that’s not how weather forecasting works though
that’s not how weather forecasting works though
I kind of like it not being an exact science. You have to embrace the "you don't know until you go" mentality. Some of my best days ever were surprises where we were supposed to get snow flurries with no accumulation and it ends up being several inches of blower... and no one is around because of the forecast.
If you want to get the best days you have to be willing to show up for some stinkers.Quote:
Originally Posted by TahoeJ
Meanwhile--Squaw Valley firing up the snow guns. (Even though it's still summer out there.)
https://www.sacbee.com/entertainment...246512370.html
I much preferred the days before BA. IMHO he has fucked ip a good thing. You used to actually have to know how to forecast a little bit yourself to hit the best days and often they were sleepers. Now almost every single powder day and even the almost powder days are packed to the gills with tech folks on soul7s. Fuck all the internet forecasting. That goes for a surfline as well. Won’t give any of those sites a cent of my money as they only made the crowding worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by TahoeJ
One of my favorite days with my wife was an April weekend. Forecast was calling for 8”, but kept dropping each day of the week until Friday morning was calling for maybe an inch overnight and cold temps. Being spring. I one showed up for the 14” that fell with no wind over night. We were still getting fresh tracks off of 10 at 1pm. There must have been 50 people on the hill. Although, I’ll accept that BA might have made the same call. But this was well before his style of forecasting showed up on the Internet.
I hit a sleeper powder day at Alpine--about a foot of fresh light. I hiked out High T, looked around, and realized there was one set of patrol tracks and not a single living soul in sight. A little spooky almost. And decisions, decisions. Where do you go when you have an entire untracked cirque to ski?
I trust the NWS and won't use anything else.
ditto. and BA works for Squaw.Quote:
Originally Posted by ~mikey b
NWS works for you
As long as no one with a sharpie messes with the snow forecast.Quote:
Originally Posted by ~mikey b
Quote:
Originally Posted by lepistoir
Not sure it's really going out on a limb, but (in)AccuWeather forecasts 90 days ahead, on a calendar, so you can look right now and see what the weather will be like on Xmas or New Years.
And yes, I know it's almost completely worthless, but from an entertainment standpoint, I enjoy looking every now & then.
Next month looks like $$!
The weather has shifted for sure. Much cooler and foggier on the coast compared to the last two months.
With my arm in a sling until Thanksgiving, I’m good with a hot, dry fall.
I’ve been skiing the Sierra for about 20 years now. During periods while I’m in I hired reserve we tend to get very little snow. Once I recover, it tends to dump. The drought years were from when my son was a new born to until age 5, when he became more fun to ski with. Right before he was born I was consulting, had flexibility and was the best season I can remember. What can I say, I’ve got some decent karma. So based on these facts, slow start to the season, but should be decent by mid January. So there you have it folks. You are welcome. Keep those bike chains clean for the next few months.
That's summer weather on the CA coast. Bad sign. Instead of winter on the way, summer is returning.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ottime
Mammoth seems to have the wackiest (or typical) autumn weather at the moment. Inversion with very heavy smoke yesterday, dispersal winds today, snow by Saturday night/sunday.
$$??Attachment 344246Quote:
Originally Posted by powpig
BA is a lot of fun to read, he did throw out an above-average snowfall prediction a few weeks ago. He didn’t necessarily put a whole lot of stake in it, but it’s fun just reading what he’s thinking. And for what it’s worth, it seems like his pre-season predictions are actually pretty spot on.Quote:
Originally Posted by lepistoir
Meanwhile, the weather app on my iPhone is currently showing a low of 3 on Sunday in South Lake, 12 in Carson. And I’m still waiting on heat to be fixed in my place. Oh it’ll be a good weekend
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Not really any more. Climate change and shit. It has been hot since August. Maybe July had some foggy weather, but a lot less than normal. Tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers had a bomber year. My Brussels sprouts otoh are dudes. Too much sun and heat.Quote:
Originally Posted by old goat
This fog is semi summer like but not getting the strong NW afternoon flow. More of a NE cooling air. Not a hot Santa Ana style either.
Don’t worry. It will warm right back up after that heat gets fixed.Quote:
Originally Posted by HJ5
Forecast above looks spot on based on my shouldermeter.
There's a bold bet!Quote:
Originally Posted by HJ5
I'm shorting BA and the west coast this winter. Maybe he's seeing some major pattern change but I've seen the fall pattern pretty much become the Dec-Feb pattern for a couple years now. And my cat is shedding like crazy. That means it's gonna be a dry one.
Didn’t I already explain it is going to turn on after MLK? Like my broken ankle year, March is going to be bomber.
Do I need chains to go over the pass?
I like reading BA but I also read the NWS forecast discussion to put me to sleep. Waiting on ski ream plan of attack at Squaw for the kiddos and then relay to our schools to see if its even ok. Its a shitshow with kids and schools obviously...SF Public Health only allows the kids to go to school and play ONE additional (outdoor) sport. Which is fine until spring soccer/little league season so hopefully it gets less restrictive as long as protocols are still in place. Waiting for parents to spontaneously combust at any moment...
No one is throwing Sheckter undern the bus, guy seems to hit it right most years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Powcruzer
I'm *hoping* for some snow-gun action this weekend. A wrod by Halloween would lighten the mood a bit.Attachment 344304
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I saw on a local newspaper that Squaw / Alpine started the snow-making guns a week ago. Sunday is very cold, it's likely they will use them.
No. Just fired em up for test. Big news apparentlyQuote:
Originally Posted by Flippo
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just got back from schweitzer where i skied 1.5" on grass and rocks. my original plan was to head toward washington pass which had a bunch of snow but then the forecast changed to rain at 11k. I checked around and an on the ball forecaster from the spokane office noticed dew points dropping in the onkanagon valley and thought there was a good chance of snow instead of rain at bonners ferry which is near (and lower than) schweitzer.
Contrast that with this afternoon's forecast out of the reno office. There is no discussion of, nor even mention of the word precipitation or any of it's brethren in the entirety of the forecast. And whoever it is doesn't sign it anymore. weak. X
Attachment 344336
Sometimes it feels like
Somebody’s watching me (elk on the ridge)
Attachment 344337