GB is exactly right...Rome isn't full of mopeds and smart cars because they are "environmentally friendly" - they are full of them because if too damn expensive to drive anything else.
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GB is exactly right...Rome isn't full of mopeds and smart cars because they are "environmentally friendly" - they are full of them because if too damn expensive to drive anything else.
In this most important of threads I would just like to point out that going out and buying a second "efficient" vehicle of almost any kind represents false economies for two main reasons:
1) the payback on the fuel savings probably not as good as you think.
2) a second vehicle binds up assets (both personal and collective) that could be better used elsewhere.
True, drilling may take a while but if you don't start it will take longer won't it :). And yes, there are thousands of oil and gas wells around the world that have very little impact on the environment.
Besides, the world wants it's oil and they are going to drill for it. Wouldn't it be better for the USA to do the drilling so that we can have the control over how safely it gets done?
The free market will dictate when it makes economic sense for alternative fuels to take over.
(Read "FREE TO CHOOSE" by ALTA regular Milton Freedman <R.I.P.> You'll be sold on the free market system again)
You also have the problem of unintended consequences with alternates. Look at ethanol and it's roll in food inflation for example. Put simplistically,People are literally starving around the world because we are burning food in our cars.
$109 to fill the van yesterday
ONE HUNDRED AND NINE DOLLA FILLUP!!
Where the fuck are the fuel efficient vans in this country.
They killed the Chevy Astro in 2005 - that was a good idea there Mr AutoExecutiveDouchebag.
Dodge/Mercedes Sprinter would be great, but they dont make enough for supply and wont offer any good financing deals for those overpriced units.
i've got my sight set on this 80mpg monster (CBR125R), but i'm gonna need you guys to keep driving big 5.6L trucks down in the US so we can extend our riding season to more than 6 months up here.
http://www.bikez.com/pictures/honda/...0-%20Honda.jpg
Yeah, I'll agree with that, except maybe for people with huge commutes. I guess I'm just looking at it as a sign of the market, and what the market will continue to do with high gas prices.Quote:
Originally Posted by lemon boy
Hey, he has almost the same name than a famous nobel prize winner !Quote:
Originally Posted by TROLL-HOLE-E-O
So tired of the "drill the US" and "build refineries" BS.
The US has 3% of world oil reserves and uses 25% of world oil production. US oil production peaked 20 years ago. Drilling the last few drops out of the exhaused US reservoirs will make no difference at all to world oil prices, literally ANWR is a drop in the bucket.
Oil companies are not building refineries because they know that global oil production is peaking, so that a multi-billion refinery with a 30 year life is a bad investment. Blaming lack of refinery construction on enviros is SO stupid. If there was money to be made, refineries would be built in Mexico, where enviros have no voice, and the gas would be piped to the US. The fact that this has not occurred shows that the business conditions are preventing refinery construction, not enviros. Anybody who thinks Mexico has environmental protections has not been there.
The bottom line is that markets work, and supply and demand will balance at some price, depending on the short and long term oil market elasticity. Which means that oil prices will increase to whatever level is required to force US consumers to conserve, whether that is $5/gallon or $20/gallon. 5% of world population will not continue consuming 25% of world oil production, although I suspect that we will bankrupt ourselves both individually and as a society before we accept reality.
i think it is funny that every single one of the worlds issues right now comes down to one factor....and that one factor nobody ever wants to talk about, especially here in the US.
OVERPOPULATION!!!!
So kill yourself and start the trend! :FIREdevilQuote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
We have an oil man in the White House, a country that is spread out like a cheap hooker and love cars. Until the EPA and greenies allow more refineries we’re fucked.
shit, u ever see how much they pay for a LITER of gas sumplaces in europe. don't complain. our gas is still cheaper then most the world. but i would really like to see a hydrogen/electric movement. as long as it gets me to the ski hill i dont care what it runs on.
There is more oil on the western slope of CO than in the middle eastQuote:
Originally Posted by tommyvee
Why is it multi-billion :rolleyes2Quote:
multi-billion refinery with a 30 year life is a bad investment. Blaming lack of refinery construction on enviros is SO stupid.
We have enough oil to not worry about the world market, we just can't play with it.Quote:
The bottom line is that markets work, and supply and demand will balance at some price, depending on the short and long term oil market elasticity. Which means that oil prices will increase to whatever level is required to force US consumers to conserve, whether that is $5/gallon or $20/gallon. 5% of world population will not continue consuming 25% of world oil production, although I suspect that we will bankrupt ourselves both individually and as a society before we accept reality.
At the moment oil prices as a % of individual income are still lower than at their peaks in the 70's. This means that there is still plenty of room for them to go up.
As previously mentioned high prices are annoying, but not a bad thing as they will increase the pressure on people to make use of more energy efficient solutions.
I sure have seen a lot more bike riders out there these days.
In a nut shell:
#1) Major growth in China and India + continued growth in Europe and America.
#2) Finite supply of recoverable oil = expensive to retrieve & find
#3) U.S. fiscal policy = spend and borrow + low interest rates = more dollars + inflation = deflation of U.S. dollar and increased prices.
#4) U.S. congress that nary batted an eye when the likes of ARCO, BP, Concoco, Philips Petroleum, Exxon, Mobile, Shell, Texaco, Chevron et al came a knockin' and wanted to merge. It's better for the consumer they told 'em.
#5) Environmental restrictions on new U.S. refineries + cost of new refineries + see #2 above.
#6) No comprehensive and coherent energy policy since the OPEC embargo of 1973.
#7) Lazy, ignorant Americans who have an entitlement mentality.
I know I've probably missed a few things, so please feel free to add to the list.
Back in 03' when I bought my Ram 2500 cummins Diesel was a good $1.00 cheaper than gas. I knew that spending the extra 6K for the diesel was a smart idea.
doht! Just filled up - cost $140.00 I only work 8 miles from home so it is tough to justify buying a new vehicle. There are no bio diesel stations around here either.
Thought about a motorcycle but the 8k in cost is a lot of gas.
What you running in your diesel these days lemonboy?
The bright side to oil prices is that skiing is not inherently oil-consuming.
Anybody who has skiied in the Alps knows that the train/telepherique/skin/refuge system will let you access awesome terrain with almost no direct oil usage.
If gas prices are this high next winter, I predict that the I-70 resorts in CO will be running bus systems from the Front Range. Personally, I welcome a few less whining snowmobiles, a few less pickups/SUVs clogging the roads, a few more bicycles, and little less smog. all of which high gas prices will bring. Your mileage may differ.
Dont worry though - food is also going to get more expensive, especially with the push for ethanol production driving up corn prices. Maybe this will reduce fuel prices, but your taxes will be making up the difference as they go into subsidies for ethanol production.
Ummm, Big Oil has a profit margin of 8%. Most all other companies see that number up at 20-30%.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoNads
Well of course it depends on circumstances. We have big ( 1 ton diesel Dodge) and small (Toyota Matrix standard). As a couple we need two vehicles but 90% of time we don't. I bike to work or take transit. She needs car for work and gets paid for mileage. Try to use Matrix for most use but if two vehicles are needed then the truck is used. Or if need to haul a trailer then of course the truck is used. ( trailers in the dougw stable, 2 horse, 4 horse, utility 14,000lb, and travel )Quote:
Originally Posted by lemon boy
Yeah, you'll notice that I carefully crafted the statement so as not to be absolute because there certainly are situations where it can be made to pay.Quote:
Originally Posted by goldenboy
I would also submit that a great deal of the question is clouded by "want" as opposed to true "need." And while that's perfectly fine, I think it does need to be recognized by people and especially here most of those need/wants are really about recreation. It's recreation suck it up.
thats true. the reason oil companies pull such hudge profits isnt so much price gouging as it is the fact the EVERYONE in the world uses oil in one way or another...Quote:
Originally Posted by 2FUNKY
But driving less pays big dividends. Whenever we talk about conservation here in North America, it always seems to be in reference to mpg. Living closer to work, carpooling, eliminating unnecessary trips, riding public transit, cycling, walking, etc. have a better bang/buck ratio.Quote:
Originally Posted by lemon boy
Living close to one's GF has a much better "bang to buck ratio", I've come to learn.Quote:
Originally Posted by pisteoff
Quote:
Originally Posted by alias
Gas. I bought a jeep liberty cuz the pickup was at the end of its useful life (to me, not in the absolute sense) and I couldn't justify another given my life circumstances and the economics of the whole thing.
