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Flip side is 80% of cases are mild or asymptomatic so the total # of infections is under-reported, ie less deadly than it looks.Quote:
Originally Posted by iceman
Reality is anything that progresses as far as Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome has a good chance of taking someone down.
Infection rate often does not equal Disease rate.
by "interesting" I meant, "fucked up", my bad I thought that was obvious.
105 US dead kids from flu.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/21/healt...105/index.html
I see. So we wait until the problem is too big to tackle, and then fail to tackle it because it's too late to do anythingQuote:
Originally Posted by old goat
My take from the SARS lesson (and Ebola) is we (the world) took aggressive action and successfully limited spread of these diseases.
I see advantage in taking action now to limit spread so fewer of those non-compliant individuals have the opportunity to be selfish (i.e. they never get infected). It also protects my own freedom do go as I please.Quote:
Originally Posted by old goat
A 1% hit to the world's economy is $800B. Spending a tiny fraction of $800B in an attempt to avoid this hit seems wise. Covid-19 is currently a very small problem, though it has promising future growth.
Denial is a valid response. I was there a couple weeks ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by old goat
I wouldn't say I'm panicked. There's 2 cases in my county, and who knows how many self-quarantines. I've made no changes. Continue to appear in public and attend social events. Hoarded nothing. Dissed no Chinese (unsure how that could help, seems counterproductive at best). I have increased handwashing frequency, mainly to develop the habit for the future.
You're a doctor, right? I'm ashamed to admit I'm not even a dentist (though I've shown some promise in math and logical reasoning, I am an easily deceived human). Do you have some insight I'm missing? Is there reason to believe this is just another flu, not really more dangerous than the others?
Aye. SorryQuote:
Originally Posted by iceman
We should have killed 5,000 or so people with our cars so far in 2020 as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
The Jan stat from CDC is that a mere 19% of pediatric flu patients who died were vaccinated against the flu.Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
The vaccine works well this year. Vax your kiddo. Vax yourself.
Regarding the mask and ppe shortage and resulting glut when the disease stops, WHO / CDC should place massive orders then stockpile the rest for the next outbreak. What is the expiration date on those things? I’d think it is decades before they’re no longer effective. Good use of public funds if you ask me.
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Some things have expiration dates. Unfortunately N95s do have expiration dates. All sorts of shit has expiration dates that really really don't need them. But the FDA and the Joint Commission looooooove expiration dates when they matter and when they don't.Quote:
Originally Posted by neufox47
Really the only thing that goes bad on a N95 sitting around is POTENTIALLY the elastic straps might lose elasticity.
But we keep boxes of expired N95s around in a cache. And when the state saw the supply issues they asked every hospital and agency to report out on the number of unexpired AND EXPIRED PPE ;)
Gowns, goggles, booties, caps, gloves and PAPR supplies (except batteries) don't seem to have expiration dates.
There are caches... not enough for an airborne pandemic.
"Each year, more than 1,600 children younger than 15 die in traffic accidents."Quote:
Originally Posted by LongShortLong
So approx. 228 so far this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by neufox47
Agree that protective gear needs to be ordered and cached, but asking private companies to gear up to produce massive quantities and then shut off again will insure that a lot of those companies go out of business. In the article about Ameritech I posted the owner says he's been trying to get the govt to cache protective gear for years. Right now the US gets about 20% of its masks from US manufacturers. Could easily to to zero, with consequences potentially as severe as relying on foreign sources for any critical product (rare earths for example). It's not like WWII where you can go from making tanks to making cars and the workers can go back to being housewives. These caches should be built up steadily over time, which won't help now. Maybe someone could figure out how to get the mints to start making masks instead of money, or diaper factories, or book presses--go to cloth diapers and read on line. Or put straps on some of Trump's and Bloomberg's and Bezos' money.Quote:
Originally Posted by Summit
No reason non sterile paper products should outdate, except for the elastic like neufox said.
Meanwhile--another cost of the all out war on covid 19--people who can't get care for other conditions.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...c09_story.html
We have less than 1 million staffed hospital beds in the USA for 330 million people.
Occupancy rates are about 65% averaged over a year.
Maybe with FEMA/DMAT/and state/local ESF8 we can surge to 1 million beds.
45 years ago we had 1.5 million beds for 215 million people.
Some points to consider:
- Masks are often or even mostly ineffective because the virus droplets are microscopic, which requires a tight fit, and even then eyes are also an entry point
- Experts say hand washing using proper technique especially in airports and other public spaces is much more effective. Even better would be hand washing stations outside of nasty public restrooms. Try not to touch your face. Also be careful with your phone which can be a petri dish of its own
- As with the flu, car accidents, drunk driving, violence, and so many other things death isn't the only metric. There are many other costs and other types of harm. One of the big emerging concerns with COVID-19 is that people with severe cases who survive can still end up with damaged lungs
- Even if COVID-19 ends up roughly equivalent to the flu, do we really want to experience an annual flu season AND an annual SARS season?
