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I have a friend in a similar boat. Was teaching art at an English language school in Shenzen. Went skiing in Japan for the lunar new year holiday. That break got extended so he went and sat on a beach in Thailand. Finally they told him to start teaching remotely so he bailed back to California. Kind of hard to teach art remotely though.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2bjenny
We can still send to CDC but it is a longer TAT and the kit failures meant that planned surveillance on negative flu/RVP PCRs is not happening as planned AFAIK.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
Not sure what that has to do with the coronavirus. In early December there were zero cases. Anywhere.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2bjenny
That's why Iran has been the area of greatest concern for me. More deaths than S. Korea or Italy and almost no infections reported. Add to that a politician from Qom said the government is lying and there have already been 50 deaths. All of the countries surrounding Iran are reporting infections from travelers to iran.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
I believe the implication is that this has been going on longer than it officially has. Seems dubious, but who knows.Quote:
Originally Posted by powdork
where i come from in Vancover there are 3 waves of chinese imigrants, the mainland being the latest
the first 2 waves ( Cantonese & Hong kong ) don't trust the mainland chinese
No rule of law in a totalitarian system who can blame them for not playing cricket I supose ?
the first announcement came on 12/31. It's likely the outbreak had started several weeks before that but no way anyone would have closed borders because of it in early December.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ted&yptr=yahoo
The disease (known as COVID-19) seems to have a fatality rate of less than 2 percent—exponentially lower than most outbreaks that make global news. The virus has raised alarm not despite that low fatality rate, but because of it.
Coronaviruses are similar to influenza viruses in that they are both single strands of RNA. Four coronaviruses commonly infect humans, causing colds. These are believed to have evolved in humans to maximize their own spread—which means sickening, but not killing, people. By contrast, the two prior novel coronavirus outbreaks—SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome, named for where the first outbreak occurred)—were picked up from animals, as was H5N1. These diseases were highly fatal to humans. If there were mild or asymptomatic cases, they were extremely few. Had there been more of them, the disease would have spread widely. Ultimately, SARS and MERS each killed fewer than 1,000 people.
COVID-19 is already reported to have killed more than twice that number. With its potent mix of characteristics, this virus is unlike most that capture popular attention: It is deadly, but not too deadly. It makes people sick, but not in predictable, uniquely identifiable ways. Last week, 14 Americans tested positive on a cruise ship in Japan despite feeling fine—the new virus may be most dangerous because, it seems, it may sometimes cause no symptoms at all.
Read: The new coronavirus is a truly modern epidemic
The world has responded with unprecedented speed and mobilization of resources. The new virus was identified extremely quickly. Its genome was sequenced by Chinese scientists and shared around the world within weeks. The global scientific community has shared genomic and clinical data at unprecedented rates. Work on a vaccine is well under way. The Chinese government enacted dramatic containment measures, and the World Health Organization declared an emergency of international concern. All of this happened in a fraction of the time it took to even identify H5N1 in 1997. And yet the outbreak continues to spread.
The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”
Containment is the first step in responding to any outbreak. In the case of COVID-19, the possibility (however implausible) of preventing a pandemic seemed to play out in a matter of days. Starting in January, China began cordoning off progressively larger areas, radiating outward from Wuhan City and eventually encapsulating some 100 million people. People were barred from leaving home, and lectured by drones if they were caught outside. Nonetheless, the virus has now been found in 24 countries.
Despite the apparent ineffectiveness of such measures—relative to their inordinate social and economic cost, at least—the crackdown continues to escalate. Under political pressure to “stop” the virus, last Thursday the Chinese government announced that officials in the Hubei province would be going door to door, testing people for fevers and looking for signs of illness, then sending all potential cases to quarantine camps. But even with the ideal containment, the virus’s spread may have been inevitable. Testing people who are already extremely sick is an imperfect strategy if people can spread the virus without even feeling bad enough to stay home from work.
Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. (Overall, around 14 percent of people with influenza have no symptoms.)
1918/1919 H1N1 paninfluenza had a CFR of ~2.5%
It also infected 40% of the world.
COVID is more contagious. It could kill 1% of the world.
The world has a whole lot more old people alive today, which will skew numbers.
the 1918 flu preferentially killed young men.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
This one is hitting old men right now.
Goodbye, Japan.
Epic Ski would have been devestated had they hung around a few more years.
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^^^^ I had to laugh and as an old fuck with a history of asthma I may be fucked. Headed to Yurp in 4 weeks and plan to be in Tuscany/ Florence. :FIREdevil
Stay away from Florence, if you can. Alcohol is killing this thing, carry a bottle with wipes.
What's your guys prediction on how this will play out in the lower 48?
