Where to Invest Money Right Now?

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Originally Posted by rod9301

Buying when stocks are below fair value is not timing the market.

Buying stocks when they are expensive will not provide good returns.



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In theory--ie an efficient market with rational actors--stocks are always at or very close to their true vaue--whatever that is. And for the most part it's true, although from time to time irrationality takes over--see Bitcoin. The wisdom of crowds. So knowing that a stock is truly undervalued implies some private source of information and buying before everyone else figures it out. Which is illegal, unless you're in Congress. Which is why fund managers, supposedly experts in the field unlike you and I, cannot consistenly do better than index funds over time.

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Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong

How is that not timing the market? What’s your definition of timing the market if it’s not that?

Of course buying something that undervalued and selling something overvalued is a good strategy. The problem is that basically no one can achieve that consistently in practice.

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Well, here's my definition.
Timing the market means trying to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. Which, in my mind is unknowable.

On the other hand, you know when a stock is below fair value, however you define this, and when is so far above fair value that future returns will be low.

This means that when a stock is above fair value it may go up a lot higher, but it doesn't matter, you're not trying to maximize profits, your trying to make a reasonable profit.

Graham described this very well in his book, written 100 years ago.

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Rod is absolutely right, timing the market is a very different thing than timing a particular stock. And there absolutely are people who make money doing this. Doing it on an individual level is also not the same as doing it on an institutional level.

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Originally Posted by Danno

Rod is absolutely right, timing the market is a very different thing than timing a particular stock. And there absolutely are people who make money doing this. Doing it on an individual level is also not the same as doing it on an institutional level.

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Yes, sorry, didn’t realize we were talking about undervalued stocks vs market as a whole.

I’d suggest that there is a shit tonne of research over the past century showing how fraught that endeavor is as well. Vanguard exists for a reason.

Remember that for every purchase you’re making because you think it’s undervalued, there’s someone on the other side happy to get rid of it at that price.

If you enjoy the gambling aspect of it, and you have the funds to play with, then sure pick some sticks if that’s your thing. But I wouldn’t recommend doing it money you’re relying on for retirement if for an emergency fund.

And yet.

For fiscal conservatives

Bonds aint so hot this year

It’s a valid question. Where to invest in an inflationary rising interest rate market.

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Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong

Yes, sorry, didn’t realize we were talking about undervalued stocks vs market as a whole.

I’d suggest that there is a shit tonne of research over the past century showing how fraught that endeavor is as well. Vanguard exists for a reason.

Remember that for every purchase you’re making because you think it’s undervalued, there’s someone on the other side happy to get rid of it at that price.

If you enjoy the gambling aspect of it, and you have the funds to play with, then sure pick some sticks if that’s your thing. But I wouldn’t recommend doing it money you’re relying on for retirement if for an emergency fund.

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Just for clarity, I’m not suggesting investing ‘conservatively’. If you’re a long way from retirement you should have most of your money invested in stocks. You can whether the volatility and stocks would be expected perform better over the long term.

I’m just saying most people shouldn’t be picking and choosing which stocks to buy, and when to buy them.

Jesus. Apologies for typos and quoting myself. Apparently I’ve got a turkey hangover.

My hangover is pumpkin pie and wine.
The turkey, as always, was too dry.

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I started investing in stocks in April of 2020. Putting every penny I come across into my account, I currently have $90,846 of my own money into my account. My account sits at $107,715, I took out 15k in August 2021 to buy fishing/camping property. That pencils out to a 35.08% increase, in roughly 2 1/2 years. I put in money as I get it so gains are not linear.

I’m pretty confident I can beat the market picking individual stocks and trying to time it, while also using those individual stocks to juice returns with options. I currently have 10.8k cash in my account, nothing I’m watching looks particularly cheap right now.

I have a few dogs I’ve picked but I still have the faith long term in most of them and am still buying as they go down. I’m not any kind of financial savant and think anyone that pays attention could beat the market.

I still maintain putting money in midstreams at 6-9% yields, you probably won’t achieve much share growth but that DRIP will start to accumulate. It isn’t an exciting short possibility, nor growth phenomenon, but that shit will keep growing.

Or, if you want set and forget it, put it in funds.

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Originally Posted by BobMc

I started investing in stocks in April of 2020. Putting every penny I come across into my account, I currently have $90,846 of my own money into my account. My account sits at $107,715, I took out 15k in August 2021 to buy fishing/camping property. That pencils out to a 35.08% increase, in roughly 2 1/2 years. I put in money as I get it so gains are not linear.

I’m pretty confident I can beat the market picking individual stocks and trying to time it, while also using those individual stocks to juice returns with options. I currently have 10.8k cash in my account, nothing I’m watching looks particularly cheap right now.

