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Out of utilities telecom reits. Short it through puts. Economy is improving, fed looking for any reason to raise (June...though would be a small raise) , get out of intermediate yield plays. I think longer term long end of curve is still ok as there's limited opportunity still.
Will be interesting to see how prospect of higher short term rates is already priced into equity market. I don't think it'll be that bad overall - already just 1% today? That's it?
The dollar is going parabolic. Another big move today.
I now have to get to work before 05:30 to avoid traffic in the 238/880/92 corridor. Hasn't been this busy since 1999.
Does it get better? Maybe. All said and done the SP500 is unchanged since November. I'm watching EWC (unhedged Canada ETF). It yields 2.5% and is flat over the last five years.
Lots of yield stocks breaking down as well as Junk. ATT could get to 6% yield. Brock is right. Utilities getting crushed.
Phase 1 to $47 complete. Looking like a bumpy road to a $44 retest is on tap.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bromontana
http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980ca...f13b78a518.png
Buck six to buy a euro today. Parity around the corner?
Some smart Forex people say below parity. Benny's going to Europe in the fall.
Yep...time to start booking that euro trip!Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Just stay away from packages that price in dollars. I'm watching some bike tour companies that aren't dropping their prices at all, although the Euro has dropped 30% in a year or so. Nice hidden profit.Quote:
Originally Posted by peck257
I have noticed a lot of Canadians doing that as well
http://cponline.thecanadianpress.com...lar-012815.png
Fuck, might be time to go back to Montreal for a trip.
Monitoring the overall oil basket it seems like we're still a good 10% off the bottoms of December, been accumulating a little here and there around the low $40s WTI support. Definite possibility the sector goes another leg lower if WTI descends into the $30s for more than a few days. If that happens I'll let stops handle themselves and re-position lower. Raising stops in $PVA, stopped out of $OAS due to volatility. Keeping tight stops on everything except $AAPL and looking to keep re-positioning on the long side of oil.
If we shoot over $50 in the next month I'll be cutting all long oil exposure and likely just wait for another trough to accumulate. Chipping away at the brow beating in Feb :)
4Matic/Brock - what have you been seeing lately? I started buying index (SPY) and AAPL banking on an eventual rally this year and trying to get good positions near support @ $205 level.
Last night/today's DWTI trade, so much range for intraday.. PVA from the 6s to 7s range lately has been very good. Trading much better this past month, over the Feb loss and managing risk a lot better.
http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980ca...4afbb9dd88.png
International markets are very strong and they are holding up the SPY. "Liquidity" in the bond and currency markets (and oil for that matter) is a big risk. Bill Gross and Howard Marks both talked about mispricing and liquidity or lack of it in their recent summaries. I particularly like Marks' comments about the expectations of a liquid market.
Treasury rates can go much lower.
The big rally in SPY on Monday was on very good volume so I expect it to test that high and go higher but I'm not buying it
The "flash crash" on Tuesday night was the first overnight volatility in a long time. Not sure what it means.
Tell me about this: https://www.wealthfront.com/
"There is a massive gap right now between asset prices and fundamentals." -M El-Erian on being in cash primarily. http://www.ocregister.com/articles/p...an-people.html
and this was amusing:Quote:
Q. Why write a book on central banks?
A. This is a historic period in which central banks are the only game in town when it comes to policy. But central banks do not have the tools to deliver what the global economy needs. We need more potent reinvigorated growth models.
The West fell in love with the wrong growth models 10 years ago. It fell in love with finance as an enabler of prosperity. The whole society fell in love with leverage and credit as a way of prospering. We were entitled to accumulate debt! People bought homes they could not afford. Governments borrowed money that they could not pay back.
Regulators believed that finance was so sophisticated that you could lessen regulations on it. This romance with the wrong growth model fell apart in 2007 and 2008.
Q. Now what?
A. We are struggling to find a new growth model because the political system hasn’t stepped up to its responsibilities. Obvious things like investing in infrastructure at extremely low interest rates are not being done. The reform of corporate taxation. The reform of labor markets – retraining workers, developing apprenticeships through public-private partnerships.
Either governments and politicians and companies will step up to their economic governance responsibilities and we will turn to something sustainable or, if we don’t, then you will have low growth and financial instability
Quote:
Q. According to Bloomberg, Pimco had a 2013 bonus pool for its 60 managing directors of almost $1.5 billion. Does that make sense?
A. I’m not going to talk about that.
Their tax loss harvesting posted strategy only goes back to year 2000 which puts the strategy at a considerable advantage as it starts with a three year high alpha period and as they state it works best during periods of down markets when you can take advantage of large losses.Quote:
Originally Posted by iceman
Since 2000, this tax-loss harvesting strategy produced an average annual Tax Alpha of 1.35% and was most valuable in major down markets.
Strategy is only efficient for after tax accounts.
It's not outrageous by Wall Street or Fashion Island standards. PTTRX had over a $1 trillion AUM and at .75% expense is $7.5b in simple fees.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bromontana
https://investments.pimco.com/Products/pages/346.aspxQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
$1 trillion?
I should have checked. I knew PTTRX was just one class but I misremembered the whole thing..Quote:
Originally Posted by huckbucket
Although, two classes of Total Return are in the top bracket:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...der_management
The number just stood out to me because I didn't think any one fund broke $1 trillion yet. Maybe I'm wrong.
All funds total are something like $16 trillion, so that would be one fuggin huge fund at $1 trillion.
Sure, considering how much they manage (near $2 trillion at its peak, I believe) it's a drop in the bucket. El-Erian was talking a lot about wealth inequality earlier in the interview, so when the bonus question came up it was funneh.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Future Advisor, Personal Capital, Wealthfront, and Betterment are all very similar and mostly buy low fee index ETFs for you and add value by re-balancing regularly and making tax optimizations. Grade their fees and functionality carefully. These are growing in popularity amongst folks with some money to grow but not enough scratch to meet the thresholds for hands on personal wealth management. Schwab and Vanguard are rolling our their versions. Wealthfront in particular has focused on the start up and tech world in Silicon Valley - getting people with huger allotments of a single stock and helping them diversify and reduce risk tax efficiently. They all seem pretty smart. The differentiator for Personal Capital is the human advisory service they offer paired with a holistic vew of all your accounts, assets, and liabilities. Future Advisor's trick is that they plug into your existing TD or Fidelity accounts and harmonize them to meet your risk tolerance, tax efficiencies, and other factors.Quote:
Originally Posted by iceman
I evaluated a Wealthfront versus Betterment a year and a half ago and parked a few bucks with Betterment. They have drastically underperformed the S&P500, but others may be happier. I have tinkered with Personal Capital and like their account tracking service, but I do not pay for their advisory service. Future Capital would be fun to play with if I had TD or Fidelity accounts, but I'm not moving my money there for an experiment.
Thanks. It seems to me that for a .25% management fee getting Wealthfront (it's the only one I've looked at so far) to hold your Vanguard (or other index fund) money and get the tax losses is pretty much a no-brainer at least until Vanguard et al. come out with competing products, no? In other words if you are going to be in indexes anyways...
What is the benchmark of the portfolio? Did they tell you SP500? From what I read Wealthfront benchmarks target date funds appropriate to your risk tolerance.Quote:
Originally Posted by Platinum Pete
I'm running on Betterment. They did not tell me SP500 is the benchmark, but I use that as a comparison since it was just as easy for me to put my money into the SPY ETF through my Vanguard account. My settings on Betterment (if I recall correctly) were a 5 year timeline with a very high risk tolerance.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic