The only thing that getting obliterated is Sec of Def at lunch
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The only thing that getting obliterated is Sec of Def at lunch
Sent from my iPad using TGR Forums
Whiskey Leaks wasn't the problem this time. The DoD did the whole misdirection thing with the B-2s because of Trump's social media leaks. It's nuts how eveyone knew ahead of time it was going to happen.
The key point most are ignoring in the CNN article, "The Israeli assessment of the impact of the US strikes also found less damage on Fordow than expected. However, Israeli officials believe the combination of US and Israeli military action on multiple nuclear sites set back the Iranian nuclear program by two years, assuming they are able to rebuild it unimpeded which Israel would not allow. "
I think you are reading too much into that statement. It can be interpreted many different ways: one of those ways is that it would take Iran two years to build their nuclear program back up to the previous capacity... but it would only take a couple months (or less) to enrich their currennt stockpile to weapons grade and create a bomb. Dont forget that everything being released right now is HEAVY on the propoganda and spin.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
Isn't it kind of wild that the White House announces that they are waiting on israeli intelligence to confirm how much damage was caused at fordow? Like, they are basically saying "we are waiting on the israeli spies in specific places within the Iranian government to pass along sensitive intel here in the next day or two". Doesnt that put Israeli assets at serious risk, because Iran can just release different bits of information internally to shape different narratives and then based on which narrative gets leaked, go after that group of people? Im sure that Israel screens and engineers all information passed along to dumps & co. because they know he cannot be trusted to use common sense spilling the confidential beans.
The way you interpreted IS heavy on your own propaganda and spin
Another important point most are ignoring is deterrence. Iran just took a huge L from the US and responded with a half-assed face-saving strike on U.S. bases. The Patriot System, much improved by Ukrainians for what it's worth, easily countered the Iranian attack. Video shows air defenses intercepting incoming Iranian missiles over Qatar:
https://x.com/Newyork__i/status/1937199650089697538
Iran says it's going to sue for emotional distress and damages
Regardless, the loud mouth telegraphing and dithering by Trump did allow Iran to mitigate the damage to their stockpile and infrastructure.
The US had and has the ability to bolt from the blue strike Iran without a week of Israeli attacks and US threats. We didn't do that because Trump is an indecisive blowhard. But, his team managed to flip reality on its head once again and sell it as if Trump had tricked the Iranians.
No. Iran figured we'd strike. They knew it was coming. Yea, they didn't know exactly when. But they had days to prepare to move some critical shit around and bury the entrances that we coulda put TLAMs into.
Time will tell just how bad we hit the program, how much we and the Izzies can continue to supress it before more strikes are needed, etc which ultimately defines whether this strike was worth it to us. If we really crushed the inside of Natanz and utterly destroyed Fordos centrifuges and usability in the future, that is a good W. If we didn't and Iran saved its stockpile, we tooted our horn and blew our wad for little gain.
It was worth it to Israel (and Ukraine) as again, they massively degraded Iranian ballistic missile and drone capabilities and production.
With all due respect, confidently interpreting that very intentionally ambiguous statement by Israeli officials to mean the best case outcome is heavy on YOUR own propoganda and spin. Israel isnt a bunch of chuckleheads, they are fucking smart about nearly everything they do (ethics are a separate topic), so of course their statement leaves a shitton of wiggle room. They didn't issue dumbass rehetoric like ol Hegseth and dumps saying "the Iranian nuclear facilities and ambitions have been totally and completely obliterated", because they frankly still dont have a great assessment of exactly how Iran's nuclear weapons progam has been affected. Acting like you do know, based on a press release blurb is just dumb. Noting that the press release blurb was intentionally ambiguous and could mean a number of different things is all i ever said.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
You realize we agree on 90% of this issue, but you are trying to dunk on me (and others) for not immediatley buying the full offical government narrative (which keeps changing btw) and instead taking a more wait and see how it all shakes out approach.
A couple thoughts:Quote:
Originally Posted by summit
if the GBU57s weren't actaully as effective as claimed, that is a BIG loss to america. The fear of a weapon is worth as much as the actual power of the weapon. If we had never dropped those bombs, the rest of teh world would have still had to fear and overdesign infrastructure to defend against them, and would have had to take into account that we may be able to destroy even their most hardened bunkers. If it is found out that those bombs werent able to do a great job penetrating and damaging the Iranian hardened targets, then that "card" loses its value when we threaten to play it again (globally). So, i hope that the bombs worked to perfection, and that this strike was worth it.
2) What would have been a badass move by mossad, is to use small FPV kamikaze drones to follow the Semi Trucks into the Fordow facility in the days leading up to the american attack, and detonate within the facility. Those FPVs are fucking fast and could probably be made fairly quiet... i bet they could have swooped in after the trucks right before the outer doors where shut. I gotta believe they have some AI piloted drones in the works to address the jamming issue too.
The likelier scenario is the GBU57s were probably more effective than people think but did not collapse the structure:
- The fact that the structure did not collapse is the primary evidence for the preliminary DIA assessment
- Natanz above-ground enrichment program completely destroyed, GBU57s did major damage at Fordow, Isfahan facility where the actual uranium metal for bombs is made is destroyed, Isfahan's underground structures damaged but not destroyed
- Thousands of centrifuges destroyed in the Israeli and U.S. airstrikes
- Most of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium now buried at Isfahan and Fordow
- Iran's first and second tier nuclear scientists killed
- Iranian military officials are providing fabricated situation reports to the clerics to downplay the damage to the nuclear program
^^^ Brought to you by the Department of Making Shit up to suit your own wishes and dreams. For fuck sake can you ever just admit we don't know?
You do know there's such a thing as satellites that can take pictures of the earth, right?
Yeah, it was on the news. So what?
What is the meaning of scenario?Quote:
The likelier scenario
: a sequence of events especially when imagined. especially : an account or synopsis of a possible course of action or events. his scenario for a settlement envisages …
There's images of the destroyed facilities, that's what
You are fucking hopeless. I will try and help you out. We do not know.
We don't know everything but we do know more than you seem to think we do
sure about that? Or is it what you desperately want to be true?Quote:
A preliminary intelligence report found that the U.S. military’s strikes last weekend on three Iranian nuclear facilities only set back Tehran’s nuclear ambitions by a few months, countering claims made by President Trump and the White House, according to people familiar with the intelligence.
Bunion, you are always, always late the party. That article is what we've been discussing and is already superseded by newer evidence. Even the Atomic Energy Commission, the people who have visited these sites, are now saying the damage to Iran's nuclear weapons program is serious and extensive
Guys explosives and blasting is a very empirical field and there's not a lot of guesswork. There is only a small set of reasons why these strike packages might not perform as anticipated - defective ordinance components, unforeseen passive defenses, clean misses... I wouldnt trust the Iranians to do anything but dis- and mis-inform. Have to assume they have a plan for this event too.
@MV; fair enough, it is what you desperately wish to be true, meanwhile we just do not know, a lot. But perhaps you would like to provide your CV in BDA assessments and your DNI background.
@HA, very true about blasting, I was a certified blaster of rock for 20 years. However that discipline is somewhat different than dropping guided munitions from 30+K feet.
And I dont trust the Iranians anymore than I trust BN or Trump.
.Quote:
Hegseth and Rubio Grudgingly Admit Bomb Intel Leak Is True
The leak cast doubt on Trumps claim that his strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites resulted in obliteration.
Updated Jun. 25 2025 11:32AM EDT /
Published Jun. 25 2025 8:50AM ED
Two of Donald Trump’s top allies (Rubio/Hegseth)admitted a bombshell leak about the Iran strikes was true Wednesday. But they then attacked leakers behind the release of the intelligence report that undercut the president’s claims about the success of U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Yes, the DIA assessment exists and was leaked that's what they mean by the "Leak Is True." No, not everything was "obliterated." Nobody here is making that claim. The fact that the sites were not "obliterated" is not the same thing as the sites were not badly damaged.
Now we are getting somewhere. Have a nice day.
Something i read on the internet is that the penetration of a GBU57 is like 60m-80m into most rock or 2000psi concrete, but reduces to 15m-18m with 5000psi concrete (standard roadway concrete), and reduces quite a bit more for 10,0000psi concrete. The big unknown is how fortified the facilities actually are- how thick the concrete/rock is there, what strength/reinforcement the concrete is, how the concrete is shaped to deflect, are there caverns to confuse smart fuses, etc... and we also dont know if old GBU57s were used for which we have the public operating specs, or if a newer variant that has better penetration and maybe even a rocket booster to supplement gravity was used?Quote:
Originally Posted by highangle
It would appear that ventilation shafts were targeted, so theoretically those would be a softer target, but at the same time the Iranians have seen star wars, and may have beefed up the area around where the ventilation shafts daylight as they know that was the most likely target location. So maybe we hit the most fortified part of the entire facility?
The bigger unknown is what happens when you stack multiple GBU57s in sequence one-after-another?
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan “Razin” Caine: “Initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction. More than 125 US aircraft participated in this mission, including B2 stealth bombers, multiple flights of fourth and fifth generation fighters, dozens and dozens of air refueling tankers, a guided missile submarine, and a full array of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance aircraft, as well as hundreds of maintenance and operational professionals.”
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi: “Given the explosive payload utilized, and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred. At the Esfahan nuclear site, additional buildings were hit, with the US confirming their use of cruise missiles. Affected buildings include some related to the uranium conversion process. Also at this site, entrances to tunnels used for the storage of enriched material appear to have been hit. At the Natanz enrichment site, the Fuel Enrichment Plant was hit, with the US confirming that it used ground-penetrating munitions.”
Jerry Shriver would warn against trusting bomb damage assessment, but he's dead.
That’s ridiculous summit. Especially for you.
Trump let the IAF do the dirty work, because why not? If Im supposed to think he was supposed to randomly order a b2 strike, that would not have gone over as well geo politically, and it would have been riskier for our planes and pilots, and this is 99% and Israeli show anyway. and trump doesn’t want to lose one. Why? Why Would we?
I’m sure plenty will go wrong, but so far, what Israel has done the last yr., exploding pagers, annihilating Iranian air defenses, has been nothing short of remarkable in any historical context you can find. Israel has its priorities too. Trump let them off the leash, and just hit 3 of many high priority targets.