I have a few dogs I’ve picked but I still have the faith long term in most of them and am still buying as they go down. I’m not any kind of financial savant and think anyone that pays attention could beat the market.

I still maintain putting money in midstreams at 6-9% yields, you probably won’t achieve much share growth but that DRIP will start to accumulate. It isn’t an exciting short possibility, nor growth phenomenon, but that shit will keep growing.

Or, if you want set and forget it, put it in funds.

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“I mean, yeah, the stock market pretty much always goes up”- Warren Buffet.

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Originally Posted by rod9301

My hangover is pumpkin pie and wine.
The turkey, as always, was too dry.

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Shit, this isn’t Ben Shapiro is it?!

Attachment 435447

Barron's on how to Put Your Cash to Work: 3 Strategies For Making the Most of High Yields.

https://archive.ph/Zk2Uf

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Originally Posted by Nobody Famous

Barron's on how to Put Your Cash to Work: 3 Strategies For Making the Most of High Yields.

https://archive.ph/Zk2Uf

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I have no recollection of writing that…

Three Bs

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Originally Posted by Nobody Famous

Barron's on how to Put Your Cash to Work: 3 Strategies For Making the Most of High Yields.

https://archive.ph/Zk2Uf

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Opened a savings account with CIT for my EF after reading this, thank you

Not sure where to put this but if anybody knows the answer they're probably lurking in this thread.

Self-employed sole proprietor looking to open a solo-401k that supports mega backdoor Roth. I don't have time to DIY this year, so looking for a TPA. Any self-proclaimed experts doing this that can recommend a TPA?

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Originally Posted by boltonoutlaw

Opened a savings account with CIT for my EF after reading this, thank you

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A write up from the WSJ similar to the Barron's article, paywell free:

Six Ways to Protect Your Money in 2023: https://archive.vn/KPrbg

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Originally Posted by LsaissLai

For me, stocks and cryptocurrency are casino game.

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The house always wins.

$2 to the MegaJilluons thread, best return on investment around.

I have a condo i bought a few years back at 4.25%. Have since married, made a kid, and bought a house on the other side of town. I now rent the condo for a $200 profit each month (enough to keep up with assessments and maintenance). As a family we are in a good place with finances (no debt other than mortgages, large emergency fund, live well below our means etc).

I have a chunk of cash just hanging out right now. Too afraid to put it into the market currently (i have a maxed 401k and a YOLO etrade account), so im thinking of just paying down the principal on the condo mortgage. I wouldnt totally pay it off, but it would halve the principal at this point. Think that is a good idea, or should i just keep the powder dry for now? I would like to have cash-on-hand in the next 5-10 years to buy and develop property on my own (something closely related to my day job) so that is a consideration too.

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Originally Posted by californiagrown

I have a condo i bought a few years back at 4.25%. Have since married, made a kid, and bought a house on the other side of town. I now rent the condo for a $200 profit each month (enough to keep up with assessments and maintenance). As a family we are in a good place with finances (no debt other than mortgages, large emergency fund, live well below our means etc).

I have a chunk of cash just hanging out right now. Too afraid to put it into the market currently (i have a maxed 401k and a YOLO etrade account), so im thinking of just paying down the principal on the condo mortgage. I wouldnt totally pay it off, but it would halve the principal at this point. Think that is a good idea, or should i just keep the powder dry for now? I would like to have cash-on-hand in the next 5-10 years to buy and develop property on my own (something closely related to my day job) so that is a consideration too.

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It would depend on how risk averse you and your wife are. Similar situation financially, though I don't have the condo. Wife does not want any mortgage even though we refinanced in 2020 to a 15yr at 1.875%. She keeps putting extra money to principle every month.

If I were you, I'd keep it dry for a while. I think we're going to see some bargains on assets coming this year and those in position to move quickly will benefit greatly. The return on the condo principal is OK, but the prices here in Seattle area (you're North Bend, right) are declining. I'd hold on to potentially get some distressed assets.

If the condo is already cash flow positive and the principal owed is already less than it’s worth then let the renter pay it down. Put the money elsewhere. Me, I’ve been buying stocks for the last two months. Or pay the condo off, get a home equity line against it at half the interest rate and move on to the next thing. All depends on what you want to accomplish.

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Originally Posted by phatty

It would depend on how risk averse you and your wife are. Similar situation financially, though I don't have the condo. Wife does not want any mortgage even though we refinanced in 2020 to a 15yr at 1.875%. She keeps putting extra money to principle every month.

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I mean - at this point, you should be able to fairly easily get more than 1.875% on other investment vehicles, so paying the 15y note early doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.

Attachment 442506

Chickens. Invest in chickens.