I did take into account efficiency when buying the thing but recognize that some of my major "requirements" are much more about recreational want than true need so one of the big factors for me was efficiency within the context of my "requirements"
Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
There are no fuel efficient vans because nobody wanted one until the last 15 minutes, and if gas prices go down, nobody'll want want again - you want to be the GM of GM and start making cars nobody wants but are forced to buy - smart long term outlook, no doubt.
Yes, Mr. Autoexecdouchbag killed the Astro - no doubt because he couldn't make enough of them to satisfy demand:rolleyes: - Here's the economics short course - if nobody wants something and doesn't buy it, there's no point in making it (also consider the opposite)
Where's the demand for those girly wagons that are so popular in Eurp? Naw, gotta have a big SUV/truck to haul all that precious crap.
You don't need a 8k$ bike to ride 8 miles...Quote:
Originally Posted by alias
As evidenced in this thread, energy prices in the US are starting to change some personal behavior, but not nearly enough fast enough as far as I'm concerned. Mostly we're just at the increased bitching but no action stage.
I'd like to see the entire federal income tax eliminated and the revenue stream replaced by taxation of fossil fuel energy, same with state sales taxes, property taxes, etc. Then we'd see some real progress on energy efficiency, renewable energy, and global warming mitigation. Capitalism will do amazing things if the playing field and rules of the game are right.
:rolleyes2:rolleyes2 here's your sign :rolleyes2:rolleyes2Quote:
Originally Posted by ericrayl
A simplified view:
Minimum wage has almost doubled in the past 10 years (in CA, more than doubled). Average income across the nation has nearly doubled in the past 10 years. Why are people complaining that the cost of everything else is doubling over the same time span? Nothing is changing.
And to our Euro friends, when comparing the prices of your fuel to ours, please consider that all of your road taxes and auto insurance are covered in that price per litre, whereas in the US, they are not. It is not an apples to apples comparison.
edit: ignore the last paragraph please.
Bingo... I manage to do my ~8 mile commute with my "trusted" DBS (Den Besta Cyckel... Norwedgian for The Best Bicycle... kind of ironic, actually is htey are mostly utter shite), which I bought for a whopping 15 or 20 €, like 5 years ago...Quote:
Originally Posted by philippeR
well when demand in north america and the western world increases steadily, global oil production growth slows because its harder and harder to find new sources of oil, and when 2.5 billion people in india and china want to join the industrial world.. you have a problem. our gasoline is ridiculously cheap at $1.35 a litre, name one other liquid on earth that you buy for $1.35 a litre? nevermind the incredible amount of energy contained in a litre of gasoline. get ready for gasoline prices twice as high, and then remember how everything in our world revolves around petroleum, everything from the fertilizer/pesticides used in our food production or the plastics we find in everything, etc.. to the trucks, planes, and ships that transport everything we consume from all over the world. this is just the beginning, life is about to get a lot more expensive. air canada and westjet just increased all tickets across the board $60 and $120 for fuel costs. second checked bags are now $25. american airlines first checked bags are $15. thats just one tiny little slice of the pie.. also you live in whistler, there's no reason why you can't ride a bike 90% of the time in the spring/summer/fall and only take out your truck when necessary (leaving town, hauling stuff, crap weather, etc..). i haven't owned a car in three years!Quote:
Originally Posted by GoNads
edit: i didn't notice this thread was five pages long, everything i said has been covered :)
:nonono2:Quote:
Originally Posted by philippeR
No, but I WANT one.
http://www.automotoconso.com/leblog/...r-696-2008.jpg
And LB, say it aint so! Where do you take your naps? How are you going to stay on diesel forums? HOW WILL YOU TELL ME ABOUT BIODIESEL!!!!!!!!:nonono2:
Ummn, NO.Quote:
Originally Posted by DJSapp
Many countries have Road Tax (eg. CH, AT) and almost all countries have road tax for lorries, busses and such. And yes, we do pay for insurance, and not a dime from gas goes towards it... Heck, cars have to have an insurance in Yurp, and to top that it is also superviced (and you'l get a hefty fine, if your mandatory car insurance isn't valid).
So, apples to apples.
