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no its not: http://www.businessinsider.com/closi...1-2015-2015-12Quote:
Originally Posted by Summit
close at 17400, up 25 points this year and hadn't last new high was in march 2015; 15 months ago now going into the weakest season of the year with brexit's potential to mess up things for a while; expecting things to go up here without fed intervention like you've never seen yet; is a not being realistic.
I'm betting 1800 s+p(or lower) before September without breaking a sweat.
Not expecting fed intervention isn't realistic. Not to say it's going back up, but that whole fed intervention thing is bigger than a caveat.
Ill take the over until 2000 on the spy fals
It's worse today. Glad I waited, may buy a bit this afternoon. Tech/HC names. Glencore.
I bought stock today.
Trade has been orderly and liquid in all markets. Very quiet now.
Anyone use tradeking?
Maybe a good buy. The VIX is down today.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
I'm still waiting for 1400 in the SNP. :)
Not exactly the close I wanted to see. Hedge fund index down 8% in one month?
Liquidation risk. I have support 1980>1960. Below there it's anyone's guess.
How do you technicals guys look at one-off events and support? Like support doesn't really seem to matter with larger events (Id throw this in that category).
I use previous highs and lows on the timeframe the market is in. Right now we are in the weekly and monthly chart because any shorter term is blown out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Disagree that they don't matter. Longer term techicals are the most important.
How does a weekly or monthly chart matter when a one off event pushes the Dow down 900 points in 2 days? How many levels of support did it blow through?
Prices mean nothing without considering the volume trading at a price. 1000 contracts vs 1 is much more powerful info.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
When I first strated trading on the floor I would watch the ticker tape, and when you saw big blocks go up, that was isually the end of
of that move. If you werent on that print, you were left chasing it.
Same thing with charts. Moving averages dont include volume. I look for support and resistance at prices where there is at least previous volume. Id say 12 month lows would be he first good price and volume to buy. 10% lower.
but thats me, and im pretty much out of date.
None on the weekly or monthly in my view. 5% is not that much.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
The monthly chart does puts1800 back on the table right now.
Interesting night. Dollar has come off quite a bit after an inconsequential new high on the daily chart.
Looks counter trend at this point but Nikkie has also reversed a 2% loss.
That's also the beauty of charting. You use Market Profile? I only use price for charting. Volume is typically displayed graphically in length of the bar so I assume the volume is displayed in price.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
Chart and volume analsysis is an art. For me it's just a tool to help with short term entry and exit points. There is no holy grail.
I suspect this rally stops at 2060 but you never know. Hedge funds are jacked up bad and someone could get horribly squeezed.
The thing about the Brexit decline is that it was too orderly. To liquid. You need unmatched trades and delayed opens to have real panic.
I checked the charts on stuff I own plus major indices and am not convinced of big downside yet. Cut a weakling position and added another.
TWTR has bids!
Doubled down on LYG on Monday and picked up some BCS. Good to see some green in the portfolio on Monday.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Its not so much charting as it is information. People pay big money to know who is behind big trades? are they opening or closing? when they are being made? Especially OTC stuff.
There are people who trade with that info only and piggyback the firms when they are trading with their own dumb shit customers.
Its one of the few reasons the floors still exist.
You ever put volume on the vertical axis to do what you noted earlier "what matters is volume exchanged at X price"? That's what 4m is noting, aggregate volume at a given price over extended periods of time. It allows you to easily understand where large participants have moved positions. And the best part, it's fractal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
example for me on both view and application is FSLR here. I bought right about 47-49 range, and am not shedding the position as it's squarely within a high timeframe value area / point of control. Market participants have agreed for some time there is value here, hence the high volume historically near 50. I'm risking $10/share against potential upside of $25.
http://tos.mx/7waFD1?image
I'm not sure what to think about the mkt long term. Seems free trade may have run its course for now, on top of free money. We could definetly have a squeeze of somekind before any real selling takes place. Problem is there is no place to put your money anymore.
Free/close to free trade will still remain...think Germany wants to put tariffs on its exports to the #5 economy? At the end of the day, whenever that happens (talk now is that Britain questioning when/if article 50 is implemented) it's in the interests of the eu and uk to trade with each other- and cheaply. Otherwise, the biggest example is that Germany loses, and if Germany loses the eu loses.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
Company like JPM yields 3% and dividend is up 50% in three years. I believe the banks will eventually (years maybe) be perceived like utilities and will get multiple expansion. It's hopium for sure.
Trump protectionism is possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
No place to put money anymore, yet there's more of it than ever before. The great paradox of the present.
The topic is fascinating imo, markets going up because of surplus of capital and not higher aggregate demand.
That's a bubble right?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bromontana