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I had a similar experience with a near new $6500 bike. They didn't even want it though I know they could sell it as I got 4100 out of it with little effort. "Check back in 2-3 months and we can likely give you $1800-2200..."Quote:
Originally Posted by smmokan
The manufacturer is really caught between a rock and a hard place.Quote:
Originally Posted by smmokan
1. You want to report a strong outlook because that's what the people above you want to see. There is a collective benefit from the product line managers, to the sales team, to finance; all the way up. No one wants to be the one to go against the grain. I've raised my hand and asked the question and was shot down immediately.
2. Factories were / are running at limited capacity, which means they are only going to take the biggest orders because they do not have time to waste for the smaller orders. So, you may have accurately forecasted 5,000 units for product, but you have to place an order for 20k units or it won't get made. This thinking is justified by #1 of the above.
3. Retailers are begging for product, but they're begging for it now. It might not seem like much, but a factory gets their bulk materials 2 weeks late, ships a month late, and there are delays on the water. Suddenly the product shows up to the retailer 2 months late and they don't want it anymore. If the manufacturer hit the original date they'd be in the black, but now that order is refused and they're in the red as it sits in their warehouse just waiting for close out.
Being outside of the manufacturer, in this instance, allows you to look at the big picture with less bias. Strip that away and everything seems pretty obvious.
If you had some cash, 2008-2009 was an amazing time to buy second hand stuff. I suspect we're going to see something pretty similar after this upcoming season.Quote:
Originally Posted by XtrPickels
And mindful that with the pandemic and all these bullwhip effects hitting supply chains (bike shops not getting their orders in in time, so order 2X next time, that multiplying up the supply chain as you get to the factory), undoubtedly some companies overbuilt supply chains to meet what ultimately will have proven to be a temporary bump in demand. And it takes a big capital investment to increase supply correspondingly.Quote:
Originally Posted by schuss
I imagine there was a ton of pressure/fervor to invest and increase capacity, since it was unclear how long the pandemic would last, if the outdoor boom was permanent, etc. And yeah, not a popular position to be the guy in the c suite saying the fun times aren't going to last and to let all this excess demand go unmet in the name of caution
Data point, since this is now about the bike market in general:
From what I'm seeing, lower end used bikes (under $2700 new, under $1200 used) still sell for more than they did pre-Covid, though they're way down from their peak. It's the dentist bikes that people paid $4500+ for new that are getting crushed. The stimmy checks have long since run out, and the consequent inflation is biting deep into everyone's disposable income. People still want to ride bikes -- even more so now that travel is so expensive -- but they don't have dentist budgets anymore.
As with the 08-11 recession, sellers are in denial and still asking Covid prices for a lot of gear. That stuff isn't moving, because new bikes are getting discounted again. For instance, there are a couple online sellers blowing out complete Ripmo AFs for $3K (their pre-Covid price, not counting the 30% of real inflation that's occurred since then), and they're moving a lot of them at that price...but people are still trying to sell used ones for more. Meanwhile, local shops are still asking full retail for 2021 and 2022 bikes, and I can already tell that they're going to have a LOT of unsold inventory that will crush the order volume for next year, since bike-selling season up here is over.
It'll take a while for used sellers to give up and lower their prices...but eventually they will, and we'll see a lot of dentist bikes for short money. That'll only happen after the shops lower their prices, though, because shops have to sell product or they have to close, whereas people can just leave their bike sitting in their garage.
My prediction: massive new bike discounts next fall/winter, including a lot of "manufacturer direct" sales that piss off retail shops, and used prices finally falling along with it.
This is already happening with some of the bike companies that have hybrid models, selling DTC but also in "select" shops and online retailers. And yeah, it's definitely pissing off their retail partners since it essentially eliminates any/all margin on their inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spats
New for 2023 Norco Fluid A2 original MSRP was $3999 when announced in the summer, can now order direct on their website for $3149. Still found dealers listing them at the original higher price on their websites and Pinkbike.Quote:
Originally Posted by smmokan
Could part of this be that the USD is much stronger than the CAD compared to a year or even 6 months ago?Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
Maybe, but I think it would be a small part. Canadian dollar is down about 6% from summer, and this is a 22% price cut.Quote:
Originally Posted by XtrPickels
FWIW, when I was working/purchasing for a shop 20 years ago in Canada, the pricing on US companies bikes didn’t really fluctuate in time with the exchange rate. If Canadian dollar was weak, generally bikes were better value in Canada, if strong Canadian dollar, worse value.
But that was 20 years ago, and going in the opposite direction, and different companies, so not sure how meaningful it is.
FWIW, I've been doing some looking and LBS's have been offering 10-20% off on 2022 stock.
Edit to add: Browsing through the Pro's Closet listings I'm seeing much better pricing locally on new bikes.
Pro's Closet has to pay for their Boulder employees to live in the very expensive and posh bubble. They do have good connections for bikes from reps that are hardly used.
