Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

Gambling. Gee... shucks. Good entertainment, but play the long game if you’re using real money. Gambling is a waste of energy and lifespan. Poker is cheaper and more funnerer.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Exchange prices starting to diverge again. Same as last weekend.

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Sooo, for someone with more technical knowledge than me... at what price spread does it become profitable to cycle BTC between accounts on exchanges with different prices (after fees)? ...buying low selling high, rinse and repeat?

I'm guessing that's a 'whale's' game, if such a strategy is employed?

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Originally Posted by swissiphic

Sooo, for someone with more technical knowledge than me... at what price spread does it become profitable to cycle BTC between accounts on exchanges with different prices (after fees)? ...buying low selling high, rinse and repeat?

I'm guessing that's a 'whale's' game, if such a strategy is employed?

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Here's a small article I read on the practice earlier this year. It's not easy technically.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-money-beckons

I suspect the next disconnected market will be intercrypto swaps.

My attention span for this is waning.

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Originally Posted by Dromontana

Around 2010 I was having a good year, all bulled up on a BAC call position, when they sent out a release acknowledging $3bln in goodwill impairments on their retail credit business due to legislative changes. That took precisely everything I had gained over the prior 6 months trading small caps. So I stopped trading for a few years.

Another time I had a good sized account, trading crude, gas & bond futures with a small hf manager in Canada. Waking up to a few thousand in overnight gains is intoxicating. He encouraged me to load the boat on risk given his fund's rigorous backtesting. But I didn't have my own risk controls & got hammered for about 60% losses as natgas gyrated & crude cycled into its major cycle low in early 2016. I bought a few front crude contracts within a dollar of the $26 WTI low, but recent losses had stripped me of conviction, and I sold two days later. Listless & deeply discouraged, I quit futures & stopped trading altogether for 6 months. Even waited 18 months to claim the losses with the IRS.

Family confirmed what I had already ruled out: I had a gambling addiction, without question. A genuine aversion to negative EV casino games, alonside 15 years of consistently profitable poker play in underground games, Atlantic City and online rooms were ignored at the feet of the emotion associated with such a big loss in financial markets. Thousands of hours of disciplined risk/reward play was being erased in favor of the unwarranted certitude that goes along with bringing a son down to size. The well-intentioned but platitudinous advice didn't take.

Nowadays when I hear about brutal losses, my eyelids sink. I know the feeling too well. Disgust with blind ambition, inability to see future opportunity past the inherent risk (no matter the proportion to potential reward), indecision about what to do next. The other day a coworker told me that my repeated warnings about a gold-bug 'analyst' whose views he was promoting just betrayed the fact that I had been burned in the markets. My first thought was to smile & realize he was a risk virgin, just deceiving himself, or a moron altogether. Ignorant to the challenges that invariably target the most talented among us. Content to dismiss the well-intentioned warnings of a colleage. Certain about future market changes. I'd say 'must be nice' but I know where that road leads.

So I toil and scratch & claw each week to capture what's likely a pittance for many on this board, much less among professional 'peers'. Why? Because I love the process. And besides, what else in this world offers a more skewed upside than learning how to run money? Nearly all that begrudge the profession do so out of an intense frustration with their own inability to partake.

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A damn insightful look into your own inclinations.

Here we go?
Below $13k


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The underlying blockchain tech here makes sense to validate transactions, but as a currency Bitcoin doesn't make sense to me. Used it to buy some pharmaceuticals from overseas once via Coinbase, but the process was a pain in the ass. Also, who wants to wait hours to make a transaction with a currency that appears to be cornered by Chinese miners? What is stopping everyone from just moving to the next cryptocurrency that processes faster?

Ripple (XRP) makes more sense to me as a tool to move state backed currency around in place of SWIFT. They already have banks on board.

All that said, I'm absolutely kicking myself for not mining this shit when it first came out. I even went so far as to have a wallet set up and some mining software in 2009 but never actually ran it. Doh.

https://www.icmag.com/ic/picture.php...tureid=1813099

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Originally Posted by Bobby Stainless

My attention span for this is waning.

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That's cause you think it's a card game. Short money. The real players know this is a long. Very long.

My close friend big players (could probably cash in now and retire at 30yrs old even with cap gains taxes) are thinking 10+ years minimum.

Big money is in the tech. Supply chain, real estate transactions, etc. Think bigger than it simply being a new form of currency. I don't know that currency part will ever really come to fruition .

Good luck gamblers.

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I don't understand the conviction moves as charted above, drobro. They look arbitrarily designated.
But I am ignorant in your level of insightful expertise.

There's a fair amount of subjectivity involved, but a conviction move is price moving rapidly up or down without consolidation over time. Many instruments have prolonged periods of consolidation in ranges that can be wide or narrow, followed by violent new trends where the market seeks to find new value, an updated agreement on where price should be. Consolidation that was centered at 16,200 was a good indication that staying under it would trigger a push towards 12,000 that we see today.

On a good little run.

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Originally Posted by Skidog

That's cause you think it's a card game. Short money. The real players know this is a long. Very long.

My close friend big players (could probably cash in now and retire at 30yrs old even with cap gains taxes) are thinking 10+ years minimum.

Big money is in the tech. Supply chain, real estate transactions, etc. Think bigger than it simply being a new form of currency. I don't know that currency part will ever really come to fruition .

Good luck gamblers.

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there are hundreds of crytp currencies, and more to come, there is obviously going to be consolidation amoungst the currencies. nobody knows what a long term viable cryto currency is

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Originally Posted by DBdude

there are hundreds of crytp currencies, and more to come, there is obviously going to be consolidation amoungst the currencies. nobody knows what a long term viable cryto currency is

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No one knows the short term either obviously.

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Originally Posted by DBdude

there are hundreds of crytp currencies, and more to come, there is obviously going to be consolidation amoungst the currencies. nobody knows what a long term viable cryto currency is

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I think consolidation implies they'll combine or merge. It's more "some will survive and some will go away completely"

There may be some consolidation, and others will die, but there will always be new ones being created. They are necessary for the decentralized ledgers and networks to function. Some crypto currencies exist simply as a vehicle within a blockchain or distributed ledger network. Scarcity is required to make the network function. So any time a new network is setup, or a private company decides to build their own, or whatever, the scarce vehicle that is tracked around the ledgers is a new crypto currency. That is why I like ripple so much, they help other companies build out their own networks, or let companies piggyback on theirs that don't want a full blown solution on their own.
Wish I could buy stock in ripple, but they are private.

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Originally Posted by Skidog

That's cause you think it's a card game. Short money. The real players know this is a long. Very long.

My close friend big players (could probably cash in now and retire at 30yrs old even with cap gains taxes) are thinking 10+ years minimum.

Big money is in the tech. Supply chain, real estate transactions, etc. Think bigger than it simply being a new form of currency. I don't know that currency part will ever really come to fruition .

Good luck gamblers.

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I could also pull out (heh) and make a few thousand but its not really worth it at this point.

10 years.... Damn.

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Originally Posted by Bobby Stainless

I could also pull out (heh) and make a few thousand but its not really worth it at this point.

10 years.... Damn.

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Every investor looks at it differently. I trust the individual in question. I just missed the boat as usual. Most of its a bit to rich for my blood at the moment. I'm far from a gambler.

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BTC is holding up well considering the technical move it's recovering from. 800-19,900 in a year is nutty, and btc acts like a stock would after moving 1/20th that amount. Pretty bullish for cryptos in general imo. Still holding neo and looking to add more on dips. Bought a little eth and back in bcc/bch on the retrace. 2018 should see more money move into crypto, so the question is where? Ltc is soft and I'm suspicious of ripple, but ZRX & NEO could throw a chart rager this year.

I see it a little differently. BTC bounced off the 38% retrace but here we are right back on the 38% line almost two weeks later. You could probably be long here on the daily chart but risk is high for a test of 50% down to 62%.

Good points, I'm not planning to go long btc here, just a few alts. Even in 2014 btc took a few months to fully break down, so as long as we can use the 2014 bottoming process as an analogue, my concerns over money fleeing the space is low, at least for the time being. So, long some alts on overall inflow to crypto, monitoring btc.

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Originally Posted by Skidog

That's cause you think it's a card game. Short money. The real players know this is a long. Very long.

My close friend big players (could probably cash in now and retire at 30yrs old even with cap gains taxes) are thinking 10+ years minimum.

Big money is in the tech. Supply chain, real estate transactions, etc. Think bigger than it simply being a new form of currency. I don't know that currency part will ever really come to fruition .

Good luck gamblers.

Sent from my XT1650 using TGR Forums mobile app

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Well said. Wait until every grocery store in the country uses Ethereum (or whatever wins out) to manage national supply chains with every distributor they work with. Then think of the amount of money that hasn't even begun to touch this space (university endowments, retirement accounts, etc.).

