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I've never been able to collect pogey/ UIC/ whatever the phuck its now called cuz I was always too respansible/ playing the long gameQuote:
Originally Posted by BCMtnHound
I didnt qualify for CERB or any of the pademic handouts either , i finaly got the last kickstarter or wtf it was called and used the $$$ to buy GF a Fat bike
The hoity-toity’s go to Wendy’s or MacDonald’s.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dantheman
The high school kids go to quizno’s.
The park tourists go to Dairy Queen.
I go to the Coach.
real earners don’t work for money, see the stock market or bitcoin threads
we made work worthless a while back
Just had a supplier tell me they have been put on allocation for rolled steel. This is a very big commercial parts mfg. for the class 8 truck and trailer industry. Fricking nuts. Surcharges for this. Surcharges for that. Surcharges left and right. Yes, you will see it in the price you are paying for whatever you are buying these days. I guess invest in DOGE...Don't sit on those dollars they are becoming worth less and less.
The meh jobs report is just what the doctor ordered if you're trying to pass a $1T+ infrastructure plan.
^^^ Fucking Biden is a wily bastage.
Several red states are ending supplemental unemployment insurance so I guess we'll see if employment in those states goes up compared to the rest of the country.
Safe to say the lockdowns and habits changing, the bullshit bailouts that went to the wrong people (especially the first one), the global supply chain, etc has had a monumental effect on the economy. It’s not over yet either. It’s like blowing the damn at the end of Force 10 from Navarone, it takes time.
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I think it likely will, because in most of those states businesses are fully reopened and need workers. In states that remain in some level of shutdown, benefits will likely continue to be needed by people who can't go back to work even if they want to.Quote:
Originally Posted by old goat
But time will tell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl_Mega
Sounds like wishful thinking.
half of the population will gladly not work for even 60% of the same pay.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/09/inves...ead/index.html
^you could count me in that 50% of the population who'd sit on their ass for 60% of their salary. but.... I live way under my $ needs and more importantly unemployment ends and not having health ins or having to pay out of pocket is expensive for the near term... then you gotta start over. So the efforts to restart, the gamble plus loss of $ for these low-earners sounds like a shit-deal. To be straight tho, warehouse workers and hourly wage earners are not really my circle - so maybe these are more like interchangeable, gig type work vs. a steady job.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deebased
we need so few people to work at our current efficiencies, anything else is reaching for control. every job i’ve had in the last 10 years has had global reach and i’m far from worldly or skilled
the owning class is too greedy these days, not enough bread in this circus when nearly every RE market and natural resource is being capitalized by the top 5-10%
i’m all for burning it down, i don’t see why we give a fuck if we see corporations fail, that’s best case for this country in the long run as efficiencies were never returned through corporate scale and won’t be
i watch my mom make $15/hour in a city where you cannot exist on that wage. fuck any other classist math in this thread
Maybe in Seatown, right now we are short as hell on workers in Bozeman, too bad people cannot find a place to live to be able to work here.
If we get that efficient, sure, UBI for all that want it, but no credit to go further into debt they can never pay off.
Thomas Piketty, the academic French economist who wrote Capital in the 21st Century (an update of Das Kapital if you will) says that unless something is done about wealth and income disparities there will be revolution and I think he's right. Jan 6 was a misdirected opening shot. All it would take is someone with Trump's demagoguery skills and who wasn't a bumbling idiot. Bring back the guillotine.Quote:
Originally Posted by shroom
It was like that in Truckee before the pandemic and I'm sure every expensive place in the country without affordable neighborhoods (ie slums) within a commute.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
are you speaking to luxury needs or something else? what problems are we trying to solve? i live in spokane and grew up thereQuote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
man, sure sounds like that extended unemployment is screwing over Bozeman and Jackson/sQuote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
warehousing is like construction labor a young mans job. Shitty, hard on the body.
Going OT but, if there ever comes a time when there isn't sufficient demand for labor then support will have to come from somewhere, otherwise its torches and pitchforks and revolution.
