Printable View
Hey it would be great if you all could send comments to the BTAC about the forecast. New team and director are working on the product. Am pretty certain that we will stick to the NAC platform, which is being worked on as well. Suggestions are (hopefully) helpful. https://bridgertetonavalanchecenter.org/contact-us/
Good discussion. I'm a CBAC homer (an exceptionally biased one at that), but I think they do it better than anyone else. I know from firsthand conversations that they are constantly wary of overselling the danger, for fear of losing the trust of the community. They really do lose sleep over this. I can't speak to the efforts of other forecast centers, but my guess is that they do not take it lightly either.
I was under the impression that the Special Avalanche Bulletin is the preferred tool for introducing less scientific warnings into the forecast. Watches and Warnings are dictated solely by the conditions (AFAIK). The SAB is there to deploy when human factors are expected to be in play (holiday weekend, clearing weather after big storm, etc., uncommon conditions for the area that don't meet the level of a warning but may catch people off guard.)
Plus I want to note that many of you are what we call "Tier 3" users, so of course you want to go beyond the forecast Bottom Line Forecasts. Best pages for Tier 3 folks are the ones deeper in the forecast site like the Snowpack Tracker, where you can see how much SWE came in 24hrs/ how much wind/ temps, plus all the avalanche activity in the rose:
Attachment 483630Attachment 483631
Here's the basis of the modern avalanche forecast, direct from the Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard (https://link.springer.com/article/10...069-017-3070-5
and the critical graphs: Attachment 483632Attachment 483633
Attachment 483637
Now back to our regularly scheduled stoke:
Attachment 483635Attachment 483636
To follow up, my timing was amazing. 4 hours of mostly clear roads and no snow, then started dumping when I rolled into Driggs. Early wake, 2nd chair led to Milk Bottle conditions at the top, accidentally ended up at Blackfoot, which was unpopulated and amazing. Met some locals, my age-ish and moving well, worked our way back over to Sac lift to find the rope still up to the Colter lift. A short 10 minutes later, I chose the right end of the rope at the drop, and got in the first group up Colter. Top to bottom centerpunch of what must have been Eleanor to Tanglefoot. Spent by noon, got sunshine and clear roads for the drive back. Really good day!Quote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
^^^
Nice Tony. Way to get after it. That could be a sketchballs drive.
Stoked when it's a cakewalk all the way to the stoplight in Driggs, eh?
Blackfoot can be the deepest loop on that place. And sometimes big ass whoop de dos and waves.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sweet pics, HMS. Looks like P'sD on the upside down popcorn ceiling looking wind blast there.
Dog Days of January. That's a beaut.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
' a ski anything, no thought process '.
hmmmmm....
Lynn, Thanks for the keys to tier 3!Quote:
Originally Posted by homemadesalsa
Hope no one was hurt, buddy sent crown pic from Teton lifthttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...2183af75a0.jpg
Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
holy shit that's a pretty crazy place for that to happen? that's also a massive crown.
Skiing's a silly and inherently selfish activity and also really fun.
Attachment 483697
Another warm day = some signs of strengthening in the 'pack (at least where I was... ymmv based on aspect, elevation, zone — use your brain). No gloves, no jacket, no hat uphill walking.
Yikes! Is that the top of Ashley Ridge?Quote:
Originally Posted by kokomas
Yeah a little past Ashley ridge, right side of cat track going into that gully. Heard no one was caught/foundQuote:
Originally Posted by The Suit
Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
Skier's left, Lower Ashley ridge. The hard half.
Not a common spot for a crack but a perfect leeward slope on a firmed up base with some mega windloading coming down both upper Ashley and South Pass traverse.
Most locs have reeled it in quite bit. The overall vibe is def a don't go unless you're really into the snow and are willing to bet on movement close to hand.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tram laps were good today. Off piste is good firm crud, carvy and predictable. Visibility has been choppy tho. Groomers are zooming, shaving an inch or three.
40 days of hardpack is beginning to pay off.
I'm easy to find. Maybe Casper at 11 too.
Any visiting mags turning this weekend?
I'm going to be in the area 2/9-2/14 with my dad and 6 y/o. First time to the Jackson area, plan on doing 2-3 days at Targhee(we're staying at the base), I hear the runs above Sacajawea, Peaked Mtn, and Mary's nipple are good bets for fun terrain.
Let me know anything I should know about GT or reccs while there.
I'd love to do a day or two of earning turns while my 6y/o is in lessons. I looked at Yostmark tours and may do that but $400 a day hurts pretty bad. If anyone would be down for letting me tag along that would be amazing! I'm a flatlander but run ~30 miles/week, am up to date on my vaccinations and leg blasters 😉, and have beacon, shovel, and probe. I've also read Tremper's "Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain" which is to say I know nothing but am at least aware of how little I know! I'm also happy to provide post touring beers to sweeten the proposition!
From yesterday's BTAC obs:
1. Crown on lower Columbia ( where some people like to put an uptrack)
2. Maverik, lots of collapsing and cracking, avalanches observed.
3. Large avalanche on Ullr's, lots of cracking observed.
4. Natural avalanches into trail creek (low elevation).
5. Mail Cabin, slide ran into creek and up onto Windy ridge uptrack.
6. JHMR, slab sits on poor structure, avalanches observed.
7. Mail Cabin, IGG Pig, ran full track, sympathetic releases in the trees.
8. Oliver, multiple crowns in the Banana and the Brewer's zone.
9. Mail Cabin, multiple crowns less than an eighth mile apart. Widespread cracking
10. Phillips ridge, avalanche triggered by 3rd skier on slope, slope has seen consistent ski use all season.
That's one day's obs. It may not be historic, and certainly isn't unprecedented, but it's certainly got my attention.