My wallet is one Stumpy Evo lighter because of it....Quote:
Originally Posted by smmokan
It's interesting to see that they have a bunch of brand new bikes from RM, Orbea, etc. I wonder if those are shops ditching inventory they can't sell? I can't imagine those bikes are coming straight from the manufacturers.Quote:
Originally Posted by panchosdad
I managed to get myself a new hardtail xc bike recently but I'm still a little pissed that TPC has/had an orbea alma in the size/spec/color I wanted despite our rep apparently being unable to get me one for like two years, not even a frame. I'm curious how they got all those.
Didn't they move to Louisville?Quote:
Originally Posted by simple
Louisville is more or less part of the bubble these days, I’d wager. Most of the Boulder IBD refugees probably still live there
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Yeah, Louisville is only slightly cheaper than Boulder, still crazy expensive compared to most other places.
They wanted to give my buddy only 3000 for his XTR build 2022 Pivot Firebird. Funny stuff but yeah, the market is saturated.
If its a medium tell your buddy I'll give him $3,100 for it :biggrin:Quote:
Originally Posted by bamboocoreONLY
Got a blanket 10% off offer from them today.
For signing up for their mailing list, for buying stuff from them before, or ???Quote:
Originally Posted by panchosdad
I've noticed that at least some of the new bikes they're selling have the disclaimer "No Manufacturer's Warranty" on them, despite being new and from major brands. So those bikes are clearly gray-market.
Serious question, what's gray market for a bike? One they bought from a dealer at a discount and they're now re-selling "as new"? I'm used to that term in the camera world, where gray market means a camera that was imported from another country and the warranty doesn't apply within the US.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spats
So……… can’t fully comment on the bikes, but recently in SkiWorldz I have a lot of clients coming in & bartering new product & I myself have purchased a ton of skis that are 1-3 seasons old for nickels on the dollar for my clients.Quote:
Originally Posted by smmokan
Im hearing that shops don’t have staff to push product & if a consumer can’t find it on their phone as 2023, it won’t move.
This spring I did have a guy swap me a bike frame for some coaching & guess where it went….TPC; so despite having a warranty card- my thinking is no way.
Grey market generally means sold by a vendor, usually unauthorized... without the blessing of the manufacturer. It could be stolen, produced at the factory after the company's contract was fulfilled without their knowledge, or just plain sold by a distributor to vendors/retailers that the manufacturer didn't authorize..
Slightly different question. Bought a new Stumpjumper frame that was a warranty replacement. Serial number has never been registered, still original packing material. Can I register it and have a warranty?
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All the warranty registrations I've ever done have required a receipt to go with an unregistered serial number.Quote:
Originally Posted by detrusor
I was on their email list already, just sent me that offer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spats
Worth trying to register. What are they going to do, take away your warranty if it doesn’t work?Quote:
Originally Posted by detrusor
15% of the Pros Closet got laid off including my riding partner. Think their prices will go down?
Not looking good in the bike industry right now..,
Hate to see it.
That's a huge bummer. Their future seems questionable to the casual observer. Also seems like the casual observer could have seen this coming. Presumably MBAs abound in their upper management, business professionals whose job it is to predict this kind of thing. Not sure why they let themselves get so over extended when even Joe Dirts on a ski forum saw it coming. As mentioned above, greed I guess.
I lucked out selling my Firebird to a friend of a friend for $5K right before the bust. Pro's Closet was my backup plan but the timing would have been tight.
Why is it a bummer? I used to buy and sell from them regularly like 8-10 years ago when they were on ebay but the last couple years they have made the used bike market worse for both buyers and sellers.
I meant about people losing their jobs. I'm pretty agnostic about the business model and company itself. Sucks for people to lose their livelihoods though.
Seems like they'll have to drop prices a lot now, further depressing the market for sellers which is fine. Cheaper bikes for everyone is good overall. Lots of people are gonna be left holding the bag when looking to flip their $10K bikes but hey, if you can afford that bike in the first place you're doing alright. Bike shops might feel some pain too but market fluctuations are a fact of life.
Just saw a TPC ad on IG: 30% off Enve wheels, 40% off Ibis wheels, and 50% off all other wheels.
That’s rather aggressive.
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Unfortunately they’re almost all 27.5, which explains the sale.
Surprising amount of new stuff in there. Can't figure out their angle.
Though I do see a bright future for anyone looking for 29er rear and 27.5 front wheels!
Their angle is that The Pro’s Closet is moving into retail brick and mortar. Think Carmax but for bikes.Quote:
Originally Posted by jm2e
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Pretty crappy company. They have purchased friends used bikes and marketed them as new, or shop floor demos, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirkwood
General consumers are also drinking the “certified pre-owned” kool-aid for peace of mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by Westcoaster
I do know that TPC will fully service forks and shocks before selling a used bike as well as replacing worn parts is needed.
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Living close by, I’ve dropped off 2 bikes and 2 wheel sets in person. They do a thorough look-over of everything when you drop it off, looking for issues to repair / replace.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirkwood
The guy even mentioned some stuff I ought to take off because they’d end up replacing them with new items (e.g. seatpost, saddle, grips in good but not perfect shape, etc).