It's big enough to sleep in the back easily and my 200s fit diagonally easily as well :) So I just keep a sleeping pad in the back and still get mah naps in.
The dieselers don't care if I got rid of it anyway ;)
As for Bio- it's a crock but you already knew that :D
Way to parrot Obamas recent speech you fuckin' kook.Quote:
Originally Posted by tommyvee
We're a sovereign nation, not to be compared to other countries.....fuck 'em.
That's the reason prices are so high you morons.
China and India. Whether you dipshits want to believe it or not, your decadent lifestyle is usually carried on the backs of others. The more you tools cater to the "well being" of people in other countries, you'll end up paying for it.
So while China and India keep using more and more crude, the simple economics of supply and demand will keep the price going up. And to all of you Euro douches, we have states bigger than your country. We need to drive over here.
At least there are a few people here who understand what is going on.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2FUNKY
Unfortunately and fortunately I get info straight from the horses mouth.
My dad worked for Mobil his whole carreer. A colleague is an exec at Exxon Mobil.
A few comments from the exec the other day with just a hint of sarcasim:
Who caused all this rise in crude oil & gasoline prices? Those mean ole' obscene oil companies, that's who! Yep, they all met in secret and agreed to set the price at $126.00/ barrel to deliberately raise the prices on the open market and then sell only to China and India so to starve the US of cheap oil and gasoline and make everybody in the US mad as hell! They also deliberately refused to build anymore refineries for over 10 years ago so as to develop more demand on produced gasoline and make US people suffer, cause higher diesel prices for truckers, higher jet fuel prices for airlines so the oil companies can make so much more money --- a whole 8 cents profit on every dollar earned. Although the banking industry makes about 18 cents on every dollar earned, the oil companies decided that searching literally all over the world (i.e., Nigeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, North Sea, Bearin Sea, Shakiland island in Russia, etc.) was better than going into the banking business. Yea, they have been so pleased to look all over the world rather than explore for cheap oil in our own backyard where known oil & gas reserves exist (i.e., Off the East & West Coasts, offshore Florida, massive reserves in Alaska, our Nalt. Parks, etc.) Yep, that's exactly what they have done to us, those obscene profit hungry bastards. Gee, maybe Wal-Mart will give some of their profits to the government or oil companies so they can reduce the prices at the gas pump for us citizens. Maybe Canada, Mexico, Saudia Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Indonesia, Iran, Venezuela, etc. will reduce their crude oil prices so we will be able to produce gasoline at a cheaper price, or maybe the oil companies will go in the "RED" and produce gasoline at a lower cost than what it takes to refine and transport the gasoline to the service stations. That way, the oil companies can eventually eliminate their profits, stop anymore exploration for oil and eventually go bankrupt. Sure, that will do it! Then we can buy direct from foreign oil companies and I'm sure they'll sell their gasoline and a lower cost, because they are our friends. Yea, that's the solution! Now we got it!
Another comment from inside the business:
We (America) need to recognize the problems we have put ourselves in by not allowing drilling of our own oil reserves and not allowing the building of refineries. The last numbers I heard is that it costs $2-4 Billion to build a refinery...and the time to completion (with all the environmental permitting) is about 10 years. Also, an offshore oil well in deep waters used to be in the $1-2 Billion range...who knows where it is now. Oil companies just won't invest like that in America until we (the people) finally change our minds and invite them back.
We have done ourselves in during my lifetime. Our kids and grandchildren will not have a chance of experiencing the wonders that many of us have had during our generation. Many of them will likely spend their years "stuck" close to home...will little chance of traveling and living in different parts of the USA and even less chance of seening different parts of the world. It will be like going back a 100 years or so.
Quite frankly, I don't even know if it can be turned around...and it really never had to be that way.
My apologies then, and I have to look up an old college professor who ass I need to kick.Quote:
Originally Posted by hemas
An interesting article on the future of travel:
Say Goodbye to Cheap Air Travel
By Chris Nelder | Thursday, May 15th, 2008
Several years ago, when I began to realize the implications of peak oil, I wondered: Will I ever get to see Asia? Or Africa?
I had no doubt that the air travel business was in for a world of hurt, once oil prices started going up fast. And when that happened, air travel to such far-flung destinations would be out of reach for regular folks like me.