Checking the bc snowpack is certainly not for the faint of heart.Quote:
Originally Posted by panchosdad
A couple of JHMR guides at work yesterday.
Attachment 483741
Attachment 483742
If you zoom in at the crown, you can see two layers.
We observed that also much lower down on our own
test.
Is any of this really that surprising though?
Most everyone knew we had a PWL. Then we finally get a good cold storm cycle with high winds. Then it warms up drastically. It makes perfect sense that things are extremely touchy right now. In another week to 10 days given the forecasted temps am I wrong in thinking things will be far less reactive as the snowpack has time to settle?
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
Not surprising at all, but worth mentioning eh? More data more better.Quote:
Originally Posted by east or bust
Now is when things start to get tricky. Load and warm weather will be good for stability, crystals closer together, more bonds per volume and plenty of moisture to grow bonds. But how quickly is it stabilizing? When do you start venturing into steeper terrain? Personally I'm going to let others test the boundaries before I start stepping out.
Just had a pic sent of the entire cliff band above Spacewalk/Zero G ripping wall to wall est 2' crown. SAR heli just flew overhead. That's all I got right now.
Update: patrol had asked late day people hanging in the cabin to hold on incase they needed a probe line, then released them ...sounds like no tracks heading into slide. SAR went past resort to the park and just flew back overhead.
Beautiful day and really fun meadowskipping.
Attachment 483788
Attachment 483789Attachment 483790
A little better pic.
Attachment 483803
Crown was only about 24", NBD.
Wouldn't surprise me if someone from the cattrack got ejected onto this slope and cracked it. Not enough to bury but steep enough for a fast ride with some collision stuff imminent.
Not surprising above Zero/Space, generally same aspect as Ship's Prow.
Weeks of hard dry conditions followed by a typical windy storm(s) has produced results that most of us kinda foresee and is good input for those with less local mileage.
As PD alluded to, the waiting game for stability now is kinda the long game.
Went for a walk off the top while it was still nice this morning.
Attachment 483825
Got really warm and foggy later. A late run was braille.
Saw the helicopter, hope it ended up being nothing.
Light rain on the pass @ 8pm per NWS.
Might go out tomorrow just to take a look.
A friend and I are bringing our ikon passes to the village 2/7-11. hopefully things start bonding and the snow turns back on in feb
This is crazy, raining on the west side
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
I see it as percolation, bonding, asphalt, warm toes...
I’ll give credit where credit’s due… the tram ops were killing it on the tunes today.
Pea soup from bottom of Casper to halfway down R trail most of the day. Stuck to tram laps. Bowl was skiing great, so buffed up top and chargeable to the bottom.
Felt good to get out and stretch the legs after a sedentary week with covid.
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
yes ^^^^^^^ although where asphalt comes into play I'm not seeing it ? ah, seeing itQuote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
A pretty thick slab is forming, still ass to the ground under it, slightly improving ass but ass no doubt.
We need to send our guys down to train with your guys for a few days.Quote:
Originally Posted by east or bust
I had words with that new kook playing classical all last weekend. Then he got another, more polite instructional from the older loc standing beside him, for the entire rest of the trip about how the music is not about the operator.Quote:
Originally Posted by east or bust
It's about trying to hit a sweet spot for the group onboard.
On a storm day, first box after waiting for 3 hours in the cold for 16"-36" of drifted blower, we're not gonna tolerate some Taylor Swift shite.
Tram laps, FTW!
Soap Soup.
I laffed when I read how it's going down on yer new box. Most of our newbs are kooks but a few who have a season learned quick that the music is important.Quote:
Originally Posted by swimmy
Ya gotta take them by the ears and 'splain it to 'em.
That's how we train them.
zzz taking advantage of a sucker hole yesterday...
Attachment 483975
https://images2.imgbox.com/38/96/A6K...?download=trueQuote:
Originally Posted by Djongo Unchained
Last night my daughter had her boyfriend over (she's 16 and this is our world right now) and they were in her room listening to classical music, the door must remain open so I overheard the music. She is apparently trying to appear sophisticated or whatever, he's a grade above her. I said to my lady, WTF is with the classical music? And then I remembered doing the same goofy shit when I was her age and then I admitted that that little stage lasted only a minute or two and then I realized that classical music fucking sucks! Anyways, that's a bit of a random story but who the heck thinks that's appropriate for the red box and it's passengers is freaking nuts!
Everybody on that ride is looking for a good time, not a fucking nap time.
Look at the bright side, she wasn’t spinning Barry White and Sadé.
Hey now, I love me some Sade. The lady tells me it gets her in the mood! :DQuote:
Originally Posted by rideit
Still watching the weather, and hoping to make a pilgrimage north to y'alls neck of the woods this season. Had an old hip injury start nagging me early season and just getting it under control, might try for early February. Keep posting the stoke here, it's so good.
Which is exactly why you don't want to hear that coming from your daughter's room... :eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by raisingarizona13
T-minus 48 hours. Skiing the resort Thur-Mon, touring if we can find safe conditions. If anyone wants to take some laps or grab a beer, shoot me a PM.
Bahaha! Right over my head on that one!Quote:
Originally Posted by Full Trucker
i tried to be subtle
https://media.giphy.com/media/G8xwi3ghEd02c/giphy.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by raisingarizona13
My mind went to riding the tram, this is probably a defense mechanism I've developed since the thought of my daughter "maturing" freaks me out worse then walking in on my parents when I was a kid. F that was traumatic.Quote:
Originally Posted by rideit