Real Estate Crash thread

The one thing that the Bay Area has that many places don't - Jobs. I'm averaging $20 increases per month on the rentals we manage for the last 12 months. The day a unit (Sunnyvale) becomes available its rented without any advertising.

Now that we've painted our new SF home inside and out (bought in end of Sept), made the backyard beautiful, the thought of flipping it has definitely crossed our minds. The place looked like a dump when we bought it. Staying for the long term as 1) its a family home and 2) there's just nothing out there on the other side of the transaction for us. But one can always wonder.

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Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

Err - the interactive graphic mud was using to support his statements:
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/20...b/interactive/

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NAR doesnt run seasonal adjustments on their data, on a national basis they were up 1.1% yr/yr last month

If by jobs you mean another massive tech bubble you are correct.

Even the VC's are scaling back

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Originally Posted by Deebased

If by jobs you mean another massive tech bubble you are correct.

Even the VC's are scaling back

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Another massive tech bubble, you talk like this is a bad thing, hehe.

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Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

Why would you expect any information on shadow inventory from an agregator of MLS listings? Unless you are a Wall Street pizza delivery guy

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where's this shadow inventory you speak of and benny has been speaking of for almost 3 years now? Do you have pictures in your neighborhood of a bunch of abandoned houses? Because i sure dont. And i assure you, im within 50 miles of ground zero housing meltdown. (stockton and sacramento) So unless you guys can show me some actual pics of houses NOT for sale and EMPTY, im going to have to call bullshit on both of you. My neighborhood has like 4 for sale and 5 listed as rentals. Thats out of about 400 houses. Zero looked abandoned. I drove around the loops yesterday. The banks could be keeping them up, but i doubt it.

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Originally Posted by cramer

where's this shadow inventory you speak of and benny has been speaking of for almost 3 years now? Do you have pictures in your neighborhood of a bunch of abandoned houses? Because i sure dont. And i assure you, im within 50 miles of ground zero housing meltdown. (stockton and sacramento) So unless you guys can show me some actual pics of houses NOT for sale and EMPTY, im going to have to call bullshit on both of you. My neighborhood has like 4 for sale and 5 listed as rentals. Thats out of about 400 houses. Zero looked abandoned. I drove around the loops yesterday. The banks could be keeping them up, but i doubt it.

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Banks are keeping them up or allowing the people to live in the homes essentially rent free in the agreement that they keep them up. When they are forced to move out they will be forced into small units or forced to double up/move back in with their parents etc. Part of the reason rental units are rising in price.

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Originally Posted by cramer

where's this shadow inventory you speak of and benny has been speaking of for almost 3 years now? The banks could be keeping them up, but i doubt it.

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According to the Redfin data, last month there were 8,874 homes for sale in the Los Angeles MSA and this is a county with roughly 10,000,000! According to the latest Census figures 1.4 million homes in Los Angeles County are owner-occupied. Therefore that 8,874 of available homes represents 0.6 percent of the pool of homes for sale. So it should be rather apparent that at any given point, only a small pool of homes are for sale.

This also brings up distressed property. There are 25,053 homes in Los Angeles County that are either bank owned, scheduled for auction, or have received a notice of default. The amount of distressed property is nearly 3 times the amount of available homes for sale. In thinly traded markets like housing this does make a big difference especially when this inventory is not on the market for sale.

I'll bet you that 40% of those homes you speak of carrying a mortgage are underwater or nearly underwater on that mortgage. Therefore, shadow inventory, because they cannot be sold.

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Originally Posted by chatton18

the agreement that they keep them up

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I bought a BoA short sale. I wish that were the case. It's not like they have a property inspector going out to look.

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Originally Posted by cramer

where's this shadow inventory you speak of and benny has been speaking of for almost 3 years now? Do you have pictures in your neighborhood of a bunch of abandoned houses? Because i sure dont. And i assure you, im within 50 miles of ground zero housing meltdown. (stockton and sacramento) So unless you guys can show me some actual pics of houses NOT for sale and EMPTY, im going to have to call bullshit on both of you. My neighborhood has like 4 for sale and 5 listed as rentals. Thats out of about 400 houses. Zero looked abandoned. I drove around the loops yesterday. The banks could be keeping them up, but i doubt it.

