NOAA 2005-2006 Winter Outlook

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10-12-2005, 03:00 PM
extreeski

As we get closer to winter the predictions will be more accurate.

We better have a good season up here in the pnw or they'll have to up my meds.... Or I will do it for them. Medical Marijuana that is.
10-12-2005, 03:05 PM
shmerham

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raps

I like the sound of nor-easters......looks like the east should get a good winter according to what they are sayin......i'm not gonna argue with that. It's been raining for like 10 days straight out here so hopefully by november and december it will be pukin snow.

*sigh* Raps, so young and naive ;)

We only get so much precipitation a year. Since we've gotten so much now, we're in for a dry and bitterly cold winter.
10-12-2005, 03:10 PM
jonesy

Baker will get a new hourly record. :)
10-12-2005, 03:42 PM
Buster Highmen

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonesy

Baker will get a new hourly record. :)

In snow, not water.
10-12-2005, 03:46 PM
subtle plague

long range forecasts. :rolleyes2

btw. it is really really easy to forecast a slightly warm or a warm winter because in 80-90% of the cases you will be right thanks to global warming. goooood forecast.

ot part:
there are certain long term rules for europe. especially concerning october. but all these rules were made without climatic change and i don't know any concerning the US.
what is interesting concerning europe is the complete breakdown of the circulation over the atlantic right now and in the next days/week. that might me interesting for europe if it tends to persist.
10-12-2005, 04:06 PM
irul&ublo

Quote:

Originally Posted by subtle plague

what is interesting concerning europe is the complete breakdown of the circulation over the atlantic right now and in the next days/week. that might me interesting for europe if it tends to persist.

Blame the French.
10-12-2005, 04:34 PM
mrryde

I would like to understand how accuweather conceives its snowfall estimates for all these cities.
10-12-2005, 04:50 PM
bdog

Quote:

Originally Posted by extreeski

As we get closer to winter the predictions will be more accurate.

We better have a good season up here in the pnw or they'll have to up my meds.... Or I will do it for them. Medical Marijuana that is.

Yep, by May the predictions for this winter will be 100% accurate! :wink: Remember, a "Normal" winter in the PNW is pretty damn good and a hell of a lot better than last season.
10-12-2005, 05:00 PM
Red Baron

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrryde

I would like to understand how accuweather conceives its snowfall estimates for all these cities.

The best way to do a long range forecast for winter is to look back in history at years with a similar pattern to what we are experiencing now, and try to draw as many parallels as you can.

I like to look at similar cycles, for instance we are coming out of 3 weak El Nino years and right now the El Nino pattern is neutral...so looking back at history to see what happened in this situation is a great example. There are 5 similar cycles in the last 100 years so thats good guidance. I am working on a specific winter forecast for Utah and will get the results together soon. It's a time-consuming process...

The early results are *very* different than what the maps posted in this thread from the Climate Prediction Center are coming up with.

V-e-r-y different...

(and yes, by May I'll have the winter forecast nailed.)
10-12-2005, 05:08 PM
mrryde

Thats cool RB, I'm looking forward to it
10-12-2005, 05:08 PM
Blurred

They just updated it!
Looks good for the crew this year!

http://www.soulskier.com/bonercity.jpg
10-12-2005, 05:10 PM
stump832

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Baron

V-e-r-y different...

That was a quick edit. ;)
10-12-2005, 05:15 PM
Red Baron

Quote:

Originally Posted by stump832

That was a quick edit. ;)

I thought about what I said turning up in internet searches and decided it wasn't very professional....and didn't really need to be said... :nonono2:
10-12-2005, 05:17 PM
stump832

What, you mean you have a public reputation to protect or something? You need a sweeter alias. When can we start signing up for your service?
10-12-2005, 05:21 PM
Dirty Hoar

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Baron

The best way to do a long range forecast for winter is to look back in history at years with a similar pattern to what we are experiencing now, and try to draw as many parallels as you can.

I like to look at similar cycles, for instance we are coming out of 3 weak El Nino years and right now the El Nino pattern is neutral...so looking back at history to see what happened in this situation is a great example. There are 5 similar cycles in the last 100 years so thats good guidance. I am working on a specific winter forecast for Utah and will get the results together soon. It's a time-consuming process...

The early results are *very* different than what the maps posted in this thread from the Climate Prediction Center are coming up with.

V-e-r-y different...

(and yes, by May I'll have the winter forecast nailed.)

RB, Do you take into consideration certain sacrifices to the snow gods when calculating this forcast?
10-12-2005, 05:25 PM
Red Baron

Quote:

Originally Posted by flabango

RB, Do you take into consideration certain sacrifices to the snow gods when calculating this forcast?

No, but did you see this?
10-12-2005, 05:48 PM
Dirty Hoar

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Baron

No, but did you see this?

Jeez... I thought it was going to be POV footage of you chasing [edit] hot inturn around the station in your birthday suit.

Not bad for $70. I have an Archos420 that records a pretty decent picture, but it's pricey.

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