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Originally Posted by wakefield

Then think of the amount of money that hasn't even begun to touch this space (university endowments, retirement accounts, etc.).

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North Korea, IRS, FBI, Treasury, and DOJ.. The whole thing can collapse in a sea of global regulation. Define your risk.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

North Korea, IRS, FBI, Treasury, and DOJ.. The whole thing can collapse in a sea of global regulation. Define your risk.

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I wonder if any Govts are using crypto coins to fund whatever black ops shit they have going on?

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Originally Posted by Bobby Stainless

I wonder if any Govts are using crypto coins to fund whatever black ops shit they have going on?

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I wouldn't doubt it for a second. Much easier and more tidy than pallets of bundles of stacks of Hundred Dollar bills.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

North Korea, IRS, FBI, Treasury, and DOJ.. The whole thing can collapse in a sea of global regulation. Define your risk.

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That's what makes me wonder.

Big Brother takes a dim view of other people controlling the money supply.

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Originally Posted by wakefield

Well said. Wait until every grocery store in the country uses Ethereum (or whatever wins out) to manage national supply chains with every distributor they work with. Then think of the amount of money that hasn't even begun to touch this space (university endowments, retirement accounts, etc.).

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Walmart is working on a program in China for the exact supply chain scenario. Problem right now is that all those places are private companies. They're getting snatched up by the big boys..

Quantum computing is where all this shit really takes off. #secure

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Originally Posted by Bobby Stainless

I wonder if any Govts are using crypto coins to fund whatever black ops shit they have going on?

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Did I just hear Australia 'banned' bitcoin?

for those of us still catching up...

https://www.wired.com/story/future-o...daily_list3_p4

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Originally Posted by Mau

Back in 2013, the FBI seized 144,000 bitcoins when they busted Ross Ulbricht, the owner and creator of the Silk Road marketplace. They valued the seizure at $28.5 million.

At bitcoin's current price of $12,618.00, Ross's stash of 144,000 bitcoins are worth $1.8 billion.

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This. No telling how much the US Govt has.

That lot was sold for $48 million to single buyer.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/us-g...too-early.html

One rational for the rise of BTC is the feds legitimizing it through legal sale.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

That lot was sold for $48 million to single buyer.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/us-g...too-early.html

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Price per coin - $333.333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 3333333333333333333

NEO all time highs, same for ETH.

Oh ETH nice!

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...2e3310671c.jpg

Had some BCH hit today that I completely forgot about buying.

Looks like we are back on track from the Holiday lull.

Ripple makes 0 sense to me, but this market is 100% irrational. I swear people are just buying whatever can get them the most coins. But if it dips again, I'll probably try to catch it.

ADA and NEO are on a run. I'm hoping ETH can get past $900 this week.

I've been keeping an eye on a Discord channel that's got some interesting chatter in it. LMK if you want the link/invite.

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Originally Posted by Skidog

Walmart is working on a program in China for the exact supply chain scenario. Problem right now is that all those places are private companies. They're getting snatched up by the big boys..

Quantum computing is where all this shit really takes off. #secure

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US grocery stores (and I assume other companies) are doing this too, working with IBM and, through them, Ethereum.

I know Cardano is working on quantum resistance (https://cardanoroadmap.com/). Who else?

Amex partnered with ripple to launch their first blockchain based product, a forex sub product.
Ripple is the company I wish I could buy stock in.

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Originally Posted by wakefield

Ripple makes 0 sense to me, but this market is 100% irrational. I swear people are just buying whatever can get them the most coins. But if it dips again, I'll probably try to catch it.

ADA and NEO are on a run. I'm hoping ETH can get past $900 this week.

I've been keeping an eye on a Discord channel that's got some interesting chatter in it. LMK if you want the link/invite.

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Thats strange because ripple makes the most sense to me. Disruptive payment technology that has a real world use. I've got a few thousand XRP coins offline on a wallet and they have treated me well so far. Despite that, I honestly believe its not even scratching the surface of its forex uses. My honest hope is that "coins" could be converted to common shares at some point in future. Like buying into the visa or mastercard payment universe 40 years ago.
Either way it was gambling money for me and has done way better then Thanskgiving at the Venetia roulette tables did for me.

Wonder when Coinbase will add Ripple? That will cause another shitshow like BCH.