Avalanche Awareness...does anybody have any?

I think of it a a numbers game ... statistics ...

#cm of new snow,
#cm of storm total,
#cm of facets,
# amount of wind/wind slabs
# in temps, changes in temp of hours/days
# in time since new snow/old snow
# in elevation
# relating to aspect
# days since hoar frost developed
# size of hoar frost crystals
# days since each slope slid
# how many times each slope slides per season
# how big each slide is
# how to limit exposure time to each slope.

there are so many more but I play by numbers and this season is not one for going for big alpine lines ... yet ...

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Originally Posted by yeahman

Speaking for myself I quit skiing backcountry when I had kids. I miss it. Might go back when they're grown.

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I have kids. Meadow skipping / hippy turns are still pretty fun.

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Originally Posted by Shadam

I think of it a a numbers game ... statistics ...

#cm of new snow,
#cm of storm total,
#cm of facets,
# amount of wind/wind slabs
# in temps, changes in temp of hours/days
# in time since new snow/old snow
# in elevation
# relating to aspect
# days since hoar frost developed
# size of hoar frost crystals
# days since each slope slid
# how many times each slope slides per season
# how big each slide is
# how to limit exposure time to each slope.

there are so many more but I play by numbers and this season is not one for going for big alpine lines ... yet ...

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using your criteria I'll try and give the E/ Face of Red near Silverthorne a score

0 new
0 storm
100% DPS on faceted snow
0 HS activity this year
100% year / year SS, and WL sliding every year.
30+ days this year of hurricane force winds stripping snow from very prominent features and creating a grotesque wind feature that is probably 20 ft deep as it tapers from S to N the entire length of the upper bowl. I wouldnt mess with around anywhere near that top loaded area, and I'd be concerned about sympathetic activity in areas that are normally distinct... if for some reason that feature released it would crash down with enough force to make the yeti shit themselves, and that's probably what's going to happen at some point soon. If not on Red then somewhere else in or around the county. Still pretty nice looking snow along the hump. It's just a matter of skinning the 7 mi or so from meadow creek to get there. I don't have any desire to be in the willow creek drainage at this point. The big paths on the south side almost ran to the creek last year, and we all know which direction the winds benn blowing from this year. vibes and vorticies. The mountains win again.

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Originally Posted by TahoeJ

I have kids. Meadow skipping / hippy turns are still pretty fun.

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I stay off big lines now, too, as I have plenty of fun fresh forests around me here in JP. But I do miss the big stuff. And I have told my family I'll go back to riskier lines when the kids are older.

I have a lot of years experience with slides + patrol work + Level III. Patrol work and daily riding on fresh lines trump all certs, btw.

That said, I have a lot of friends out here who are fairly fresh to the game since the advent of modern tech and also as they're settling into financial stability at this point in their lives. They want to get after it on days I know it's clearly pushing it. They have no avi etiquette at all. "Why did you knock all the powder down?" (for real.)

They also generally ignore me as they think I'm just a pussy. They don't have any background but are strong enough to ride anything. Those are the hard ones to get through to. Simply naive... to the point I don't like to ride with them and worry when I know they are out there on a solo day without me watching their every move.

They're generally very smart people in life but lack the history to understand that all snow is different. To them it's either powdery or icy. And even then can't figure out the layer.

It's hard to look after your friends and not sound preachy. I usually have to explain the layer and how recent weather is changing the pack.

bad video too

Familiarity breeds contempt

I think what some people dont realize is that no matter who/where you are, if you go out day after day, season after season, youre gonna get slid on. youre gonna lose a partner, and/or you just might get caught yourself. the odds are not in your favor.

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Originally Posted by shredgnar

Graveline gulch near Copper? Or where?

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fremont 1.5

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Originally Posted by totaliboard

I think what some people dont realize is that no matter who/where you are, if you go out day after day, season after season, youre gonna get slid on. youre gonna lose a partner, and/or you just might get caught yourself. the odds are not in your favor.

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true statement

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Originally Posted by DasBlunt

It struck me amazing to hear Jeremy Jones say that 50% of the time, they turn away from a line. That is a whole hell a lot of times not riding the zone you set out for.

Most weekend warriors maybe do not have that "luxury".

Maybe that fact forces their hand of perceived scarcity.

Here in Colorado, one bad season and it seems the fever of powder addiction is high.

First world problems.

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Better to turn back as a weekend warrior and get to ski all the other weekends for all the other seasons that are yet to come.

avalanches and shark attacks
such small #ers of actual deaths
such large amount of hype
god bless the junkies

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Originally Posted by totaliboard

I think what some people dont realize is that no matter who/where you are, if you go out day after day, season after season, youre gonna get slid on. youre gonna lose a partner, and/or you just might get caught yourself. the odds are not in your favor.

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getting slid on is a rite of passage, man:eek::)

rog

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Originally Posted by TahoeJ

I have kids. Meadow skipping / hippy turns are still pretty fun.

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Yeah I know I could do it that way but just choose not to. Quit rock climbing too, something I did for 20 years--even easy routes don't appeal to me any more. I get my fix skiing on area and doing a little peak bagging these days, and it seems fulfilling.

But I'll add that my wife and I didn't have kids until I was almost 40, so I had two decades to get all the climbing and risk sports out of my system. If I'd had kids at 25 or 30 I might have made different decisions. Mentally I was just kind of done with that stuff by the time the kids came along.

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Originally Posted by yeahman

Yeah I know I could do it that way but just choose not to. Quit rock climbing too, something I did for 20 years--even easy routes don't appeal to me any more. I get my fix skiing on area and doing a little peak bagging these days, and it seems fulfilling.

But I'll add that my wife and I didn't have kids until I was almost 40, so I had two decades to get all the climbing and risk sports out of my system. If I'd had kids at 25 or 30 I might have made different decisions. Mentally I was just kind of done with that stuff by the time the kids came along.

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I hear all that^^^^^^^^. Happy to get out and play a coupla hours a day every day, but after living a life of pretty much zero responsibility and getting after it for well over 20 years till my early 40's, i'm happy and satisfied for more chill times with a new family. Don't even pine to travel anymore. Surf and mtb right from my door and ski when it's good, but i don't even like driving anymore.:)

rog

i look at it the opposite way
1. Kids want their parents to do what makes them happy. They MOST DEFINITELY do not want to be the reason their parents don't do what makes them happy.
2. I want my kids to grab everything they can from life. They don't learn that from watching their father consistently take the safer road.

Unless they're dead, then the kids aren't so happy.

Or broken and can't be daddy 100%

rog

something that helped me change my game/thinking and made meadow skipping mo fun was touring with wide fun-shaped skis. for touring in a maritime snowpack, the ease to doodle around and make turns on low angle wet/dense/deep snow, where i would normally be pushing my way downhill on 100mm camber/sidecut skis is pretty awesome. i know many argue the subject that these types of skis have enabled many more to enter high consequence avi terrain when it's not appropriate because of the snowpack, which i think has some validity, but i would argue that it's also enabled skiing fun to be had in the opposite type of terrain, too.

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Originally Posted by powdork

i look at it the opposite way
1. Kids want their parents to do what makes them happy. They MOST DEFINITELY do not want to be the reason their parents don't do what makes them happy.

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^^^ IMO, if this is going on for somebody and they are carrying that attitude about their children and their life(styles), then that person has some problems beyond the subject generally at hand in this thread.

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Originally Posted by Meadow Skipper

I blame the surge in AT gear.

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I blame the way ski media culture denigrates inbounds skiing, let alone skiing hardpack and bumps.

fuck dude if it weren't for the damn straightchuters book and my inability to
just say no
to a bunch of shop rats hell bent on booterin out to wolverine to ski the untracked steep n deep.
i'd prob be a zipperline consiour or at least be able to carve a turn:wink:
stead of turn earnin junkies
skiied the kesslers again 2 day
all junkies got a drug o choice
thought and talked about Alecs
fine young mag
like the zebra guys says
protect yourself at all times
packin your skis to ship
git sum

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Originally Posted by icelanticskier

Or broken and can't be daddy 100%

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Originally Posted by newbreak

Unless they're dead, then the kids aren't so happy.

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dad's can die of lots of things. heart attacks brought on by stress for instance.
with or without kids, i already don't want to die. the fact that i have kids doesn't really come into play when its decision time. the fact that i'm a pussy does.

One's Risk tolerance changes typically after kids, close calls or both. Sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes risk tolerance has nothing to do with it when you're dumb. Or ignorant. Or unaware of the consequences.

Whatever your RT, it's personal. Cool you get on it while having kids. That's your mojo. I personally don't like to push the margins of error. I'm content with the experience, not with the notches on my belt.

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Originally Posted by powdork

i look at it the opposite way
1. Kids want their parents to do what makes them happy. They MOST DEFINITELY do not want to be the reason their parents don't do what makes them happy.
2. I want my kids to grab everything they can from life. They don't learn that from watching their father consistently take the safer road.

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Those are valid points. Reminds me of an interview I read with Laird Hamilton where he said he wasn't going to quit big-wave surfing just because he had kids because surfing big waves was part of who he was and he didn't want his kids to not know the "real" him, nor did he want the kids to think they were responsible for him quitting doing what he loved. He thought that would be tragic.

That said, my kids still think I'm kind of a nut when it comes to skiing and elk hunting and a lot of the things I do passionately. And I've also come to realize that what I do in my free time doesn't mean a whole lot to them, they just want a dad who is kind and spends time with them. All the other stuff they really couldn't care less about, even though they are aware of it.

Funny thing happened the other day when my 10-year-old daughter, who's becoming quite a strong skier, said that when she grows up she "wants to be a serious skier like Daddy." I suppose my heart should have been bursting with pride, but the first thought that popped into my head was, please don't ruin your life like that. LOL

thought this would be a good read for this TR.

this weekends update from the longest running/oldest avalanche forecasting center in the country, if not north america.

kinda long but some good info:

http://www.mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/

rog

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Originally Posted by yeahman

Those are valid points. Reminds me of an interview I read with Laird Hamilton where he said he wasn't going to quit big-wave surfing just because he had kids because surfing big waves was part of who he was and he didn't want his kids to not know the "real" him, nor did he want the kids to think they were responsible for him quitting doing what he loved. He thought that would be tragic.

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imo, this is just an excuse for self justification (to others). i use it myself. i'd imagine that P.S Hoffman used it, too, to justify his lifestyle choices.

skied through a huge deposition zone today, my awareness was heightened.
b

trimmed down the read from above:

"People sometimes think that assessing avalanche conditions, ice climbing in avalanche terrain, or skiing mid winter in Tuckerman is crazy. Generally this assumption is held by people who might think Bart Simpson clapping loudly can trigger an avalanche. (personally, I love that scene in The Simpsons Movie). If avalanches were completely random events, then these activities would indeed be crazy. But we know that avalanches, like most everything else, aren’t random and play by a set of physical laws that govern our known universe. Als,o like anything else governed by physical laws of gravity, friction, and thermodynamics, the prediction and study of these events can get complicated. Fortunately, accurately predicting avalanches isn’t really possible and I remind myself of this whenever I travel in avalanche terrain. We can evaluate snow pack conditions, weather forecasts and terrain features and, a lot of the time, we can make pretty accurate generalizations about the likelihood of an avalanche. Guides, experienced climbers and skiers, and avalanche forecasters all do this to varying degrees. And it doesn’t take long playing this game to realize that no matter how carefully you study those conditions and learn about those physical laws that govern our universe, two possibilities will always exist. One is simple. You can make a mistake. The second is more insidious. You had incomplete information. Uncertainty is out there. This is why we hedge our bets. We wear seatbelts. Helmets. We carry beacons, shovels and probes. And we don’t travel in groups in steep terrain particularly on days with active wind loading and persistent weak layers buried in the snow.

The really maddening thing is that I can easily take chances with no adverse outcome. I can text while driving without incident hundreds of times without incident. Until one day I ram into some poor fool at a stoplight. If the only risk is to me, no big deal. It’s a free country right? But, let’s say for example, I join a small group of people riding in Tuckermans. If I ignore the wind loading and low probably/high consequence concerns of a deeper slab avalanche and I am by myself, fine. My mother would be upset, but hey it’s a free country. But, say I have folks in my group that are new to the terrain, have limited understanding of avalanches and their risk, and I am leading them, maybe even egging them on in subtle or not so subtle ways, I create two potential outcomes. One is that we climb up and ride down without incident. Great. We had a ride we can brag about. And we learned that poor travel techniques are ok and we can carry this habit out into the world and apply them to other terrain with other friends. Texting while driving is fine right, as long as you don’t hit anyone? The other outcome is more immediately dire. You trigger an avalanche and EVERYONE is caught, maybe buried, maybe killed.

