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Forecast isn't looking any better. PLEASE read and listen to Tremper.
When he says "I'm very worried about today through this weekend and I think it will take a miracle for us to get through the next few days without another avalanche fatality."
I sure as hell hope people will listen.
http://utahavalanchecenter.org/advisory/slc
I believe in miracles.
The push will come when the weather clears, after the weekend.
I like this part of the avy forecast:
"Snow should begin falling in earnest around noon and we should get 12-20 inches of snow by late on Saturday. Temperatures will plunge down to just below zero after the front passes and we will likely get lake effect squalls on a northwest to westerly flow tonight. Saturday should be continued snow and Sunday looks like partly cloudy with light snow showers.
The extended forecast: This storm will seem like a baby compared to the next couple storms, one on Monday and Tuesday and the other the day after Christmas. We should have feet and feet of new snow by the weekend after Christmas."
I was watching this video that the Avi Center put out for some pits they dug up in Cardiff & Toledo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdoqS3unrjk
That looks like quite a persistent weak layer in there. Will it most likely haunt us for the rest of the season, or is it still too early to tell?
I haven't been out latley because of a broken heel, but skied after the rain event that caused this layer. I think we are in trouble for a while, with the rain crust and facets beneath it there should be a cause for concern. Hopefully everything flushes out, but I don't think we will be that lucky. Everyone please be careful, stick to low angle heavily treed terrain for a bit to see what type of impact these next few storms have. This season hasn't started off well, we don't need to read any more bad news.Quote:
Originally Posted by ski_adk
well just a quick look while skiing at basin today there were some pretty nasty lookin wind slabs on top of last weeks new snow.. wasnt anything near the facets down low... be carefull if you head bc people we dont need more accidents
Great video. I know that I won't be skiing any wasatch B.C. with a pitch >25 degrees anytime soon.
BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!
Or with any pitch steeper than 35ish degrees anywhere above you.......propogation kills. It almost killed me literally in my backyard when I lived at Bear Lake.Quote:
Originally Posted by schindlerpiste
We will see a large widespread cycle shortly... capt. obvious here.
Snobird obvs:
Easy 3-4" inches an hour post frontal, with 50+ mph sustained frontal winds. I was standing on the leeward side of a ridge @snowbird today that was depositing 1"+ of snow per 10 minutes. shit you not. Today it was snowing pretty much as hard as it snows in LCC. Always fun to be a part of.
I'm seeing water weights of .25-.56". Doesn't seem the end of the world is eminent to me. But then, I heard the sky is falling and learned about the boy that cried wolf as a child.
Best to hold off as snow amounts build.
I mean, what'll happen if 2.0 or 2.5" are the totals?
+++ANTI-JINX+++
But doesn't this sound schweet:
"It looks like we will have a break on Sunday with partly cloudy skies and a 30 percent chance of snow with continued cold temperatures. Then, another system impacts Utah with an even larger storm starting late Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday, which looks like it will deposit significant amounts of snow. Then another large storm arriving for Christmas and lasting for a couple more days. We should have feet and feet of new snow in the mountains by the end of the month."
That sounds like the typical shit they say right before storms fizzle and split around us.
I had to head down at about 1ish, about the time the front rolled though, or at least the crazy snowfall part. That was intense. I'll agree with the 3-4" per hour, most of the way down the canyon. Between 2:30 and 3:30, 4" fell on my car in Cottonwood Heights.Quote:
Originally Posted by pointedem
my thoughts exactly...do you trust the models or emperical data?Quote:
Originally Posted by zion zig zag
Quote:
Originally Posted by alias
Why wait?
http://chadspectorphoto.com/coppermi...9-_MG_7985.jpg
http://chadspectorphoto.com/coppermi...9-_MG_8031.jpg
http://chadspectorphoto.com/coppermi...9-_MG_8043.jpg
Having a hard time trying to figure why the pc ridges have been avalanching.
http://www.wowasatch.com/pictures/Wi.../usa-scour.jpg
Any ideas?
That happens in Utah? I thought it only happened here in MT.Quote:
That sounds like the typical shit they say right before storms fizzle and split around us.
Happens every time we get a "winter storm warning". It's for sure it's fizzling and splitting when they give the warning. Hopefully when this one splits around you guys we get some here!
The dancing cloud sheep thingies blew all the snow over the ridge?Quote:
Originally Posted by wra
nice Jinx:wink:
Well, it certainly can't be the perfect pitch, or the 40+ mile per hour winds, or the rain crust, or all that beautiful fluffy snow that has fallen (or been blown) on top of that crust...