Like what happens when there are 100 confirmed cases in a city like Boston, MA (for example)?
Will they even be able to force people in to quarantine? They could close schools and shit, but I could see so many people just not listening. Then, before you know it all the hospitals are full in Boston and then the entire East Coast.
Per my post #768, this shit will likely be everywhere in 6 months, so what can you do but have a months worth of food, water, booze, etc at home for when your area gets it. I for one will camp out at home and avoid everyone as much as possible once it shows up in my area.
Read the The Great Influenza if you want to see what happened in the past.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud
I personally know of people violating their self-quarantine orders (not for Coronavirus though). On the other hand, someone got caught doing that in China and was beaten nearly to death by an angry mob.
yeah but its america soQuote:
Originally Posted by Hott Butt Mud
what stock to buy ?
should i get rid of my health corp stocks
Health
It's gonna get to Canada too eh.
You should prepare, get down to the US and stock up on booze and gas at Costco.
I'd buy stock in grocery delivery services. I expect water will still come out of the tap.
As one of the younger mags here, I honestly can't say that I'm that bothered by this whole coronavirus panic.
If anything, I feel bad for those living in the poor and underdeveloped parts of this world who will suffer the brunt of this latest 'flu' virus.
The panic might result in fewer people to deal with on my travels this year, so that'll be the plus.
And stocking up on things? Give me a break.
You can never have enough things, man.
Not really stocking up... most people probably have 2 weeks of food in their house just in the form of dried grains, cereal, snacks, pasta, oils, nuts and canned goods. If you don't have 2 weeks of food in your house you are foolish, not specifically because of the coronavirus. If you don't have it and want to prepare for any major temporary upheaval, you can be a cheapskate about it: drop $30 on a 50# sack of rice, a 50ct bottle of generic tylenol, and extra TP. Congrats you are prepped.
A bag of beans, some camping stove fuel, and some hot sauce to go with that bag of rice and you’re set.
A little perspective...
http://www.enkiops.org/blog/2020/02/...WxUc4EMUkw3z-Q
If you guys aren’t stocked with enough bourbon and beer to last two weeks I just don’t think we can be friends.
https://youtu.be/NVgQxIjFddA
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problem is when they say it is less deadly than the normal flu. the normal flu kills around .1% of it's victims whereas coVid-19 kills around 2.3% (a number that will likely be refined). That's over 20 times more deadly.Quote:
Originally Posted by rideit
With cost of labor so high I don't think restaurants get the cleanliness and sanitation as well as they should. Food borne and contagious transmission is rising at public dining places. I avoid..
^lol
have any citations to back that up?Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Quote:
Originally Posted by powdork
New research issued from a report by the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has discovered that foodborne illness increased in 2018. FoodNet (The Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network) conducts research for CDC and found 25, 606 infections, 5,893 hospitalizations, and 120 deaths were caused by foodborne illness in 2018.
While several E. coli breakouts have dominated recent headlines, there are many other diseases and bacteria that foodservice professionals must watch for. Several of these illnesses experienced dramatic increases in 2018 when compared to 2015-2017:
Cyclospora (399%)
Vibrio (109%)
Yersinia (58%)
STEC (26%)
Campylobacter (12%)
Salmonella (9%)
And that doesn't include flu, colds, etc.
Yes, that certainly is a vexing Vector.Quote:
Originally Posted by powdork
I think it wise for people to restrict their information on COVID 19 to authoritative scientific sources. As an example in the misinformation in this article, a review I did of of several scientific sources seems to indicate that COVID 19 is about 50% more transmissible than influenza with a mortality rate of 2-3% compared to perhaps 0.1% for influenza. The actual numbers for both diseases are hard to know, given the large numbers of undiagnosed cases for both diseases. The actual numbers for COVID 19 are particularly hard to get at because the disease has not been recognized for very long.Quote:
Originally Posted by rideit
I'd suggest that people consider the reliability and expertise of any information source about COVID 19 (and everything else). Contrary to the belief of some, scientists for the most part know what they are talking about, have no agenda, try to convey information as accurately as possible, and adjust that information as often as new information warrants.
Things get murky when political leadership starts to interfere, which certainly could happen with COVID 19, as it may impact the election. (Worth remembering that Obama's ran as the candidate who had opposed the war in Iraq but the biggest issue facing his administration was the Great Recession. Bernie Sanders might be running on domestic economic and social issues but I could see a scenario where his administration would be focused on containing COVID 19--if it hasn't disappeared by then, like SARS.)
Maybe Trump’s Ministry Of Disinformation is writing the articles...
I fuking LOL'dQuote:
Originally Posted by Norseman