Quantitative Risk Analysis of Riding in Avalanche Terrain

lets compare a # we don't actually know to some studies from the 1950's:rolleyes2
then lets make it extra extreme and ASSUME somethin like there are people centerpunching 10 slopes on high danger days with no clue
Throw in a survey of experts that didn't even include Roj some references to unofishial surveys over coffee
and ya get.......

reagan era scare tactics?
b

And I'll add my 1500 word essay:

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Aw fuck it

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Originally Posted by Jonathan S.

Mt Washington just doesn't offer many attractive wintertime options for me. With very rare and obscure exceptions, any skiable snow at or above treeline is wind-affected (regardless of whether we call it “powder”). Many different aspects are skiable, but even if they’re not in the lee of prevailing winds, then they’re typically cross-loaded.

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a majority of the only real alpine/above treeline/avy terrain in the east where you teach courses (inside and away from avy terrain) and you find it an unattractive wintertime option? weird.

you would have to spend more time up there (in winter) to seek out where the good skiing is on any given day. if you understand the weather, the wind, the precip, and how it all works together up there, you might find it's absolutely delightful. but you never truly know if you don't go. good snow is pretty much always there unless it rains then freezes with no new snow to follow. you ski a bunch in the pnw. truly you must have to deal with frozen up high to score good corn in the middle and mank down lower or for the exit at least. more often then not you can ski good snow on George from t2b in winter on the lee side of the hill. good edgeable quiet chalky snow much of the time with beautiful powder snow more often than you would think at any and all elevations depending on the day.

but i'm sure you would rather skin and lap wachusett or Berkshire east than play around in the range with the best most western like terrain in the east and practice what you preach in and around avy terrain in winter. and of course there's nothing wrong with that. you have a beautiful family, you want to make sure you make it home for yer daughters bed time, and you are an super awesome guy.

we can all read till we're blue in the face about avalanches, avalanche safety, the latest greatest gadgets, techniques, take courses, and stare at spreadsheets, BUT if yer not spending time in and around avy terrain when conditions are dynamic, you have no perspective on the matter, imo.

rog

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Originally Posted by icelanticskier

Mindless jabbering...
we can all read till we're blue in the face about avalanches(more jabbering), BUT if yer not spending time in and around avy terrain when conditions are dynamic, you have no perspective on the matter, imo.
roje

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Maybe you can get with the quarter lapping bobble head, roje and take johny into the high country for a show and tell of how it's done. I mean...play the "sunny bowl-days after a storm" vid just prior so he's good and scared.:fm:

and maybe you can come along, bob, and pick up a few pointers on how to link turns smoothly without looking like you have a tree branch shoved up yer ass:fm:

ugh the image of you skiing:fm:

rog

Wull...uh...I'm not sure what linking turns has do to with quantitative risk analysis but...I make no claims :the_finge on internet avalanche expertise, either.
Last avalanche class I took was in the mid eighties. They didn't teach um on the internet, then.

These sorts of analyses almost never pan out because neither risk, nor risk acceptance, are static. Even if you had good statistics on backcountry skiers and ski days, it would be next-to-impossible to know how much risk they actually assumed. The fact is that centre-punching can be much safer than "playing it safe" if you're centre-punching well-settled snow compared to "playing it safe" when size 3 slides are running to valley bottom. Anyway, this shouldn't be construed as criticism of the analysis, but it's important to realise that you can patch holes in data only to a certain extent. Anything beyond that constitutes rank speculation, and should be disclaimed as such.

A good first step to getting real data would be to study a group of randomlyselected backcountry skiers for a few seasons. That might point in the direction of some real numbers.


Sent from my Paranoid Android using TGR forums.

I aint no expert but if your gonna attempt to compare apples to oranges 50 year old fruit aint gonna look, taste or feel anything like this years crop
didn't anybody stand up and point this out
or are they all in such awe of each others expertness that obvious glaring flaws in data are just accepted
I still got the # of peeps center punchin 10 slopes with no form of avvy awareness and prevention at 0
which is probably the same # of people who paid for and showed up for an avvy cert class and
didn't pass.
my surveys of turn earning skibums over doobies conforms this data

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Originally Posted by wra

Wull...uh...I'm not sure what linking turns has do to with quantitative risk analysis but...I make no claims :the_finge on internet avalanche expertise, either.

