What's the number?

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Originally Posted by SkiCougar

I somehow missed it too and that's a dam shame because I actually did serious thought and research and am on it. I figure I'm about 4 years away regardless of who is president.

I highly recommend reading early retirement extreme, this guy and his wife live on about 7k yearly and he retired a long time ago; but they don't live on the golf course or take many trips and another example is mr. money mustache, although his fans just try to live real cheap; the extreme guy totally changed his mindset to abandon consumerism.

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I don't get the appeal of doing the "extreme" thing. Or maybe I should say, the extreme savings so you can retire early to live a mostly austere lifestyle doesn't sound appealing. I do know some folks that somewhat did this, moving to NZ for a few years while one parent taught, and the other worked odd jobs to stay busy and took care of the kids.

They are both working FT again, and back in the States. I guess in the end everyone has their risk tolerance, and lifestyle wants.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPqchDH22Vw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVGINIsLnqU&list=PLmXxqSJJq-yVEujTeLRVNdCGtIj-4VFJh&index=6

New Yorker piece on Mr. Money Mustache

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Originally Posted by Big Steve

New Yorker piece on Mr. Money Mustache

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https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/01/o...lomo.html?_r=0

^^re-run but worthwhile

Who here has played around with calculators like these, and what do you think? Am curious if those stating they need $3 or 4 MM have done any calculations to arrive at those numbers.

Firecalc (lets you enter values for future Social Security payments, one-time influx (e.g. sell house + downsize = free up equity):
http://firecalc.com/

Vanguard's Monte Carlo simulator (adjusts for inflation, but that's it -- no SS or other factors):
https://retirementplans.vanguard.com...estEggCalc.jsf

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Originally Posted by El Chupacabra

Am curious if those stating they need $3 or 4 MM have done any calculations to arrive at those numbers.

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I've done some back of the envelope calculations based on current investment returns and projections concerning health insurance and college costs.

The number does depend on whether one integrates debt against it.

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Originally Posted by Buster Highmen

I've done some back of the envelope calculations based on current investment returns and projections concerning health insurance and college costs.

The number does depend on whether one integrates debt against it.

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What are you projecting for health ins + college costs? Health ins to cover date of retirement up to Medicare eligibility? (or are you budgeting for private insurance and not accounting for Medicare?)

How many kids, and are you funding 100% of undergrad (and post-grad too)?

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Originally Posted by El Chupacabra

What are you projecting for health ins + college costs? Health ins to cover date of retirement up to Medicare eligibility? (or are you budgeting for private insurance and not accounting for Medicare?)

How many kids, and are you funding 100% of undergrad (and post-grad too)?

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1k/mo health insurance up to 65, 2 kids, 250k each ed fund.

if any of you are really into the retire earlier thing, check out reddit.com/r/financialindependence

most anything you can think of has been discussed

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Originally Posted by El Chupacabra

Who here has played around with calculators like these, and what do you think? Am curious if those stating they need $3 or 4 MM have done any calculations to arrive at those numbers.

Firecalc (lets you enter values for future Social Security payments, one-time influx (e.g. sell house + downsize = free up equity):
http://firecalc.com/

Vanguard's Monte Carlo simulator (adjusts for inflation, but that's it -- no SS or other factors):
https://retirementplans.vanguard.com...estEggCalc.jsf

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Yah, done back of napkin, too. Looked at the Vanguard and AARP calculators to create a goal, and prepared a draft budget based on current dollars.

Used 4% pre-tax income x $3M portfolio = $120K gross, plus $3K/mo SS (estimated at 75% of current full retirement benefit estimate due to anticipated cuts in SS) totals $156K gross.

Nets close to $10K/mo assuming 23% actual tax rate. Depends on how one handles the income streams.

Further assume costs for travel reduce as health care costs go up and that mortgage disappears by age 67 (which then helps cover inflation and health costs).

Figure 529 Plan gets kid part way there but assume $1K/mo for kid in college/grad school. Total parental college contribution $250K. As that college obligation disappears around age 67, the $1K also helps cover rising costs due to inflation.

