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The comments about needing a % of your income prior to retiring don't really work. If your putting 5k a month into retirement and $ into kids college funds etc, you will likely need way less than 70%. I'd like to be debt free at 50, pay for the girls schooling at retire from the 9-5 world. I doubt I'd retire fully but maybe work a few deals here and there to keep busy.
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So that's what you call me...Quote:
Originally Posted by XXX-er
You know... that or uh.... His Dudeness, Duder, or El Duderino if your not into the whole brevity thing.
I think the % of income calculators are there as a way to get people to start thinking and start planning. So many people have no idea what to expect. I think that's how we see giant numbers like "you need $5 million to retire" - the vast majority of people will never accumulate that. So people set unrealistic sky high goals and give up on actual planning, half jokingly saying they're going to work until they die.
IMHO the only accurate calculation is to do your own budget, figure out what you spend, and then figure out how you meet that spend requirement in retirement. The "4% rule" is a good rule of thumb for sorting out how much you need to have invested in order to meet your spend requirements. (and then you can debate that % up or down depending on how extra conservative or lenient you want to view it, or based on your particular investments)
I'm sticking with my projections from last year. Target is $1.5mm, no debt, paid off house, a couple of future income sources (sale and downsize of house being the big one), and social security. Apply 4% to $1.5mm and get $60k annual spend ($5/ month). Once SS kicks in (whether at 62 or 70, or in between), that covers a lot.
^ ^ ^ I agree with most of that. $1.5 million should be a good safe number with paid off home, SS benefits >$4K/month (couple) and smart spending. Experts say it's okay to spend principal to get to 70 before taking SS to hedge against you and/or your spouse growing older than your life expectancy at age 62 (SS snapshot for actuarial purposes).
But the important part of planning is not just achieving a number, but finding a low cost way to live after work ends. Do the calculations on some of those commercial plug in the numbers calculators, and it's soon evident that inflation is your biggest enemy. So, moving to a place where the 1% are, like ski towns, is not a wise idea. Keep it cheap.
Our plan is to delay SS until 70, assuming that the system is basically the same as it is today when we reach eligibility. Currently by delaying SS you get about 8% increase each year you wait after 67 (or you lose about 8% for each year you take it early, back to 62). It's a hedge too - if we need SS money at 62, then it's there to take.Quote:
Originally Posted by OldSteve
Benny - there are a ton of places to live that are near good skiing, without being in a "ski town" that is nothing more than an expensive tourist destination. I'm in Reno, which for all its drawbacks, has a lot of outdoor activities and Tahoe skiing. SLC has even better skiing, but carries other pros and cons. No reason to conclude that every ski area is Aspen and therefore unaffordable and full of obnoxiously rich trust funders.
I agree with you but suggest that low cost way to live doesn't have to mean poverty or avoiding the activities that are what I live to do. Just means giving it some thought and planning better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Reno made my girlfriend cry.
Infected piercing or misspelled tattoo?Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Reno: the classiest little big city.
Reno on the cheap with Benny.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Because he shot a man there just to watch him die.
He's a local, you know.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Heh. Bunny funhee is the gift that keeps on giving.
Yeah, of course, living within your means is key, both before and after retirement. Most of those who managed to get to the number without an inheritance have that figured out. That is, those non-trustfunders who managed to save the number likely lived well within their means, and those who lived above their means during their working lives are less likely to have saved sufficiently to fund retirement.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Spending patterns/habits are at least as important as revenue. One of my former law partners often made 2X what I made in a typical year, yet he saved little or nothing because he spent what he made eating out, flying first class, expensive vacations, etc. I used to tell him that the fastest way to fill a bucket is to plug the holes.
"Ski town" is an ambiguous term. Bunny seems to use it to mean expensive touristy ski towns where rich people have 2nd (or 3rd, 4th or 5th) homes. But there are lots of affordable towns close to good skiing and other mountain activities but which lack the trappings of touristy ski towns. it aint that hard to find one.
You might want to take a look at FIREcalc: https://www.firecalc.comQuote:
Originally Posted by zion zig zag
It's specifically for those seeking Financial Independence / Retire Early. Basically it takes your savings as of your retirement date, looks at your planned spending and expected returns, and sees how you would have fared in the investment markets over the last hundred years or something like that. I don't recall the exact time period considered, but it's something like that. E.g., "would someone with this financial profile retiring in 1970 have outlived their money, or ran out? How about 1971? How about 1972?" etc.
The FIRE rabbit hole goes pretty deep online, there is lots to look at / read about. Somewhat similar to other folks here, I'm coming up on what I thought was my number and no longer sure that it's enough...the human condition in a nutshell, amirite?
Regular ongoing expenses are the bitch. I don't owe anybody a penny but have bills coming out my ass every month. You have to make all that money just to get started.
break fewer hips!
ha. I'll do my best.Quote:
Originally Posted by wyeaster
I plugged in some numbers. The year-by-year portfolio graph shows an ending worth range from $500K to $6.5 million, which is kinda worthless. OTOH, the average numbers per this firecalc link confirm that the average cost of "basic cost of living" for an average retired American couple is alot less than many on this thread are assuming.Quote:
Originally Posted by dan_pdx
Huh? Aren't bills evidence that you owe money? -- unless you are the one sending out the bills.Quote:
Originally Posted by iceman
Moving from Seattle to E o' the Cascades has resulted in 1/3 reduction of bills, e.g., insurance premiums, utilities, garbage/recycling (I haul our own now).
If you want to get serious about paring down spending and prioritizing use of money, check out this site: Mr. Money Mustache — Early Retirement through Badassity.
The book Possum Living represents lowest to the ground living, not for many, but for everyone a reality check re needs vs. wants and finding value in things that are free or very inexpensive -- and a run read: https://www.vice.com/sv/article/yvnv...-die-298-v17n1 Note that that author, Dolly Freed, is a birdwatcher, a no-cost activity that brings great value to those who embrace it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldSteve
I'm happy to have amused you this holiday season, counselor. Am I funny like a fucking clown?
Ski Town is not an ambiguous term in my book. Maybe yours. My definition, is, simply, no more than thirty minutes (and that's stretching it) to the lift on a powder day. Also, the place is filled with skiers, and the people who work in the industry that lives off those local skiers, and the visiting skiers.
Now, you are arguing from the world of the abstract, I assume, but, with that criteria, lets evaluate specific locations. Vermont: Affordable in towns close to good hills, so, that's a possibility. But, it's Vermont. Do you really want to live in that state? Fake snow, mud season, black fly season, heroin everywhere, even, I'll betcha, near some ski hills, from the look of things. I never got ski bumming in Vermont, and the rampant poverty and drug addictions over the past decade has just made things worse. You'll always be saying, shit, I could be living in Colorado. So, Colorado: well, please, find me a shitty old two bedroom condo less than a half million near any decent ski hill, and I'll pay you a 5% finders fee. No scumbags and dirtbags and crazies as next door neighbors. Something that doesn't need six figures of work to withstand the next twenty years. No, I'm not living in Georgetown. Or Pagosa Springs. Givemeabreak. Taos gives me the creeps, and I always lock shit. SLC is affordable, but, I grew up in New Jersey, so, I ain't moving to some Mormon filled version of it. From what I can see, there is no town above Ogden, and, sorry about Ogden. Jackson? No. Like Aspen, or even Carbondale. No. Idaho? Don't really know, but, I'm skeptical there's affordable stuff outside of Boise, and, I'm not living in Boise.
The only place I've found is Driggs, and that's only for the winter. I road bike, not mtb, so I need that in warm weather. Sucks over there. Sucks in most places out west. And that's a longer season.
So, you tell me counselor. Find me this affordable nirvana. The clown is all ears.
I have no debt but plenty of tax, insurance, utility, HOA, landscaping, etc. etc. etc. billsQuote:
Originally Posted by OldSteve
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...1-90987#photo8Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Well, that took 30 seconds.
You're very white, I see. Do you work for a living?Quote:
Originally Posted by zion zig zag
Well for starters, it seems you're working with a restrictive definition of "skiing" to include only lift-served skiing. For many, skiing includes XC skiing, ski touring and hippy sticking (fishscaling on Forest Service roads). Per that broader definition, there are 10 or 20 or 50 times more qualifying towns within 30 minutes of good skiing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Second, you've restricted your definition of "good skiing" to powder days. Pow days are great, but all skiing is fun, and some non-pow days qualify as great. Some of the best skiing in our part of the world is corn snow touring in May and June. And most retirees I know in their 60s and 70s seem to have plenty o' fun on groomers. Key to happiness #1: low expectations.
Third, in view of our ostensible agreement that controlling costs is the key, I gotta push back at your 30 minute to powder requirement. See above re restricting "good skiing" definition to powder only. Furthermore, because (we agree) cost is key, 40 or 45 minutes to powder skiing is fine if that's what it takes to be in a place with an affordable cost of living -- and that's even more true if XC skiing, touring and hippy sticking is 15-30 minutes away. If you're retired, what is the problem with an additional 15 minutes of driving?