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still ugly. and still bitter after the avy club cut yer obz funding for being an angry ole curmudgeon a-hole some dozen years ago.:the_finge

howz that shoulder, btw:wink:

rog

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Originally Posted by icelanticskier

than play around in the range with the best most western like terrain in the east
rog

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ROJDREAMSTHELIVE

speaking of ugly^^^^^^^

rog

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Originally Posted by icelanticskier

actually I did know it so well as right before skiing into the line I advised my partner to get his camera out in case the thing went.

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"Hey bro, ima bout to drop in this sketch line! Its prolly gonna slide. Make sure you're ready with the shutter!! It's gonna be rad!"

I don't talk like that. I do however enjoy the site and sounds of snow moving down mountain sides. watching the dust cloud rise into the sky. had he caught it on film it woulda been something to see. a coupla guys I know were skiing one drainage over when the slide occurred. they were amazed at the site of it. when we skied through the woods over to where the two guys were skiing, they were glad that I didn't die cuz doing some digging wasn't part of their tour plan for the day.:)

rog

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Originally Posted by icelanticskier

more often then not you can ski good snow on George from t2b in winter on the lee side of the hill. good edgeable quiet chalky snow much of the time with beautiful powder snow more often than you would think at any and all elevations depending on the day.

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This from the guy that spent his winter surfing 2' waves off the coast of Maine.

How many days "up high" Rog? Bet you can count em' on one hand.

Uh oh, I missed out on more discussion of backcountry skiing because I was out . . . backcountry skiing:
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/s...21#post4028721

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Originally Posted by icelanticskier

a majority of the only real alpine/above treeline/avy terrain in the east where you teach courses (inside and away from avy terrain) and you find it an unattractive wintertime option? weird.

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No, not weird, but perfectly consistent.

First of all, I do not spend *any* course time indoors in winter during daylight hours.
Any avy course time during the winter daylight hours (pretty much all of which I use up each day) is spent ski touring (plus some rescue scenarios).
And my students get to see more avy terrain (not *away* from it as you describe it) than from any other Level 1 providers on Mt Washington.
(This is admittedly in large part b/c my course delivery model presents some problems for any commercial course provider who aims to attain any sort of reasonable and financially viable student volume. But I was very pleased to see EMS often getting up to Jacob's Ladder on Day 2 this year. Plus Jesse Williams was advertising a Daks kind of "L1+" that looked to have far more field time.)

But getting to the main point, yes, that's right, I use Mt Washington to teach avy courses in the winter, but I don't really care to ski much there in the winter.
My total winter avy terrain tally this year was 7 in our Presidentials (out of 18 total for the season) plus 5 in three other states (out of 12 total, across the winter, spring, and summer), which coincidentally represent the three more "traditional" avy climates besides our weird arctic maritime.
Of my 513,000' earned vertical for turns, yes, some very high % was ski area skinning or below-treeline backcountry in terrain that doesn't even have a treeline.
Sure, the Presidentials Range has plenty of high-quality turns much of the time at or above treeline. But I suspect the safety margin is much smaller for many of those supposedly safe tours than is supposed by the ski tourers. I have no desire to take that kind of risk, and the options for lower-risk routes just aren't really there, because of the combination of topography and weather.
In more detail:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B6QM...it?usp=sharing

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Originally Posted by Jonathan S.

And my students get to see more avy terrain

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seeing is different than being in. if there aren't the 4 ingredients present for the risk of avalanches, you aren't in avalanche terrain. you said it yerself, you have no desire to take that kind of risk.

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(not *away* from it as you describe it) than from any other Level 1 providers on Mt Washington.

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not true. MC brings his students all over the mountain, even in burly conditions in and around avy terrain.

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Sure, the Presidentials Range has plenty of high-quality turns much of the time at or above treeline. But I suspect the safety margin is much smaller for many of those supposedly safe tours than is supposed by the ski tourers. I have no desire to take that kind of risk, and the options for lower-risk routes just aren't really there, because of the combination of topography and weather.

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the risk up there is what you make of it. tons of options for low risk routes given the topography and weather. your 4 hour drive to the mountain is much more risky than most any day up high in AVY terrain so long as you can manage the terrain for the conditions at hand.

rog

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Originally Posted by icelanticskier

seeing is different than being in. if there aren't the 4 ingredients present for the risk of avalanches, you aren't in avalanche terrain.