If its just people who would prefer to stay home and play video games and get stoned, sorry. You can have a subsistence stipend to eat and keep a roof over your head but society will not be buying you a new Gameboy and if you want one, pay cash.
Nope, nothing to do with it here, we are at pre-pandemic employment rates and still can't fill all the slots. If you are a skilled carpenter or equipment operator you can bargain hard.Quote:
man, sure sounds like that extended unemployment is screwing over Bozeman and Jackson/s
Well yeah, only so much a body is capable of, better have a plan to use your brain at some point. And most jobs suck or have tradeoffs.Quote:
warehousing is like construction labor a young mans job. Shitty, hard on the body.
Our Governor just ended Federal UIC benefits. See what happens next.
Capitalists might be scheming how they could establish man camps, pay top dollar and bring in outside labor.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
Montana max UI = $487/week + 300 federal is still under $20 an hour. Without is $12 an hour.
Obviously UI can’t possibly be suppressing people taking on well paying construction jobs in a town where you can’t even find a place to live.
Hmmm. Yeah No.Quote:
Originally Posted by old_newguy
Shrooms mom works for $15.
And she could make more on unemployment.
Ain’t that america. Something to see.
I’m talking about Bozeman.Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
The fucked up thing is people being paid $15/hr and other people thinking they are making out like fat cats.
The summer of discontent.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news...id=mailsignout
How does a homeless person get a stimulus check?
$12/hr = $3/hr with child care, transportation and a red Bull. $20 net is quite an incentive.
I was working at HD Lumber @ $14/hr when the new CEO switched policy from a living starting wage to minimum wage for new hires. One afternoon the store manager comes over and tells me that the new kid won't be coming in for his 4 hour part time shift. I'll be solo. I say "You know, you can hire people for $7/hr but you can't make those people come to work for it. Do the math. $28 minus $4 for taxes, $8 for gas and $5 for the candy machine. He trades 7 hours of his day with his girl friend for $11."
Same place he gets his SS check I'd guess. Then uses it to eat, feed his kids or buy a bottle. The inflation in the article seemed supply and demand issues cause by the way the pandemic screwed over the whole capitalist consumer world. Rather than too much spending money in circulation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
Yep, if you are going to work 40 hrs a week you should be able to afford to live off that job.Quote:
Originally Posted by old_newguy
It’s not just a class war, it’s a technology war. Computers have put more people out of work than anything else. Kept wages down. But productivity has risen.
It will only get worse, skills, or no skills.
Some arguement for Yangs basic income in the future, or we’re going to be living in some kind of sci fi world with that haves living in artificial worlds and the have nots living on the dumpster that is left of this planet.
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what the fuck happened to the lumber in that pic?Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
it’s like going to war
what are you convincing the stupid people they are dying for? the median is dumb but not blind
there is no gold in the bozeman hills at $15-20/hr; you’re trying to get people to build their own ticket out of town with a smile
i managed specialty warehouse labor in the 35 most dense markets in the us/uk not long ago and there is nothing but turnover in the inflationary markets we’ve created. most those unfortunate kids paid for a degree too. fucked then fucked
all that’s left is to gamble on assets as the yo-yo goes up and down. there’s no work involved there
oooof Shroom, that was a depressing read. Life has never been easy is the fact of the matter. People are not here to help each other out for the most part. If you have found your way into a good career, count your blessings as there is another person that is fucked. Ya, and it never gets any easier. O and inflation? Look at lumber and the Pizza thread. $45 for a large veggie? Fuck me.
As long as some folks are willing to pay 45 bucks for a pizza, there will be 45 dollar Pizzas.
Re-title that thread, how much are you willing to pay for a Pizza and see the results.:fmicon:
^ Heh, research shows people form inflation expectations from their own personal grocery (or pizza) bundles, and do not include items they don't purchase:
We show that consumers rely on the prices changes of goods in their personal grocery bundles when forming expectations about aggregate inflation. Our analysis uses novel representative micro data that uniquely match individual expectations, detailed information about consumption bundles, and item-level prices. The data also reveal that the weights consumers assign to price changes depend on the frequency of purchase, rather than expenditure share, and that positive price changes loom larger than similar-sized negative price changes. Prices of goods offered in the same store but not purchased (any more) do not affect inflation expectations, nor do other dimensions such as the volatility of price changes.
The same appears to be true even for members of the Fed Open Market Committee with their own personal forecasts:
We present novel evidence showing that personal lifetime experiences significantly affect the inflation forecasts, voting behavior, tone of speeches, and federal funds target rate decisions of FOMC members. Our findings suggest that heterogeneous inflation experiences generate heterogeneity in the desired policies and the macroeconomic outlook of FOMC members. Personal experiences exert this influence even though FOMC members are highly educated individuals and receive extensive decision-support from professional staff.
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~ulrike/Papers/paper_DMOW.pdf
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~ulrike/Papers/FOMC_48.pdf
Both steel and lumber temporarily shut down in March 2020 due to the 'rona and what they thought would be a depression moving forward. Dont mind that both industries were demmed essential.Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
A year later they underestimated supply, and now the consumer gets boned. I dont get it.
No idea, but those lumber mills need to crank it up. But when you are getting 300% more for lumber than 1 year ago, why rush?Quote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
People react as human nature would predict. Who could have guessed?
Forecasting future demand for allocating future production funding is already hard, harder still during a pandemic. To most people “inflation” just means “the retail price of food or gasoline” so today we have this ransonware pipeline thing which will do more to form opinions than boring macroeconomics.Quote:
Originally Posted by Asspen
If you need new tires because you have a job and don't WFH, you might want to buy those tires sooner rather than later.
https://www.moderntiredealer.com/art...s-tire-dealers
Quote:
With 67 stores in Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas and Kentucky, Plaza Tire Service Inc. is watching tire prices go up on both domestic and imported tires. President Mark Rhodes says prices on imports have risen 5% to 10% since the start of the year, while domestic-produced tire prices have gone up, or are in the process of going up this spring, by 6% to 8%.
Plaza Tire is passing along those increases to its retail customers, as well as its wholesale customers.
Stacked on top of that, Rhodes says, are freight surcharges on imports.
“Some of them doubled or tripled,” says Rhodes, noting he’s billed for surcharges ranging from $1,500 to $2,500 for a container load of tires since the beginning of the year. And even with those extra fees, shipments are taking longer to arrive due to backups in ports and heightened demand for containers.
Last year, containers arrived within 90 or 100 days, he says. In 2021, shipments are pushed out to 150 or 180 days. He expects those problems to linger.
Aww dammit. I DO need new tires but can't afford them yet until I pony up for my water pump repairs. Tires were freaking expensive enough as it was. FML. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
https://www.reuters.com/business/ark...source=twitter
Fears of inflation have weighed heavily on growth stocks since the start of the year and helped bolster value stocks, which tend to benefit from rising commodities and higher interest rates. The Russell 1000 Value index is up 16.3% for the year, while the Russell 1000 Growth is up 3.9% over the same time.
"The scramble is more today than what we've seen in any other cycle," Wood said, predicting that "we will have a very serious correction in commodity prices" once the global economy fully reopens.
Deflation, rather than inflation, will likely be the dominant theme in global markets in the years ahead due to technological innovation, Wood said. Yields for the benchmark 10-year Treasury will likely stay within a range between 1.5% and 3%, she said, while oil prices are unlikely to go above $70 per barrel.
Inflation, deflation--someone is bound to be right and claim they're a genius.
CPI data comes out tomorrow. Something to keep in mind is prices fell a lot last spring due to the pandemic. So in spite of whatever price increases show up in the data, the previous levels were roughly the same as they were for summer 2019.
In that sense the growth rate doesn't tell us much because we're still below trend. That doesn't mean inflation won't get out of hand in the future. But for now the overall price level remains below what it would have been had the pandemic not happened.
Annnd its ugly.
Like Jimmy Carter ugly.
MoM inflation at .8 or .9%
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/cons...pril-2021.html