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this persistent High Pressure over the west is frustrating. This Omega high just seems to not want to break apart. As long as it sits there and the storms ride up and over the ridge and south from Canada all we'll get is little tiny snow amounts if anything. Seems like it has to break down soon, the damn thing has been so strong for so long.
So far Gratzo's call for this storm around Vail seems right on. Very light fluffy snow, blows off your car easy. About 1", maybe 2" here in Eagle Vail. Unconfirmed verbal reports of 4" at Beaver Creek.
Far out still, but Nida could help bring about something big 12/8 to 12/15. Tahoe area looks to get slammed but hopefully we get some leftovers.
Link to the animated gif below:
http://amsu.cira.colostate.edu/TPW/global.htm
http://amsu.cira.colostate.edu/TPW/17.gif
I took some turns on Vail Mountain today....
4-6" in places. Super light fluffy stuff. Very easily moved by the wind. Some places where it collected at the top of chair 2 trees was @ low calf....
It was pretty fun. Hopefully the long range moisture forecast holds up and we get some more this weekend/early next week.
The models tend to underestimate snow just a little bit with these very cold storms. It's not a big deal (is there a big difference between 2" and 4"? not so much), but it's worth noting. Super fluffy snow indeed. 7" at my place in Boulder...fun to shovel.
The storm on Mon/Tues looks pretty good, actually. Initially better (though heavier) snow for the San Juans and Elks, then focus of snow shifts north toward I-70 areas and Steamboat by Tuesday(ish). Still a ways off, but confidence is building. Just in time (not really) for my hut trip this Saturday night to Polar Star.
There are hints of another, weaker storm later next week, and then perhaps something around the 13-15th.
The atmosphere is not locked into a nice west-to-east pattern, so it's about as angry as an old Jewish man sending back soup in a deli (thanks Seinfeld). Until the atmosphere settles down, the longer range models likely won't be too helpful. I am NOT very knowledgable about long range forecasting, but am trying to learn as I really just focus on the next 3 to maybe 7 days.
JOEL
Ummm....George never said anything about the man being Jewish...
How did that pop into your mind? :rolleyes2:wink:
Quote:
Originally Posted by gratzo
everybody wash their cars, crank up the ULLR thread, burn skis....something is brewing
I'll stoke the fire a bit
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/pre.../p_threats.gif
I'll wash my car this weekend.Quote:
Originally Posted by WFO GJT
Wash that mutherfucker, and mine too. Keep dreaming. BTW, this is the most symmetrical image I've seen in years:
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/a...1&d=1259817757
You guys wash your cars, I'm burning skis! Not necessarily as a sacrifice to Ullr, but as a means to keep warm (currently -7F at my house). Brrrrrr......
::cues up Seven Below from Albany night II::
Ha! The Jewish thing is just ingrained...too much time with the relatives in South Florida at weddings and bar mitzvahs this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by F.D.V.
Looks like I-70ish and north could get some bonus snow on Sunday. Then focus for heaviest snow shifts down to Aspen/CB and the San Juans on Mon into Tuesday. By Tues into Wed, looks like the best snow shifts back north to I-70 and higher after the trough passes.
Models are coming into line on this one...best confidence is a pretty good southern and central event Mon-Tue, but Sun and Tue/Wed could also make areas along I-70 and north happy.
Glad to hear Vail had 4"ish...I'll be there Thurs for a business ski meeting, which is better than a business cubicle day (although the temp likely won't get above 5-10).
Word today from a bro on the race course at the beav, they canceled birds of prey practice, too much snow on the course...
looking past this upcoming storm, both the 12z and 00z EC had significant westerlies punching through towards the end of next week with the 12z about twelve hours quicker.
practice wasn't cancelled but they had to practice only on the lower sections due to snow up high. 5" at the Beav in 2 days is pretty good and Vail officially got 2" in two days. It is cold outside....-5 at my house this morning and kinda windy, almost felt like I was back in Montana when I took the dogs out...almost.
Looks like everybody should get in on the act early next week. The SW flow usually means late arriving snow for Vail, but with the atmosphere already primed from snow on Sunday, that could mean good snow there too. Stoked that snow is in the forecast.
On a side note, would love to see Bode, Ted, and Steve capture the podium this weekend.
It should be an interesting event as the flow is even a bit more westerly. In addition with the significant cold air in place, and the overriding moisture, it won't take much to get the snowfall going.Quote:
Originally Posted by montanaskier
ULLR AKBAR! ULLR AKBAR! :yourock:
Quote:
Originally Posted by gratzo
$$$$$$$$:yourock:$$$$$$$$Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
Folks...l pretty much concur. Northern and Central mountains look good for Sunday, Southern and Central mountains look good for Mon/Tue. Updated forecast here: http://www.coloradopowderforecast.co...snow-sun-tues/
Sneak Peek:
http://www.coloradopowderforecast.co...ring-it-on.jpg
I like how you say Central Mountains Sunday and Mon/Tues.Quote:
Originally Posted by gratzo
The Bring it On Reference is the Lulz. Nice to see that the Sunday storm may reach advisory criteria. I still think (and hope) the Monday-Tuesday storm could be a good producer for the southern lower mountains (Vail Pass area) as the presence of the jet, good dynamics and the cold air in place will help to overcome poor orographic flow. The EC still taps into way more moisture than the GFS...
I've been disappointed too many times at Vail in a good setup with poor orographic flow from the southwest. The Beav and maybe some mountains S and SW of Vail could do a bit better, but my better bet for Mon-Tue is Aspen/CB/Silverton/Wolf Creek. The snow might hang around longer on Sunday, favoring Vail and north. But the big action on Monday and Tues still looks south of Vail. Bottom line is by next Tuesday, most areas west of Summit Co. should see at least a foot, with maybe over two feet down in the San Juans. Summit could do OK, but doubt they'll see more than 8-10".Quote:
Originally Posted by Rontele
Although I'm excited, I like to ramp up expectations over time, rather than tone down the forecast. That said, wish I could take off of work on Mon/Tue and hit the good pow down south!
Just taste the soup, will ya?
Fine I'll taste the soup. where's the spoon?
A-cha! Hahahaha. A-cha! Eh, whaddaya know from funny ya bastards.
BRING THE PAIN OLD MAN WINTER
While these little storms will help a bit, what we really need is a good 24"-36" type of storm. Or at least a week long cycle that drops 4' or so. Shit is too thin out there and the 6" storms aren't going to do much.
Thanks for the very detailed forecasts (and the emails/blogposts). When I was living in surf locations I could read swell maps and wind fetch maps with ease always knowing what break and what day to go out. These wacky rockies just screw up everything I know about predicting fun though. I read most of your posts like, "uh, cool, so where in summit county should I go then" but I'm trying to learn. So thanks to all you actual contributers. I'll hit up basin or loveland on Tuesday unless one of you guys tells me someplace else will be better, I'm a sheep like that.