I just didn't think that day would come quite so soon. I can already see my window of opportunity to lay on the beaches of Thailand, or hike the rugged mountains of Tibet or Japan, closing.
In the last 90 days, jet fuel prices have spiked 38%, rising along with crude.
It was no surprise to me, then, to see some of the smaller carriers starting to go belly up this year. As oil has hit record high after record high, fuel costs have actually exceeded labor costs for many airlines, accounting for as much as 40% of operating expenses.
They just couldn't price their tickets high enough to keep the business aloft. Of the 769 million travelers who boarded U.S. flights last year, we might think a sizeable percentage are on discretionary trips.
(Likewise, fuel prices are hurting the trucking industry and causing truckers to strike. For some, diesel costs have spiked about 90% in the last six months alone, far outpacing the cost increase of gasoline. Who wants to operate at a loss?)
The budget carriers, already surviving on razor-thin margins, have seen their profits simply evaporate.
So far, eight airlines have officially bitten the dust:
Aloha Airlines
ATA Airlines
Champion Air
EOS Airlines
MAXjet Airways
Oasis Hong Kong Airlines
Skybus Airlines
Skyway Airlines
One of them-ATA Airlines-even left some soldiers from Vermont stranded in Iraq, unable to get home as the company went bankrupt.
Frontier Airlines is now bankrupt, too...and they won't be the last to go, either.
The bigger carriers with deeper pockets (and more unsold seats) have kept prices relatively low while burning through cash reserves as their own fuel costs mounted. American Airlines is now losing about $3.3 million a day, and at the current rate, could burn through its $5 billion in cash reserves in as little as four years. And it has the biggest cash reserve in the industry.
When you're bleeding like that, skimping on maintenance, taking safety risks like flying with inadequate fuel reserves, and nickel-and-diming your passengers will only buy you a little time.
Consequently, the bigger carriers are looking to mergers in an attempt to save their skins.
Northwest Airlines and Delta Air Lines have proposed a merger, which is now under review. The Northwest CEO recently said that the merged entity will likely be smaller than the sum of the parts, due to soaring fuel costs.
If the merger receives the approval the Justice Department and Congress, it's likely to spark a wave of additional mergers. UAL, the parent company of United Airlines, is already in talks with both Continental Airlines and US Airways, and I anticipate more to come.
Other carriers are turning to debt, to ride out what they hope is a limited era of unprecedented fuel costs.
The last of Britain's business-class only airlines, Silverjet, just borrowed $25 million from an unknown Middle Eastern investor (reputed to be an Abu Dhabi investment fund) to get it through the rest of the year...with a promise that it could borrow another $75 million in the future.
Tricky Trading
The U.S. airline sector as a whole posted an $11 billion loss in the first quarter of this year. "When all the results are in, this will be one of the worst quarters for the industry in its history," said John Heimlich, chief economist for the Air Transport Association.
Every major carrier except Southwest Airlines recorded a loss. Southwest posted a $34 million profit.
How did Southwest do it? By hedging 70% of their fuel costs. The next most hedged was Northwest, at 45%, and all the rest were under 24%. Their hedging strategy is simple: They buy fuel futures when the market is soft. Southwest is now benefitting from having the foresight to start hedging a full decade ago.
To capitalize on my own foresight, I have wanted to short the airlines so badly for several years running. But I never did, for three reasons.
One, there is always the possibility of yet another airline industry bailout by the feds, which is a deadly risk if you're short.
Two, it's a business with a long growth pattern. Airbus and Boeing are still sitting on a long book of backorders and projecting that they will double the fleet size over the next several decades. Historically, shorting the airlines has been a good way to get your head handed to you.
And three, I couldn't find any good ways to play the short side of the air industry in general. There are no airline ETFs, and for good reason. It's mostly a money losing business, with extremely slow growth rates and enormous risk and capital requirements.
There is, however, a way to profit from the airline industry collapse, which we'll get to in a moment.
One additional factor is weighing against the airline industry, and that's climate change. Air travel is estimated to account for somewhere between 4-9% of all emissions, and people are beginning to think twice about hopping a flight when perhaps a teleconference would do. Increasing public sensitivity to the climate change issue will add pressure to the industry's burden.
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A Slow Boat To China
The equation is clear: skyrocketing oil prices, thanks to peak oil, are the death knell of cheap air travel. From here on out, as oil continues to rise, those cramped seats will get harder to find, and more expensive.
In time, air travel will once again be only for the rich. I expect it will end much as it began, with limited high quality service for a select clientele. Consider this: A seat on the first commercial air flight, a 23 minute hop from St. Petersburg to Tampa, Florida in 1914, cost more than $3600 in today's money.
For us regular folks, this could be our last chance to see the world on the cheap, without devoting weeks or months to the traveling part.
According to Delta CEO Richard Anderson, ticket prices would have to rise 15-20% just to cover increased fuel costs. "You can't underestimate the spike in fuel prices and how it is fundamentally changing the industry," he said.
But like most many aspects of peak oil, there may be a silver lining here. Life will slow down from its current frenetic pace, and that's not such a bad thing.
Maybe I'd enjoy a long journey by boat to Asia. Like the song from 1945 says:
I'd like to get you
On a slow boat to China,
All to myself alone.
To get you and keep you in my arms evermore,
Leave all your lovers
Weeping on the faraway shore.
Out on the briny
With the moon big and shinny,
Melting your heart of stone.
Darling, I'd love to get you
On a slow boat to China,
All to myself alone.
Some things take time. It's not easy to melt a lady's heart on a mere five-hour flight.
So in some ways, I'm not going to miss cheap air travel that much. Yes it's convenient when you have to cross the country, but the whole experience has become so painful. Between the lost luggage, the cancelled flights, the discomfort, and being treated like a presumed criminal, I look at economy air travel as a last resort.
I actually opted to drive 15 hours home for Christmas for the last two years, rather than endure the 12-36 hour random experience of trying to fly at that time of year, with bad weather and cancelled flights and a crush of travelers. On a cost basis, I figure I at least broke even. But I enjoyed the trip far more, feeling like Jack Kerouac with the windows down and the stereo blasting big band music as I blew across hours of open desert on the old Route 66.
I know that some day, when fuel becomes too expensive and hard to get, I'm going to miss that experience.
But by that time, I hope to have an even better alternative: a rail ticket.
Rail: The Longest Safe Bet You Can Make
If you've ever had the pleasure of riding a modern high-speed railroad in Europe, you know why I say that.
Taking the TGV, the electric-powered French long-distance railroad, across the country from Paris to Provence was without a doubt the most enjoyable travel I have ever experienced. I boarded the train shortly before departure time without any security checks, and kept all my bags with me the entire way. I luxuriated in a huge leather reclining seat while being quietly whisked at 200 mph across the picturesque countryside. Regular service walked up and down the aisles, asking if I'd like anything to eat or drink. Or I could get up and stretch my legs and walk down to the café car if I wanted something-like a decent sandwich on a nice baguette, not some nasty air "snack." Door to door, it was a little cheaper than an air ticket, and took less time because trains go from city center to city center, not to some godforsaken outpost 20miles outside of town.
Compared to the cattle car experience of discount air travel, it's bliss.
Comfort aside though, rail is bound to gain market share in the coming decades as the airline industry contracts. This is because rail is by far the cheapest and most fuel-efficient form of transport, requiring about a third less fuel than air for personal travel, and as little as 3% of the energy for freight.
Rail can also run on renewably generated electricity, making it a true transportation alternative for the future.
Now, I realize that the only long-distance passenger carrier in the country, Amtrak, is terminally broken and underfunded and suffering from decades of neglect. But as the rail resurgence in freight travel picks up speed, I have no doubt that passenger rail will follow.
Simon Fraser University professor Anthony Perl, author of the new book Transport Revolutions, predicts that in 2025, no more than 25 airports will be functional. Electric powered transportation and rail will be the standard transport options.
Very simply, in a post-peak oil world, rail is a no-brainer. It's probably the longest safe bet one could possibly make.
That would explain why the sector has attracted large investments from some of the wealthiest investors in the country over the last several years.
Bill Gates has become the largest investor in Canadian National Railway (NYSE: CNI). Warren Buffett and George Soros have taken large positions in both Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC). And Carl Icahn has taken a $122 million stake in CSX Corporation (NYSE: CSX).