Given that the physical laws governing avalanches are complicated and create degrees of uncertainty in our universe, most rational people try to reduce their exposure to risks, especially when it doesn’t cost us anything. Saving that text for later, or at the stoplight, are two ways with varying degrees of effectiveness to reduce our risk. Each have their own cost, in timeliness of the delivered message. The time cost (or any other cost) of travelling separately from safe zone to safe zone, approaching high consequence terrain from above, or avoiding the fall line of avalanches whenever possible is so minimal that it should be an easy choice. But frequently safer alternatives aren’t chosen and, for some, they may be unknown options.

I know I’m getting preachy….my apologies. On a brighter note, on our way over to South Gully from Right Gully we watched a party of two travel one at a time and then ski one at a time down the Chute. One “straight-lined” a narrow variation of main Chute. They did some digging on the way and reduced their exposure with their travel techniques and ultimately skied very bold lines in conditions with lingering uncertainty. A buried weak layer or two, some thinner trigger points and a sluff generated slab at the choke point which always carries a low probability/high consequence price tag were risks that they were probably aware of but that they handled effectively. Hats off to those of you doing your homework and handling these risks and enjoying the rewards of a well played journey through uncertainty.

On a more practical note…a look at the weekend weather. -Frank

rog

Sure, lots of people have avalanche awareness lots of the time. But all the people don't have avalanche awareness all the time.

In general, I prefer mostly meadow skipping or skiing the resort mid winter and waiting until an isothermal snowpack/corn cycle to get up on anything big. Getting on bigger stuff mid winter is just not worth the risk to me. I can wait until late April or May and safely ski just about anything I want.

All the stats point to greater avalanche awareness than in the past. It's a process.

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Originally Posted by cmor

All the stats point to greater avalanche awareness than in the past. It's a process.

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In last friday's Uinta Snowmobile fatality, all riders were carrying beacons, probes, and shovels. The beacon helped them find the body quicker. The guy left behind three kids and a wife. I feel very bad for them. Whatever process the guy was using, it didn't work.

getting awareness the hard way at crystal mt.
b

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Originally Posted by cmor

All the stats point to greater avalanche awareness than in the past. It's a process.

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what kind of process?

trial & error
b

Yea. Well, given the data available, and what we all (theoretically) know, trial and error seems like a rudimentary, if not unsustainable process.. at best.

pow fever and web spragging is everywhere. unlike 2 decades ago. more info is available, but so is pow for the masses with the fat boards, spoonfed beta, and the bag.

fatalities may only increase......

rog

It's been a long time since I've done any backcountry skiing--decades--but when I was learning the trade I was told that high angle BC skiing was something you did in the spring, after the resort season was over. In the winter you stuck to the trails in the forest. I think beacons existed but I didn't know anyone who had one.

not sure if this will reach the audience I'm hoping for, but I'm wondering if anybody has seen relevant weather events and numbers r/t Kicking Horse fatality
.
http://avalanche.state.co.us/caic/ac...=541&accfm=inv

Holy percolation and wet slides. Might be best to boot the closed resorts for a few weekends.

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Originally Posted by itsnowjoke

Avalanche Awareness...Does Anybody Have Any? Gee, what a loaded question.

The short answer is no, no one has any.

As much as we try to apply science, knowledge, experience, etc., traveling in the backcountry during winter is like playing russian roulette.

Sadly, we have a long list of professional avalanche forecasters and controllers who die every year in slides. If they can't stay out of harm's way, who can?

Then we have the crazy show of the clueless who at my local hill -Canyons- hike through the gate on high probability avalanche days and huck cornices, ski sketchy lines, and do everything we were taught NOT to do, and they walk away unscathed. No beacon, probe, shovel, or educated partner to boot. They are just plain dumb lucky.


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......surely true ;i have seen experienced riders take big risks ,when near their resort especially...Giving a Virgin slope ,a 'Test ' Jump to see if it will slide
Canyons gate is great example;alot of skiers from Mtns w no avalanche dangers, Visit there.Same w Park city,Hikin the BCC mellower lines on a danger day,you always see postholers from PC up there on the opposite and much more avalanche prone side.