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Leading students in, through, and around avy terrain is exactly the kind of routefinding and decisionmaking that needs to be taught in avy courses, and that’s exactly what I’ve been able to do. (And admittedly, largely because I’m free from financial viable constraints, and have therefore been able to set up various requirements that limit the potential student pool to almost nothing, i.e., take an early March avy course by completing extensive reading, writing, and other assignments in . . . October. But I would like to see commercial providers offer a kind of two-tiered approach, which seems like what Jesse Williams was essentially trying to do with his L1+.)

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Originally Posted by icelanticskier

MC brings his students all over the mountain, even in burly conditions in and around avy terrain.

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We’ve been through this before. As much as we both respect MC, if you think that a L1 course for a random unconnected group of students (as opposed to, say, a course for an outing club or other group where the students already know each other) is typically doing anything other than just poking around at the base of one or two ravines during an entire three-day course, then you just don’t know what an avy instructor is up against out here. (And your incredulity at the trip report from a TGR poster this season – although certainly well merited – definitely revealed that. Consider yourself fortunate not to have to deal with all that. Kind of reminds me when as an NCAA alpine race coach I walked into all these PSIA clinics and one of their examiners had to give me a reality check of what a typical ski instructor typically encounters.)

Even out West, the debriefing for an AIARE L2 fatality was shocking, i.e., you can vet all you want yet a total b.s. skier might ruin it for everyone (or merely just himself in that particular case).

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Originally Posted by icelanticskier

the risk up there is what you make of it.

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Agreed. And you have certainly demonstrated both extremes re before/after.

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Originally Posted by icelanticskier

your 4 hour drive to the mountain is much more risky than most any day up high in AVY terrain so long as you can manage the terrain for the conditions at hand.

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Three hours to my favorite trailhead there.
But agreed on the driving risk (whether to there or anywhere else in New England in winter conditions).
Yet also entirely irrelevant to the risk to be taken once safely arrived at the trailhead.

right on. well I hope we get to ski together for at least one lap this winter/spring:)

rog

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Originally Posted by Jonathan S.

Uh oh, I missed out on more discussion of backcountry skiing because I was out . . . backcountry skiing:

Of my 513,000' earned vertical for turns,

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nobody cares that you count your vert bro
nobody is really "stuck" in east
it's a conscience decision to live where the skiing is meh to middlin.
Do you know anyone who ever failed an avvy class?
ps nobody cares you used to coach either,
but feel free to remind us every other post:rolleyes2

yer right, nobody is "stuck" here. some of us prefer living here, or we would live elsewhere. I've never had ANYTHING holding me back. as you know I sampled the satch where you transplanted yerself to, what, almost 14 years back? (disturbing that you still kinda suck at skiing the pow after all those years, wasted), and you know what? ya sure the skiing was nice, but I would NEVER wanna reside there. skiing meh to middlin? have you ever even pivot skidded yer way around out here? ever been here?

I say let yer skiing do the talking 1st, bro. a bunch of shit is all it is.

rog

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Originally Posted by icelanticskier

I've never had ANYTHING holding me back. have you ever even pivot skidded yer way around out here? ever been here?


rog

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tell us more about your avvy expertise you gleened in your month in canada before mummy quit sendin livin the dream checks.
I think pinner nailed the arrie cert in this post.

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Originally Posted by Pinner

Maybe I'm playing semantics, but I've got to insert this here because it's important that we all speak the same language and understand what we think we know about avy education.

You didn't "get" and you don't "have" your Level 1 or Level 2. No one does. You might have completed a Level 1 or Level 2 course. And I congratulate you for it.

There is no such thing as a Level 1 or Level 2 "cert." The certificate you were given by your course provider certifies that you showed up each morning and probably hung around on the last day long enough to trade phone numbers. You could have slept though the entire course for all we know (which, no doubt, at least a few people have.)

There's a reason for this: the only AIARE course with a written and practical exam is Level 3, which is a professional level course requiring a solid base of experience and a serious commitment to the craft. "The Level 3 course is an advanced certification course for experienced and professional avalanche practitioners, professional guides, patrollers and advanced recreational backcountry travelers." Show that you're competent (ie: run with the big dogs) and you'll be recognized for it with a L3 cert.

