Attachment 321375
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And now I get an email saying the mayor tested positive for the CoronasQuote:
Originally Posted by wkd-rdr
Man Pours Purell On Hands After Using Gas Station Glory Hole Because, "You Know, Coronavirus". Future Headlines by Lee Camp
Has the stockpiling made you run out of tinfoil for your hats?Quote:
Originally Posted by BGnight
Sent from my SM-A505W using Tapatalk
[QUOTE=SirVicSmasher;5933150]hes caple of texting as of last night and plans on mo fishingwithsfbQuote:
Originally Posted by splat
its one of those never sucks things were still attempting to do
were still running the warehouse im workin 4-noon with another person to help limit space out employees cs and office staff at home
all our stores are by appointment
bike side of warehouse and retail sales good as schools out and no team sports
and people were spending money last week
70 yo guys still showing up trying to consign old ski gear:confused:
aint my job to tell em to stay home and limit exposure and potential exposure to it
It's entirely Darwinian. I've got mixed feeling about a glib reply when nobody knows how fast the number of deaths is going to go up. But,Quote:
Originally Posted by rideit
In the growth phase of an epidemic, immunity spreads exponentially too.
Viruses have been called biological nanoparticles. With a short window of opportunity to infect new susceptible hosts, while their current host has a high viral load, and before their current host's immune system wipes them out, or they kill the host.
We supply part of the replication mechanism, and material/food supply, and are the predators.
People who recover increase the percentage of the population who are immune.
When 50% of the population becomes immune, the effective reproduction number becomes half of the basic reproduction number, R0. The virus isn't "novel" anymore. R0 is reduced by lockdowns and testing, fewer contacts, and masks, using a tissue, distance, washing, lower probability of transmission per contact.
When the effective reproduction number falls below 1, the pandemic dies out.
"100 Years after the Spanish Flu: Lessons Learned and Challenges for the Future"
https://www.infectioncontroltoday.co...llenges-future
Attachment 321374
an example curve for bacteria
"Active immunity can be acquired by natural disease or by vaccination."
Search for Coronavirus Vaccine Becomes a Global Competition
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/u...mpetition.html
But what going to happen in the short term?
If the number of infections keeps rising, and health care breaks down in poor countries, or the EU, they're not going to be waiting around for FDA fucking approval. Whole populations will be the clinical trials.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yf9IfEDPP_k
Thank you for a serious answer, I appreciate it.
All good stuff to know!
Update: Hard closure now, nobody allowed in YNP.Quote:
Originally Posted by bobz
The Israel surveillance situation is absolutely nuts. Makes China cams look like a monastery.
Yep. Sign of the times. I had to take mine in today (shameless plug here for Blazin' Saddles, Sisters OR https://www.facebook.com/BlazinSaddlesHub/)Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyoverland Captive
Their SOP for repairs:
- Make appt, leave bike at door and split
- They disinfect the bike, do the work, disinfect again
- They call when done, get your cc info and arrange a pickup time
- Pick up bike in rental rack at appointed time
It's a good thing they disinfected it first. I blew major snot all over the frame on the last ride in November
Only drawback is I don't get to drink their free beer and kibitz while I wait. First world problem.
If you want product, you stand at the door and tell them what you want. They bring a couple of alternatives to you for inspection. You get to touch after you pay
Owner has a one month-old son at home so this makes all kinds of sense to me.
For the last couple of days you had to make an appointment to even go to the bank (drive through OK). I don't see this as a major problem. Why does anyone see this even as an inconvenience? Even for the business owner? It's actually more efficient.
One of my largest client's investors sent me this today. Well worth the five minutes to read IMO
The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
Epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who warned of pandemic in 2006, says we can beat the novel coronavirus—but first, we need lots more testing.
Excerpts
Quote:
The whole epidemiological community has been warning everybody for the past 10 or 15 years that it wasn't a question of whether we were going to have a pandemic like this. It was simply when. It's really hard to get people to listen. I mean, Trump pushed out the admiral on the National Security Council, who was the only person at that level who's responsible for pandemic defense. With him went his entire downline of employees and staff and relationships. And then Trump removed the [early warning] funding for countries around the world.
Note that S Korea and USA identified their first case on the same day... and they have a population of like 53 millionQuote:
But there's really good news from South Korea—they had less than 100 cases today. China had more cases imported than it had from continuous transmission from Wuhan today. The Chinese model will be very hard for us to follow. We're not going to be locking people up in their apartments, boarding them up. But the South Korea model is one that we could follow. Unfortunately, it requires doing the proportionate number of tests that they did—they did well over a quarter of a million tests. In fact, by the time South Korea had done 200,000 tests, we had probably done less than 1,000.
https://www.wired.com/story/coronavi...XCLUDE_ScienceQuote:
The world is not going to begin to look normal until three things have happened. One, we figure out whether the distribution of this virus looks like an iceberg, which is one-seventh above the water, or a pyramid, where we see everything. If we're only seeing right now one-seventh of the actual disease because we're not testing enough, and we're just blind to it, then we're in a world of hurt. Two, we have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral. And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people—in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease—are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer. And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be comfortable sending our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious.
Good read. Simple.
Excellent article, thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by TBS
But I have to think that he's naive if he thinks that only medical personnel, first responders, and teachers are going to have cards. You can bet your ass that corporations, office buildings, and lots of people with the lawyers, guns, and money, are going to restrict entry to buildings. "Cold Zones" or "Safe Zones." Public spaces, maybe CDC recommended/airport/Singapore taking people's temperature.
Attachment 321383
You could dominate Tinder with one of those cards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozo T. Clown
Armed guards outside every hospital protecting medical personnel evaluating potential patients for viability and triage. Let at least 10% of the population die as that will be the number with that minimal intervention approach. That is the only other solution and I'm not opposed to it but it's what will be needed if we go any other route.Quote:
Originally Posted by My Pet Powder Goat
It doesn't matter what I do, tweaking the variables beyond the limits of optimism.
I run the models and all the hospital beds are full in 13-16 days.
Maybe it will just peak there with the lockdown.
I'm so tired. I'll try again.
Local bookshop and nursery in Santa Cruz operating the same way. I’m okay with this if the shop can work with one employee and transactions outside. People need books, plants and video games. Economy need to continue. I might by a bike at retail price this week. From a local shop. To help keep them going.Quote:
Originally Posted by seano732
Friend on corporate conf call in Reno execs said national guard gonna roll. Gun restrictions and alcohol sales ban.
Alcohol ban? Are they trying to fill the ICUs with alcohol withdrawal patients? Need those beds for COVIDQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
WTF
Wuhan pollution photos are so two weeks ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rideski
Singapore was doing the same thing. Huge number of people doing back traces on people’s movement using cctv and mobile phone pings. Not an opt in situation eitherQuote:
Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark