Wasatch Conditions 10-11

Two stoopid question from a weather guy who doesn't know enough about snow science.
With all the surface hoar and faceting the best case to refresh the snow pack is a series of smallish steady snowfalls right? Like a big dump would be a death trap no?

Anybody going to be in LCC on the 24 is welcome to get drunk with me on my 30th bday. I'll be the jackass skiing in a suit.

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Originally Posted by lionelhutz

Two stoopid question from a weather guy who doesn't know enough about snow science.
With all the surface hoar and faceting the best case to refresh the snow pack is a series of smallish steady snowfalls right? Like a big dump would be a death trap no?
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Probably the best thing now would be a warm spell or rain to melt it. Buried surface hoar and facets will sit there until it's overloaded. Wind can blow it away, but from what I've seen it seems like a lot of garbage just sitting on top of the snow pack, so it would take a huge windstorm (and obviously wind doesn't help in sheltered spots) A big dump can overload it quickly, and you can get a natural avalanche cycle while small storms can just cover it and keep things hanging in balance until someone gets on the slope and triggers it (or you get enough small storms that add up and overload it)

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Originally Posted by sfotex

Probably the best thing now would be a warm spell or rain to melt it. Buried surface hoar and facets will sit there until it's overloaded. Wind can blow it away, but from what I've seen it seems like a lot of garbage just sitting on top of the snow pack, so it would take a huge windstorm (and obviously wind doesn't help in sheltered spots) A big dump can overload it quickly, and you can get an avalanche cycle. Small storms can just cover it and keep things hanging in balance until someone gets on the slope and triggers it.

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You could also challenge trackhead to see if he can't ski all of it out before the next storm. He'll need to start making bigger turns though.

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Originally Posted by sfotex

Probably the best thing now would be a warm spell or rain to melt it. Buried surface hoar and facets will sit there until it's overloaded. Wind can blow it away, but from what I've seen it seems like a lot of garbage just sitting on top of the snow pack, so it would take a huge windstorm (and obviously wind doesn't help in sheltered spots) A big dump can overload it quickly, and you can get a natural avalanche cycle while small storms can just cover it and keep things hanging in balance until someone gets on the slope and triggers it (or you get enough small storms that add up and overload it)

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Or, simply put, a temperature gradient that would create a rounding process after a storm event on top of the surface hoar layer. (Of course, the new snow would have to have sufficient moisture to facilitate the rounding).

skied this in the central wasatch yesterday. didn't see anyone else (one group was way in front of us but we never caught them and they took a different fork), didn't get in a fight, didn't get highmarked, had a great time even if we didn't get our objective.

not sure the line we skied has an official name. it entered hogum fork from the saddle at the base of the coalpit headwall, north of the needle. y coulior had a nice booter all the way up, making for a record time up it for me (2 hours). snow was great a couple 3-7 inches on a firm surface.

fun was had!

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y25..._2605727_n.jpg

I was shaking my head the other day at how I've been saying "It looks like January" since Halloween and now that it is January some places have a snowpack that looks a lot like November. Quite a few of the steeper places on Timp are only ~1m deep, having slid huuuge a few weeks ago. In those places the snow is weakening particularly fast.

The weak layers that are developing seem to me likely to stick with us for a while, regardless of type of storm that comes in next. A series of weaker disturbances like the one forecasted for tonight will delicately add straw to the camel's back. A big shock to the developing weak layers - like last month's big, wet, windy storms - would be better for getting most slopes to slide during a short time period. But, with as much NFS as there is out there, I can imagine slopes avalanching repeatedly rather than just hitting the reset button once and being good to go.

I'm no forecaster, but I think it'll probably take getting a couple feet on top of the current snow surface and then waiting a couple weeks for the avy rose to drop back into the happy little green-with-yellow-dots bullseye we've been seeing.

In the mean time, with foot or two on top of these faceted grains we'll be more likely to see avalanches that are wider, break above the person who triggered it, don't necessarily fail with the first skier down, wrap around ridges, etc. Seems to me that the hazard will trend towards less-manageable avalanches as compared to the relatively predictable ones we've mostly seen this year.

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Originally Posted by The Gnarwhale

I was shaking my head the other day at how I've been saying "It looks like January" since Halloween and now that it is January some places have a snowpack that looks a lot like November. Quite a few of the steeper places on Timp are only ~1m deep, having slid huuuge a few weeks ago. In those places the snow is weakening particularly fast.

The weak layers that are developing seem to me likely to stick with us for a while, regardless of type of storm that comes in next. A series of weaker disturbances like the one forecasted for tonight will delicately add straw to the camel's back. A big shock to the developing weak layers - like last month's big, wet, windy storms - would be better for getting most slopes to slide during a short time period. But, with as much NFS as there is out there, I can imagine slopes avalanching repeatedly rather than just hitting the reset button once and being good to go.

I'm no forecaster, but I think it'll probably take getting a couple feet on top of the current snow surface and then waiting a couple weeks for the avy rose to drop back into the happy little green-with-yellow-dots bullseye we've been seeing.

In the mean time, with foot or two on top of these faceted grains we'll be more likely to see avalanches that are wider, break above the person who triggered it, don't necessarily fail with the first skier down, wrap around ridges, etc. Seems to me that the hazard will trend towards less-manageable avalanches as compared to the relatively predictable ones we've mostly seen this year.

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Good write up, Jim. Quoting this thing just in the hopes that people read it twice.

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Originally Posted by The Gnarwhale

In the mean time, with foot or two on top of these faceted grains we'll be more likely to see avalanches that are wider, break above the person who triggered it, don't necessarily fail with the first skier down, wrap around ridges, etc. Seems to me that the hazard will trend towards less-manageable avalanches as compared to the relatively predictable ones we've mostly seen this year.

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So what would normally be a great easy to ski storm of 12 inches would become a killer.

< loads up days on alta card/>

^^^

Good call.

north face of claytons and hidden canyon was sweet yesterday. all the cold sucked the moisture out of the snow creating velvety conditions. some wind slab on ridges.

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Originally Posted by lionelhutz

So what would normally be a great easy to ski storm of 12 inches would become a killer.

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While I agree with gnarwhales asessment/post thats a bit over the top imo
here's a bit of belated stoke from the pen.
Sfotex
http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y19...m/P1021590.jpg
Toph
http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y19...m/PC311548.jpg

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Originally Posted by BRUTAH

skied this in the central wasatch yesterday. didn't see anyone else (one group was way in front of us but we never caught them and they took a different fork), didn't get in a fight, didn't get highmarked, had a great time even if we didn't get our objective.

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That's because it was in the beloved Wasatch wilderness, where few negative interactions occur, thankfully.

North still skiing well below 10k. Greenhousing appeared to dampen the snow down low today. Its snowing in PC now, not super hard but good to see none the less.
http://www.tgrmedia.com/i.ashx?w=800...ap_730X550.jpg

Bummer about the belt buckle.

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Originally Posted by Jimmy Tart

My partner and I had only just started up the meat of the couloir, barely past the second small set of rocks when a small wet, loose flow ran down the center. We were ascending the climbers left and were able to stay out of the way of this small slide. Not sure if that came out naturally, or if there were skiers above us ( there was a boot pack already set, and recent-looking ski tracks) we hunkered down for a minute and discussed our next moves. I moved up another 15 vertical feet to try to get a better perspective with my partner a little below me. Right after he got to me, we saw a very small point release come off the rocks above us and to the climbers right. Putting two and two together we decided to bail quickly. I stayed put for a minute, as I was in one of the little alcove nooks in the rocks in a fairly safe spot while my partner started to down climb. When he got to a spot that limited his exposure, I started to down climb, too. I moved down quickly to the next alcove and paused to check on my partner, still below me. The rumbling from above made me turn back uphill. I looked up and saw that something quite large had released above us to the climbers right and was now emptying into the couloir directly above us. I looked down while shouting to my partner, who was out of sight around a corner, and latched onto the granite in front of me. A fat sidepull lip with my right and a fingers crack with my left. I was out of the gut of the couloir, hidden behind rocks and holding on tight... ... With my skis on my pack sticking halfway up from behind the rocks. I was sheltered from the flow, but it managed to grab my skis with enough force that I was peeled out of my nook like the rocks were not even there. Tumble, tumble, tumble, fight, fight, fight. Sunlight and stillness. Clawed for that open space over there. When everything stopped, I was sitting on top in the fan in the runout. While doing the mental " head, shoulders, knees and toes" check, I realize that both my skis and both my poles are within 30 feet of me, on top of the snow. What are the odds of that? Yell for my partner and switch my beacon the search while scrambling off to the side. He yells back, as I see him at a dead run down the couloir. Quick beacon sweep of the debris, just to make sure. Everyone was ok. The flow went right by my partner. I have a scratch on my knuckle and lost my favorite belt buckle. I really liked that buckle. What I think happened was the new snow + warming temps on the thin snowpack on the rocky, scrubby area to our right failed naturally. From the parking lot afterward, there is a small, but obvious, path kinda fall line below the Y-not that looked to be the guilty party. A roller ball off a rock could have started the whole thing. While still in the parking lot, I witnessed two other naturals in the same zone. In hindsight, we placed too much faith in the aspect to keep temps cool. We bailed when the signs were big, flashing and neon, but we should have gone else where. I made a mistake and got lucky. Things could have been much worse.

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^^Close call. FWIW, the UAC's explanation:

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Two main issues with the snow yesterday. The first having to do with the warm temps, high humidity, and greenhousing. Just after noon, a party of two booting up the Y Couloir in mid-Little Cottonwood canyon was pulled down the steep chute by a natural wet sluff cascading down from above. Despite the violent ride, they reported no injuries or lost gear. Cold snow becoming wet and damp for the first time can have a tendency to flush, particularly in the steeper, rocky confined terrain. This sluffing was also reported in the north fork of Provo canyon and elsewhere.

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skied the mill creek ridgeline (btween mill creek and mt aire) yesterday. snow was holding up but just barely; observed pinwheels and rollers, some light point releases. greenhousing was in full effect on the snow pack, still nice snow up high, cool to be in a rarely skied area of the wasatch with great views of the north face of raymond and memorial coolies on olympus. some fun terrain in the area we skied (fun pillow lines and cliff bands, all mini golf stuff), long approaches though esp. if you don't have a cabin to stay in :yourock: skiing is really fun

Good evening all. There are a couple of us hiding out in Eden this weekend and I have a question for you.

Does anyone have an idea of what the weather will be doing in this area? We skied powder mt yesterday and today, but since it rained all day today we are second guessing powder mt for tomorrow. Even though it is just across the valley would snowbasin get better weather?

Sorry to ask so much but I'm looking to ski this amazing Utah pow... So far it's all Sierra cement.

okbye

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Originally Posted by RaccoonFace

Good evening all. There are a couple of us hiding out in Eden this weekend and I have a question for you.

Does anyone have an idea of what the weather will be doing in this area? We skied powder mt yesterday and today, but since it rained all day today we are second guessing powder mt for tomorrow. Even though it is just across the valley would snowbasin get better weather?

Sorry to ask so much but I'm looking to ski this amazing Utah pow... So far it's all Sierra cement.

okbye

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We were at Snowbird today and it was drizzling/raining a good part of the day all the way the top of the Gad 2 lift at 9840 feet. The top of the tram and mineral basin were pretty much unskiable due to horrible visibility. By 3:00 the drizzle had turned into a steady rain :(. Given that the base of pow mow is a good bit lower than Snowbird things don't seem promising. I imagine that Snowbasin is the same as pow mow.

Wow you're stoked. Maybe you will get some wet snow and be able to ski something steep for a change. Add a little wind, and poof- windbuff. Good luck!

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Originally Posted by broham

Wow you're stoked. Maybe you will get some wet snow and be able to ski something steep for a change. Add a little wind, and poof- windbuff. Good luck!

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QFT we'll see how the snowpack holds up though.

10k ridgetop was ripping wind WNW easy 50mph+ around noon. Heavy riming leeward where it wasn't getting blown away. Heavy, wet snow up to almost 11k.

What the heck is going on!!

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Originally Posted by Canada1

What the heck is going on!!

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Hopefully this will knock out that pesky buried surface hoar....

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Originally Posted by wolfelot

We were at Snowbird today and it was drizzling/raining a good part of the day all the way the top of the Gad 2 lift at 9840 feet. The top of the tram and mineral basin were pretty much unskiable due to horrible visibility. By 3:00 the drizzle had turned into a steady rain :(. Given that the base of pow mow is a good bit lower than Snowbird things don't seem promising. I imagine that Snowbasin is the same as pow mow.

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That's too bad. Thank you for the update.

okbye

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Originally Posted by sfotex

Hopefully this will knock out that pesky buried surface hoar....

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was thinking the same thing.

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Originally Posted by RaccoonFace

That's too bad. Thank you for the update.

okbye

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Just in case you were still deciding, I'm at powmow right now and it's sloppy wet up here. Better than no skiing at all, but this rain is killing us.

Apparently trams/lifts are still delayed due to control work...Can anyone comment on whether the rain/vis has improved today?

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Originally Posted by RagDoll

Apparently trams/lifts are still delayed due to control work...Can anyone comment on whether the rain/vis has improved today?

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Drove up to the Bird, nothing open, kept going to Alta. Pulled into the parking lot, saw lift closed, looked at the ugly seen up Alf's and promptly drove home...looks pretty bad is all I can say. Windy and iced from top to bottom. Some pretty ugly slides coming off Rus lookers right, also some shit off up above the 'Ho...Looked like a large tree or down to the ground below the rocks above the cat on Rus. Superior had a pretty large wet slide also.

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Originally Posted by alTAos

Drove up to the Bird, nothing open, kept going to Alta. Pulled into the parking lot, saw lift closed, looked at the ugly seen up Alf's and promptly drove home...looks pretty bad is all I can say. Windy and iced from top to bottom. Some pretty ugly slides coming off Rus lookers right, also some shit off up above the 'Ho...Looked like a large tree or down to the ground below the rocks above the cat on Rus. Superior had a pretty large wet slide also.

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Sweet. I'm heading in on Wednesday night. Always time it right.

Looks like we're dropping in temp. Things should FIRM up quickly. Interesting how the enviornment will cool in advance of the next system on wednesday. Which has some strong upward motion assocaited with it and cooler temps.
Never in all my life did I think I 'd see this moisture on a 48 collins plot and not be talking about feets of snow.

Seriously, what the hell was this storm? Almost 3 inches of rain/ice at 9,700 feet in the Wasatch, in January?! What was the storm and general weather pattern that caused this? Am I correct in thinking things like this only happen every 20 or 30 years?

It sounds like things look ugly, but the settled base depths are holding up, at least at mid mountain. Have a lot of things slid deep or will there just be a 7 foot thick block of ice covering everything in LCC for the rest of the winter?

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Originally Posted by glademaster

Seriously, what the hell was this storm? Almost 3 inches of rain/ice at 9,700 feet in the Wasatch, in January?! What was the storm and general weather pattern that caused this? Am I correct in thinking things like this only happen every 20 or 30 years?

It sounds like things look ugly, but the settled base depths are holding up, at least at mid mountain. Have a lot of things slid deep or will there just be a 7 foot thick block of ice covering everything in LCC for the rest of the winter?

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A few texts from Alta: "Boiler Plate"..."Ice Skating Rink"...."I'm heading to Moab"..."First the Pats lose, then Alta turns into an ice skating rink. I'm over this month"

Can't wait to test it out tomorrow!!

I've heard people from interior BC, where they occasionally get pineapple express storms that rain to the peaks, refer to the rain crust as "raising the ground level." The crust locks up their snowpack, negating the weak layers below.

I'm not sure if the rain level was high enough yesterday to have a similar effect all the way to the peaks in the Wasatch, but I can testify that it was pouring rain at 9500' yesterday. My gloves still haven't dried. Will the persistant weak layers become untouchable anywhere they're capped by a fat rain crust? [/armchair forecasting]

Yea...pretty much now hoping for corn.

LCC shoot this morning.
Sorry for the, no advance warning, but If we shut down your dawn patrol today.........you're really committed.
Got a lot of snow to move off of the High Triangle, gouging through the choke before slowing down and spreading out on the apron. Looking real blue, wet and spring like.
Other results: White Pine, White Pine Chutes, Little Pine ~12" running to aprons.

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Originally Posted by alTAos

A few texts from Alta: "Boiler Plate"..."Ice Skating Rink"...."I'm heading to Moab"..."First the Pats lose, then Alta turns into an ice skating rink. I'm over this month"

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Ha! I'm going to St. George and Palm Springs for a week of pedaling, starting tomorrow. Perfect timing I guess.

Close call from an Avy down in Santaquin yesterday:

http://www.utahclimbers.com/phpBB3/v...p=41593#p41593

anyone have a suggestion on a backcountry touring specific shop around the SLC area? Looking to get another set of skins for my splitboard and get a tailclip installed on them....

Thanks

i'd check out wasatch touring up on like 1st south and 4th or so east, haven't honestly been in there but i hear it's a good spot. also black diamond headquarters has a shop down there that might be able to get you set up.

thanks ill check em out.