Others are far better qualified to speak to this, but as I understand it, the AIARE curriculum has evolved over the last couple years to put a greater emphasis on terrain identification at L1, leaving the snow science to L2. The course titles reflect this:

AIARE Level 1: Decision Making In Avalanche Terrain

AIARE Level 2: Analyzing Snow Stability And Avalanche Hazard

AIARE Level 3: Advanced Avalanche Training For Professionals And Recreational Leaders


I've spent a fair bit of time learning about the course progression from the AIARE directors and consulted with them closely as we tweaked the FOBP curriculum into a solid, foundational awareness class-- a "pre level 1" if you will. It's been an eye-opening and humbling process.

Take it for what it's worth, but I strongly believe it's important that we all use the same vocabulary, base our assumptions about someone's level of training on the same criteria, and most significantly, acknowledge that as much as you think you know, there's a guy not far away who knows a LOT more than you. Nine times out of ten, they're quieter than you are. (interesting to note: I've never met anyone who told me they had a L3 without me asking.)

This is why we feel it is so important to be an apprentice and a mentor throughout your entire career as a backcountry skier. Personally, the older I get, the more friends I lose to the mountains, the humbler I become and the more I realize that I still have a shitload to learn.

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don't know anybody out west that would waste time goin farther east than brolorado to ski
so hows come your bro didn't get the roj vrs the white wave of death shots
did he leave his camera in his pack to yo yo 1/4 laps with a shovel and probe.
if you go light you can get 5 1/4 laps
thats even more vert than 1 full lap
bobblehead avi logic 101 bro

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Originally Posted by skifishbum

tell us more about your avvy expertise you gleened in your month in canada before mummy quit sendin livin the dream checks.

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been livin completely on my own dime since I left high school. no mummy checks. anything else you wanna make up, beater?

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don't know anybody out west that would waste time goin farther east than brolorado to ski

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then stfu

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so hows come your bro didn't get the roj vrs the white wave of death shots

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he was cold

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did he leave his camera in his pack to yo yo 1/4 laps with a shovel and probe.
if you go light you can get 5 1/4 laps
thats even more vert than 1 full lap
bobblehead avi logic 101 bro

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poor form to make digs at one of the most generous, thoughtful, and approachable avy educators/forecasters in Utah. not surprising tho coming from you. you are poor form.

rog

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Originally Posted by skifishbum

nobody cares that you count your vert bro
nobody is really "stuck" in east
it's a conscience decision to live where the skiing is meh to middlin.
Do you know anyone who ever failed an avvy class?
ps nobody cares you used to coach either,
but feel free to remind us every other post:rolleyes2

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Usually I don't even read your posts, let alone respond to them, but since you took the time and care in this one post to use hard returns, and even some punctuation and capitalization, here goes:

1. I know you don't care how much vertical I record each season, but some of my backcountry buddies are into that. Plus I wanted to make the point that my winter touring on Mt Washington amounts to a very small percentage of all earned turns throughout my ski season, and I think the quantitative illustration of that is helpful.

2. Yes, except for a friend who had child custody issues, I don't know any skier who is truly "stuck" in the East in the sense of having no choice in it whatsoever. But for a signature block, I think it is a reasonable way of conveying the feeling many of us have here regarding are admittedly typical "meh to middlin" skiing that we put up with because of other reasons we choice to live here. (Notable exceptions to the typical "meh to middlin" skiing: the excellent untracked powder you can ski if you know where to go and have a flexible work schedule to get after it immediately before it quickly gets tracked up or crusted over; the Presidentials in good weather, especially later in the winter or early in the spring; numerous venues for rando race training, if you're into that; xc skate skiing, if you're into that.)

3. Yes, I do know people who have failed avy classes. Specifically, when I reviewed NSP avy course data (for another purpose entirely), I did see some "Fail" marks. And I have assigned some "Incomplete" marks to students that were essentially You're Going to Fail So Drop Out Now. Also, for L3 courses with certification exams, yes, the pass rate is not 100%.