Have you seen SquareTop lately? Huge natural slide Thursday night. (900' wide 1500' vert)
Better it happen in PC than anywhere with anything worth skiing.
Huge natural in MB cirque at the Basin the other day.
We skied the N. Lomond powder circuit today, winds were going nuclear above treeline. Stiff slabs forming on east thru north facing slopes below ridge-lines. Lots of whomping with whole slopes collapsing. The low angle stuff is still skiing well in sheltered areas.
In other news I really like the extended column test, it gives a good feel for the weak layer and the propagation potential.
Hell, I thought maybe the snake oil man wuz up on 10420 filming more vids for the medicine show.Quote:
Originally Posted by schindlerpiste
Didn't see Squaretop. Did manage to find a few slides. One about 600' wide?
http://www.wowasatch.com/pictures/Wi...down-crown.jpg
No ects were done.
http://www.tetongravity.com/ubb/eek.gif
The light in that photo is awesome. Nice work wra.
This is either ignorant or clever.Quote:
Originally Posted by truth
I have to second that quote. Did you adjust the photo, or was it just shot that way. Either way it looks cool!Quote:
Originally Posted by truth
I was going for sarcasm.Quote:
Originally Posted by alto
Bwah maybe a little over the top there but reading responses to threads like this oneQuote:
Originally Posted by wra
http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/s...d.php?t=144530
you would think the entire wasatch was above treeline and steeper than
30 degrees. Not saying shit aint dicey, but if you do get out there is some great snow science edumacation conditions.
Somebody should make a safe skiing in the wasatch book only it wouldn't sell cause gnar and sex sells.
Sweet pic Wow
I'd buy that book. I was thinking last night how I don't know of any meadow skipping stashes in the SLC, PC area.Quote:
Originally Posted by skifishbum
Wasatch tours Volume 2Quote:
Originally Posted by ski_adk
'Figured you were just jealous. Dumped in Orem today, I hope Provo Canyon stays open or I'm heading to the liquor store for some warm beer and sleeping at the office. Great day to drive into work...saw a gnarly wreck this morning.Quote:
Originally Posted by truth
No PICS because wind and white out conditions today
Skinned up Mill-D 10:30am from the Spruces, took a run on short swing then headed up to Dog Lake and then up the ridge to Reynolds Pk.(Southwest summit from Dog Lake). Anyhoo, once I hit the ridge the wind was nuking and viz went to -O- Zero. I took a run NE then skinned back up to the summit then back out the skinner as to see my way back into the Mill-D home loop.
Still low snow on the North Side of BCC but some stashes were located with a little extra skinning. There is a prominent skinner all the way to the summit
Sunday column test from the top of Short Swing if anyone's interested. Soft slab forming up there from the recent wind. At least the columns didn't fail before isolation....
so where is the prediction located that says it's going to snow 6 feet before New Years? Someone posted that on Facebook and I am hoping...well I won't tell you what I'm hoping, but put it this way: I leave and it starts DUMPING. Of course, but that happens to everyone right?
Info that may actually be of some use.
http://www.wowasatch.com/pictures/Wi...ow-profile.jpg
link to observation
Cause everyone else's info is just shit, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by wra
I learned from Spread Eagle's post. I learned absolutely nothing from the video showing shovel taps in an area that had no snow prior to last week.
You don't have to look ya know, especially since I'm not an ecter, nor do I pay much attention to fluff and facade.
Top collins station shows .65" inches of H20 so far. Still Nuking when I got down at 5ish, should see some more by morning but I still don't know if the weight will be there for a mojor cycle. Till then I guess conitions will remain hair-trigger. I do know it was at least 3" an hour up there all afternoon. Seemed like this could be the storm of the season so far. We'll see if round 2 hits tonight or it peters out. So far it was pretty light and sloughy in spite of the high winds most of the day.
Good skiing though.
I observed the IceGrom had grown like 12 inches over the summer and isn't scorin face shots as easy.
http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y19...ski/ss2982.jpg
Didn't learn all that much for these shots but they bring a hudge smile to my face similar to the one on this young lads face as he breaks in his season on a new pair of 164 bros
http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y19.../ski/ss302.jpg
http://fritzrips.com/Gallery1/albums...re_2.sized.jpg
http://chadspectorphoto.com/coppermi...9-_MG_8031.jpg
I'm not a snow nerd like you guys, so I don't know much about this stuff. Have some questions:
I don't understand the long term implications of a rain crust layer, once the faceted snow rounds out and bonds, the rain crust isnnt really an issue is it? Or will that rain crust keep a higher temperature gradient in the snow pack, making it take longer for the snow to bond?
kthnxbye