option now. you guys are going to have to make due with what you've got, as are we. best hope would be for stromy weather over a perior of a few weeks that just drops 3-12" right side up a storm. once the pack gets about 4 feet deep the faceting at the bottom of the pack begins to retard and you start looking at your next midpack layers. lots of heavy snow in a short period or windloading may reactivate those deeper layers.
***although colorado deals with more full depth releases than utah does.
all - good thoughts
gretch - I think these others have put out some good responses to your q.
Mostly repeating what's been said, but in short, I think a big storm like what we got, long term, is good. As a generalization a deeper pack is a more stable pack...longer term, for reasons smitchell and APD get at. JJJS's assessment of short term issues is spot on...fast/deep loading is NOT good for immediate stability.
Warm temps also generally help to stabilize the pack...as long as the warmup isn't too severe/fast. This is most evident in the spring time, where the pack goes to isothermal and the layers cohese into one. (also the time when we get the most wet-loose slides and point releases). But, still watch those warmer temps...they can also create a freeze crust, which can be a great bed surface for the next layer.
Kudos for going to the presentation tonight, and for wanting to get the CPR class...good attitude of safety for self and for your partners. Definitely suggest going for the full-blown avy level 1...Hacksaw just can't cover in one night what they do in 2 nights of classroom and a full day in the field. (I realize some tentative FOBP avy field days are in the works...I wouldn't let that stop me from doing the level 1 class). Some other suggestions: pick up some good avy books and read some more. Read the accident reports on the CAIC website from years past...definitely lessons to be learned. Once the CAIC starts issuing daily forecasts, read them everyday. Get out there and practice with your beacon, and practice with pits and tests...all the reading/classroom education is an essential...but you've got to put it to practice.
And, this isn't coming from the guru...these are all good reminders for me as well...always something to learn, always skills to improve.
chance of snow,
For the Montezuma Ski Area:
today 90% chance 5-9":yourock:
tonight 90% chance 8-12":yourock: :yourock:
tommorow 80% chance 3-5":yourock:
No.....way.......I.....can....ditch work................thursday...............ARRRRRR RRRGHHHHHHHH!!!
Well...Breck is reporting 24 inches of fresh snow at mid mountain...and my parents are in town from the Burgh for the weekend...what great timing!!!
Oh well...hopefully we get the right weather to make it stable...it is pretty dangerous right now...ten slides last week......everyone be careful these next couple days...I foresee trouble :nonono2:
Choose terrain choice wisely and use proper travel techniques. Backcountry can be done at any time, you just need to watch/know where you are and what you are doing at all times, and really be evaluating your risk assessment.
Sometimes (most times actually) you just can't turn 'em (or climb) on certain hills. Taking a detour/ change of plans always needs to be an option.
10 slides is nothing...that was from 1 forecaster within a portion of one range. Once the CAIC is up and running fully, you'll see days with hundreds of slides reported...Quote:
Originally Posted by gretch6364
That being said...yes, we've had some significant loading (lots of snow, and fairly high water content) in the past 24 hours, so danger is elevated...
I have not seen this snow personally, but word has it that it is rather wet and heavy even at higher elevations. Is this good or bad for the snow pack...just curious??
I am not even sure what is safer...heavy or light snow?? I would think the heavier snow would make for a stronger base...but I am just guessing
I am also talking long term not short term...as in after another week or so will it be safer...and then even longer term...will it be better for a base in like December and January??
I would think heavy snow would consolidate faster and create better coverage over rocks and what not as it should pack tightly...thanks again....
lastly...I am sure this may have been mentioned already...but does anyone have any suggested reading related to avy's that I could pick up in a denver book store??
It's a constantly changing thing. Lots of things effect it, and in different ways, some good, some not... wind, temps, sun (or none), more snow, less snow, rain,...Quote:
Originally Posted by gretch6364
For reading, my local library has lots of these or will bring them in. Here's Silverton Avy school's suggested reading.
"Snow Sense" is the most-accessible read.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gretch6364
Hopefully all this is true. I was out yesterday and can say it was heavy - made for higher danger as it rested on a shallow and mostly rotten snowpack. But I think once it settles down it should make a decent base as it will keep more of its depth than lighter snow.
Cold temps at night will still tend to rot out shallower areas, but the effect will be reduced anywhere the pack is deeper.
One more of these and we'll really be talking.