4. I think the coaching reference was a useful analogy in my exchange with Roger. Intro-level avy courses (i.e., typically Level 1) are often very limited in the extent of touring possibilities because they have to cater to the lowest common denominator in terms of fitness + ability + gear of whoever shows up. Ditto for PSIA instruction. Contrast that with Roger's experiences with his touring partners and my experiences with ski racers, respectively.

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Originally Posted by skifishbum

nobody cares that you count your vert bro
nobody is really "stuck" in east
it's a conscience decision to live where the skiing is meh to middlin.
Do you know anyone who ever failed an avvy class?
ps nobody cares you used to coach either,
but feel free to remind us every other post:rolleyes2

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I will second that this is very poor form - last dude you should be calling out in an avy thread

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Originally Posted by Jonathan S.

Usually I don't even read your posts, let alone respond to them, but since you took the time and care in this one post to use hard returns, and even some punctuation and capitalization, here goes:

1. I know you don't care how much vertical I record each season, but some of my backcountry buddies are into that. Plus I wanted to make the point that my winter touring on Mt Washington amounts to a very small percentage of all earned turns throughout my ski season, and I think the quantitative illustration of that is helpful.

2. Yes, except for a friend who had child custody issues, I don't know any skier who is truly "stuck" in the East in the sense of having no choice in it whatsoever. But for a signature block, I think it is a reasonable way of conveying the feeling many of us have here regarding are admittedly typical "meh to middlin" skiing that we put up with because of other reasons we choice to live here. (Notable exceptions to the typical "meh to middlin" skiing: the excellent untracked powder you can ski if you know where to go and have a flexible work schedule to get after it immediately before it quickly gets tracked up or crusted over; the Presidentials in good weather, especially later in the winter or early in the spring; numerous venues for rando race training, if you're into that; xc skate skiing, if you're into that.)

3. Yes, I do know people who have failed avy classes. Specifically, when I reviewed NSP avy course data (for another purpose entirely), I did see some "Fail" marks. And I have assigned some "Incomplete" marks to students that were essentially You're Going to Fail So Drop Out Now. Also, for L3 courses with certification exams, yes, the pass rate is not 100%.

4. I think the coaching reference was a useful analogy in my exchange with Roger. Intro-level avy courses (i.e., typically Level 1) are often very limited in the extent of touring possibilities because they have to cater to the lowest common denominator in terms of fitness + ability + gear of whoever shows up. Ditto for PSIA instruction. Contrast that with Roger's experiences with his touring partners and my experiences with ski racers, respectively.

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Well said JS and even the more confused here might understand

Liked the earlier car/driving analogy as related to stability and decision making.

i don't understand.
b

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Originally Posted by flowing alpy

i don't understand.
b

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it's ok b-man. so long as you make it home every day from your daily adventures, you know all that you need to know.:)

quite the TR, eh? fucking classic entertainment, as always. heh.:biggrin:

rog

I learned years ago not to come to TGR for the ski debate/discussions. It's like beating your head against a wall.



the porn is pretty good tho

^^^^^smart man.

i figured between working 4-8 hours a day, surfing 2-5 hours a day, along with life i'd have no extra time for fucking around on here. man was i wrong:D

you get out this week? been good all week.

rog

maybe tomorrow, hows it looking?

Wed seemed like it piddled out so I cancelled, only to read about your exploits in the 'goods' thread:cussing:

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Originally Posted by My Pet Powder Goat

maybe tomorrow, hows it looking?

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i'll be on it from 5-7am, or before the wind gets uncooperative.

then: http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/kennebunk-maine

fun surf right through the week. wind/tide/aspect depending. won't even need the longboard. always a bonus.

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Wed seemed like it piddled out so I cancelled, only to read about your exploits in the 'goods' thread:cussing:

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wednesday (in maine, 1/2 size in nh, usually the case) was insane at ogt. as you read. thursday was waist/chest meh but got some fun ones. yesterday am was about as fun as wednesday, easily. sleeper day fer sure. this morning...........yeah fkna good. holy moly.

so get yer ass down here already. don't know if tomorrow will be worth yer drive, but.........

rog

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Originally Posted by My Pet Powder Goat

I learned years ago not to come. It's like beating your head against a wall.



the porn is pretty good tho

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used to be better imo
b

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Originally Posted by flowing alpy

used to be better imo
b

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Well when u put it that way...
;-)