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renting out to college kids who'll trash the place because you can't sell it counts

~ year ago there was a wind storm that knocked down a bunch of fences (many) in the neighborhood. Well correlated who was underwater/distressed/what have you with who was not willing to put up new fences. The lumberyard sales dudes agreed.


Clearly though, California's Golden
http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf
BUY BUY BUY!

It definitely feels like we've rebounded here. Not nearly as many distressed properties for sale. Not as easy to negotiate prices down. Inventory almost approaching a sellers market. Right now things feel healthy here. Prices certainly haven't skyrocketed, but they've had some modest gains. Harder to find insane deals for investors, but this current market feels more healthy for the community as a whole.

I have been focused on the bar project most these days. I'll post some photos of the interior in a couple of weeks. I'm beyond stoked with how things have turned out.

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Originally Posted by meatdrink9

It definitely feels like we've rebounded here. Not nearly as many distressed properties for sale. Not as easy to negotiate prices down. Inventory almost approaching a sellers market. Right now things feel healthy here. Prices certainly haven't skyrocketed, but they've had some modest gains. Harder to find insane deals for investors, but this current market feels more healthy for the community as a whole.

I have been focused on the bar project most these days. I'll post some photos of the interior in a couple of weeks. I'm beyond stoked with how things have turned out.

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Your restoring a bar? fkna, talk about a go getter! I look forward to the before and after pic's!

Go back a few pages in this thread, and you'll find some after pics.

Those photos were the just the roof deck portion of the bar. We'll wrap up the interior of the bar within the next 10 days. :)

www.alleged25th.com has a few photos of the roof deck and can link you to the Facebook page where more photos live.

The crash missed Toronto entirely, in fact prices are just skyrocketing.

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Originally Posted by IVplay

The crash missed Toronto entirely, in fact prices are just skyrocketing.

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Actually, no. Toronto and Vancouver are finally stalling, and dropping. Good luck, canucks.

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Originally Posted by meatdrink9

It definitely feels like we've rebounded here. Not nearly as many distressed properties for sale. Not as easy to negotiate prices down. Inventory almost approaching a sellers market. Right now things feel healthy here. Prices certainly haven't skyrocketed, but they've had some modest gains. Harder to find insane deals for investors, but this current market feels more healthy for the community as a whole.

I have been focused on the bar project most these days. I'll post some photos of the interior in a couple of weeks. I'm beyond stoked with how things have turned out.

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The last 3 houses in my 'hood have gone in 4 days, and became a bidding war. We are ground zero for housing armageddon here in FL.
I have a contractor down in SWFL that trimmed out about 500 homes last year, expecting to double that this year.
They'll be up to their old tricks in no time down there.

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Actually, no. Toronto and Vancouver are finally stalling, and dropping. Good luck, canucks.

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Well stalling yes but not dropping.

Considering my mom bought my house for 650,000 eight years ago, and it being evaluated at 1.25 M, it still panned out fairly well.

And Vancouver is a whole notha level.

Ah yes, this time it is different....

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Originally Posted by timeo

Ah yes, this time it is different....

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it's deja vu all over again

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Actually, no. Toronto and Vancouver are finally stalling, and dropping. Good luck, canucks.

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Anyone with half a brain for risk tolerance will bail. We're dumping a house in Coquitlam; taking the capital gains and putting it into something with more upside - like maybe LULU

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Originally Posted by meatdrink9

Those photos were the just the roof deck portion of the bar. We'll wrap up the interior of the bar within the next 10 days. :)

www.alleged25th.com has a few photos of the roof deck and can link you to the Facebook page where more photos live.

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pretty f'n impressive. looking forward to the interior pics.

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Originally Posted by IVplay

Well stalling yes but not dropping.

Considering my mom bought my house for 650,000 eight years ago, and it being evaluated at 1.25 M, it still panned out fairly well.

And Vancouver is a whole notha level.

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Get back to us when it actually closes for 1.25, ok?

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Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Get back to us when it actually closes for 1.25, ok?

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Well three houses down sold for 1.1M and we went inside and it was not as nice as our house so I assume my house's evaluation is more or less spot on.

What's the forecast for REIT's in 2013? I'm in VGSIX.