Also have real estate wild card if we move. Don't like to count on it in these calculations because it's illiquid and real return is variable. Consider it a fall back move.

I hope I'm over-saving. Who the hell knows what will happen?

Well, at least you know your number.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OffZEuZyX9s

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Originally Posted by iceman

Well, at least you know your number.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OffZEuZyX9s

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Zactly!

Our planning is simpler --

One kid in 2nd year undergrad at state university, one in senior year high school (going to same state U as other). 529 accounts funded sufficiently to cover state U's projected annual cost (so far we are ahead of budget on the kid in sophomore year). Kids are on their own for all post-grad expenses. They can take loans if they want to go to grad school -- we're not funding that.

No debt.

Also projecting SS for me and Mrs. C. at age 70, reduced by 25-33% for margin of safety (guessing that payouts will be reduced by then). Could opt to take SS earlier if needed, but planning on postponing it to age 70 under current projections.

The hard part is medical expense planning for the time period of retirement date up to Medicare eligibility -- Obamacare appears unlikely to continue, but who knows what will be available for health insurance. Mrs. C. has VA coverage that she uses for some things, but would prefer not to use the VA for everything.

A very comfortable number for us would be $2MM liquid (other than kid college expenses), but calculations and projections suggest that something closer to $1.5MM is totally fine for pulling the plug on fulltime work -- and then just do part-time while the investments grow. Part-time with health insurance coverage might be the best way to go.

Good savings withdrawal calculator: http://www.mycalculators.com/ca/retcalc1m.html with realistic inflation and growth of investment.

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Originally Posted by Sirshredalot

4% before taxes is pretty conservative

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in the "new normal" 4% is not conservative. from what I understand people running investment funds for defined retirement plans are rethinking their rate returns

The way rates are going 4% nominal is right around the corner.

I wonder what a 50-year note would yield.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sho...ond-2016-12-13

In 2001 with a budget surplus treasury stopped issuing 30 year bonds. It was restored in 2006 and now we're talking 50 and 100 year offerings?

I'm against it.

Well it doesn't seem like the smartest idea so they'll probably do it.

When you have won the game. Stop

http://whitecoatinvestor.com/bernste...-win-the-game/

Easy to sleep at night. I've seen enough crashes to respect the opinion.

I don't know the number. But I do know I am so fucking far from it that I should be crying right now. Late 40s, with a kid in kindergarten, so I'm pretty much fucked. Only saving grace is that I am working for the state and the pension could save my ass if I work long enough. But I need to stay at the state until my late 60s to make that work.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

When you have won the game. Stop

http://whitecoatinvestor.com/bernste...-win-the-game/

Easy to sleep at night. I've seen enough crashes to respect the opinion.

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If "winning the game and stopping" means that you take everything out of stocks (as that link advocates), then you'll need a LOT more $ before you reach that point, or you've got to be older (say, 60+) and closer to SS/ Medicare age. Inflation is going to eat away at savings that don't grow much.

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Originally Posted by El Chupacabra

If "winning the game and stopping" means that you take everything out of stocks (as that link advocates), then you'll need a LOT more $ before you reach that point, or you've got to be older (say, 60+) and closer to SS/ Medicare age. Inflation is going to eat away at savings that don't grow much.

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It says you need 25 times your retirement income in laddered bonds and tips.

The point of the opinion is that the perceived alpha of equity holdings is not worth the risk close to retirement because you will never make it up.

Yes, age specific.

I've always thought that 20 million would be an appropriate sum.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

When you have won the game. Stop

http://whitecoatinvestor.com/bernste...-win-the-game/

Easy to sleep at night. I've seen enough crashes to respect the opinion.

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good piece thank you

Chup, inflation is going to be pretty much of a non-issue for a long time in my opinion (which ain't worth much but hey). Second, as 4M said, his advice is definitely age-dependent and he doesn't advocate dumping all equities for a person in mid-career, he's suggesting you take some out when they're up and sit when they're down and gradually build a safe platform, hopefully equivalent to 20x your take-home pay, eventually. But more important than that he's saying get going on it now not later.