Not true of most towns in the West that are proximate to good skiing. Only an NYC ski tourist would think that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Wrong wrong wrong. The road biking in central and E OR and WA is outstanding, as good as any in the U.S., better than anything in the E U.S. I know a bit about this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
The only thing Driggs has going for it over Boise is Targhee, which is a great hill, but everything else tips in favor of Boise. Have you actually spent time in the Boise area? I could live there, although I prefer central WA for access to much longer spring/summer touring season, better mountain travel after ski season and better road cycling.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Conclusion: You are working with limited information, restrictive definitions of "skiing" and impaired by preexisting bias. Take a lap.
I like simple drawdown calculator to play with.
https://www.calcxml.com/calculators/...-my-money-last
Well I do live in Ogden.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
But anyway, shall I quote your post again? You made the terms, pay up.
That's gotta be more than $37
My wife too. Her exact words were "no way am I living in this brown dirt pile of nothingness that is full of meth heads".Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Me, "but it is cheap and close to Tahoe"
Her, :nonono2:
Total fail, counselor. You know why? "The only thing Driggs has over Boise is Targhee." Jezuz. 500 inches plus average, vs, what, strip malls and fucking Bogus.Quote:
Originally Posted by OldSteve
No, you take two laps.
Great tool. thxQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
It's not about how much money is left at the end of your life, that's tangential to the question here -Quote:
Originally Posted by OldSteve
it's the % of scenarios in which you run out of money. From the site: For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 50 years. FIRECalc found that 15 cycles failed, for a success rate of 82.8%.
I'm also a Moneymustache reader, though I have been doing a lot of face punchable things lately like pay for dogsitting.
I was so naive. I gave her a hug and said, don't worry baby, just shopping. I'm on your side. And that was when homes were still at the bottom from the crash. No state taxes. I even went to see those brand new Del Webb homes west of town, right on 80. Awesome values, and perfect size. But, it was all dirt.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
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Firecalc and cfiresim are both variations on the same type of FIRE calculator. I like Firecalc more.
Both let you project likely success or failure rates for future withdrawal %'s. I think it's helpful for planning.
There are a ton of FIRE sites with helpful info. The Money Mustache site is one, there's one from JL Collins with a good investment series of posts, and the Bogleheads site has a very good wiki on investments and portfolios.
500" is baked into "only thing Driggs has over Boise is Targhee." Duh. Strawman shit. Re your other comments, it's obvious that you haven't spent much time in and around Boise. Boise proper is coming into its own, has places with a nice vibe, cool music scene, emerging artsy fartsy community, 10 times more livable than anything in Driggs. Some people call Boise "the new Portland." : ) Anyway, Boise is down on my list of cities/towns proximate to skiing, so far down the list that it's irrelevant to me. But it's way the fuck better than Driggs. ETA: Urban, hip Boise defies potato jokes and other Idaho stereotypesQuote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
BTW, yesterday was ski day 25 for the season. How many you got?
Ha! Coming from the guys who just said Taos gives him the creeps. Not white enough for you there Benny?Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackstraw
Taos was full of junkies way before Vermont. And, yeah, I don't want to live in a place where the population is pissed off people of color that don't like you. I did that in my twenties, when I had the energy. But, I gotta admit, some of the coolest music I've heard around lifts and bars over the past few years is in that town. Nice mix.
I spend more time in Reno these days. Riff raff can be totally avoided and the neighborhoods west of 395 off 431 are pretty nice. Mt Rose estates, Galena forest, Montreux. Well stocked groceries and a Whole Foods near by.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Cool to see you Firecalc getting posted. www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence and the Bogleheads forums are also great resources.
A 4% safe withdrawal rate seems to be a pretty good bet for never running out of money. For a given lump sum of money that is invested, you can withdrawal 4% per year and not run out of money in your lifetime. Look up the Trinity study for more info.
So, if Iceman spends $120k per year, he needs to have $3MM invested to support that lifestyle. If Benny wants to retire a skitown to the tune of $60k per year in total expenses, he needs to have $1.5MM invested.
This assumes zero SSQuote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
There's an obvious tension between Whole Foods and cutting overhead in retirementQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Good prices on cheese and decent beef. Food is not a place I want to cut costs. I rarely eat out. There is an excellent Raley's not 20 minutes from Mt Rose. Do I love Reno? No.. But, it is tax efficient, inexpensive, and has access to winter and mountain sports without having to shovel too much. Lake in summer. Hard to beat really.Quote:
Originally Posted by OldSteve