- Unlike the flu, there's currently no vaccine or long term immunity for rhinoviruses and coronaviruses
^speaking of airports
High velocity hand dryers... these seem like the worst idea ever because people suck at hand hygiene and it will aerosolize like crazy.
Attachment 316869
I wonder if the air blade that is part of the faucet is different
Noah would be proud.
My dad is a physician (pediatrician who spent most of his career in the ER) and is involved in the national community based disaster preparedness programs. He is generally pretty cavalier about stuff like this. He’s started to get a little concerned about it and just texted me that I might consider vitamin D’ing up and getting some masks handy before they aren’t available anymore. I recognize all of that is fairly low information, but it’s all so uncharacteristic for him it has me a little spooked. Considering canceling travel plans in a couple weeks....
There's a case in Sacramento County. Time to ban people from the valley from coming up here, also people driving through the valley.
I know we hate them and all but the Iran thing has me particularly concerned. With 5 dead days after they first announced any infections, it looks like it's already well into much of the population, which means probably much of the mideast as well, although I don't know how far south there is a flu season. I would assume we will start seeing it in India in large numbers soon too.
Not sure if it's been posted since I just got here but this always has the best and latest info I can find
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
This is the best one I've seen: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6Quote:
Originally Posted by powdork
I just bought some N95 masks that are the 3M brand. Found them at ACE Hardware and they had quite a few. They even had a hardcore mask like for cooking meth, but I didn't pull the trigger on that one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mustonen
Fuck it, might as well have them. Only $20 and got 4 of them.
I'm a prepper now I guess.
Guy at the counter was like, "Are you going on a flight?" and said he's seen a lot of people buying them who are flying.
My cousin and his wife (doctor and nurse) just flew to Hawaii and said they were going to rock a mask through the airport/flight......
You need masks and eye protection.
Not a bad idea to have masks around virus or not, for stuff like making sawdust. I've never used masks for woodworking but a lot of the younger woodworkers I see do and I think it's a good idea. So the money spent won't be wasted. Also, around here, hantavirus is endemic. Should wear a mask when I go under the house. Maybe I'll pick up a few.
If you’re cutting 2x4’s and whole wood not that big of deal in my mind.
I’m more concerned about MDO, basically blasting a bunch of particulate glue in the air. If is prsssure treated I think it’s still arsenic right? Maybe not anymore but some chemical either way.
Everyone at once: "I should buy a buncha N95s that I'm not fit tested for and don't know how to don/doff properly for infectious agents making it at best a really expensive surgical mask."
Hospital/EMS/Industrial: "Resupply order denied due to no stock? WTF?"
-----------------------ALSO---------------------------
CCP Central Committee: "Local party bosses whose districts do not have decreasing infections will be... removed."
CCDC: "Looks like new infection reports have dropped precipitously."
Well, it's now in Italy. Venice Carnival cancelled. Some villages in the Veneto sealed off. Fuck, a friend of mine is a week away from a Sella Ronda trip through Verona.
Meanwhile I’m in Rome...
My wallet is 1K lighter, I'm not in singapore and i feel fine
Valley of the Heart's Delight down to only one wuflu case. Other one recovered.
Markets have the wuflu
OFFS that's from 8 FebQuote:
Originally Posted by splat
Scary, but should I stop eating Chinese takeout?
Yes, and no moreQuote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
Korean BBQ
Lamb Kebabs
Pizza, pasta
Okay, rice and beans it is then! And vodka. I hear vodka kills the coronavirus.
People in the Ukraine were drinking vodka after Chernobyl as a cure for radiation. True story. Although, in a lot of cases, that just meant pouring another one.
I thought this was interesting - one of my coworkers has a good friend that has been working in China for the last year. Back in early December, he and his sons were touring around remote parts of Vietnam and and learned they had closed their borders to the Chinese. Said they had military posted and wouldn't let anyone in. They then went to the Philippines before Christmas to tour around. If they had been coming from China, not Vietnam, they wouldn't have been let in the country. When he was about to return to China, the school told him to just come back to the US and work remotely, they were sending everyone home and closing everything down.
South Korea is not messing around. Their CDC has performed 33,000 tests +600/hr to find and isolate 800 people in their all-out, concerted response to the outbreak. In the US, however, only 4 of around 100 public health labs have working test kits after the CDC recalled initial kits due to failure.