Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MultiVerse
The slides say at current incidence there's an 8-fold reduction in vaxxed vs unvaxxed. Also MA estimates put the crowd at >90% (Ptown 95%, crowd 97%) vaccinated. So when CDC says 74% of cases were vaxxed that's consistent with >80% efficacy against infection with a quick back of the envelope conditional probability of infection for each group.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
LongShortLong
Indeed. I don't fully trust the CDC to get the right data or draw the right conclusions. Or maybe they do, but the PR people mutilate before it becomes public. So I like to see the data and run some rough checks. Anyway, I crunched some San Diego County (CA) data and came up with 93% efficacy vs infection for 30-49yo, and 97% against hospitalization. Put differently, I see a 13-fold reduction in infection, so I support CDC's 8-fold finding in an environment where people partied hard for 2 weeks straight, giving Covid every chance.
Certainly there could be problems with the data or my interpretation, but the vaccines should work quite well to limit spread, morbidity, and mortality and data supports this.
Thanks for the responses. The main reason that I question the current data is because the CDC has previously stated that they are not tracking asymptomatic and mild infections of fully vaccinated people. I understand that there are indirect ways to measure that information and that states and local government may track it. But that is my reason to question the CDCs current conclusion about disease incidence.
I noticed that providencetown's positivity rate is still pretty high (11.10 percent). I have a coworker that lives in the area who is offline for an intended vacation. Hopefully they are enjoying themselves and not laying low in quarantine/isolation.