Juneau Mags: PLEASE read this, MASSIVE avi danger related
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Danger rated as 'extreme' for avalanche
JUNEAU: 60 homes, a hotel and the harbor are in a hazardous path.
By ANNE SUTTON
The Associated Press
Published: March 22, 2007
Last Modified: March 22, 2007 at 07:49 AM
JUNEAU -- A snowstorm this week sealed a winter snowfall record in Juneau and prompted city officials to warn residents of extreme danger from avalanches.
Though the threat level remained extreme, forecasters said the probability of avalanches was slightly lower Wednesday because precipitation was less than expected overnight. But they warned continued high winds and rain could still set off slides from a heavy snowpack on Mount Juneau.
More than 60 homes, a hotel, a busy boat harbor and several roadways, including sections of Egan Expressway, are considered at risk from several avalanche paths sweeping Mount Juneau.
As of 4 a.m. Wednesday, a new city record for snowfall was set. This year's 194.6 inches to date edged the record set in the winter of 1964-1965 by three-tenths of an inch.
The city Tuesday night warned residents of the two neighborhoods most at-risk of avalanches from Mount Juneau to be prepared to leave their homes quickly.
"Those people in the runouts should be prepared. Avalanches can travel well over 100 mph so there will be little or no warning," said Capital City Fire and Rescue Chief Eric Mohrmann.
Mohrmann said the city cannot legally order an evacuation but he said residents should check the city's Web-based avalanche forecasting system and decide for themselves.
"We are trying to educate the public, advising them that there is this hazard which has been described as extreme at this point. They need to take due precautions, but it's their decision," he said.
Some residents are staying with friends or family until the danger lessens. And the city was offering shelter Wednesday night at a downtown youth center to residents without other accommodations.
Meanwhile, city crews have been gearing up for the worst-case scenario. Emergency Preparedness Director Mike Patterson said he had met with fire crews to go over response plans. Volunteer firefighters were told to keep their pagers on until the danger level was lowered.
City officials are relying on a new city-sponsored avalanche forecasting system, but Patterson said there is no certainty whether avalanches will let loose and whether they will have a long enough reach to threaten homes and lives.
"It depends on how the precipitation falls. If it's very heavy up high, that will load things up quickly, saturate everything, and that will very, very likely trigger avalanches somewhere. If it's a misty rain, it soaks in slower and can potentially stabilize the snow up there," Patterson said.
The most destructive slide in recent years occurred in March 1962 and caused severe to moderate damage to 17 homes and minor damage to 18 more. No one was badly injured in the slide, although damage included roofs blown off, chimneys snapped, houses pushed off their foundations and trees hurled through walls and roofs.
Moderate avalanches have been reported at regular intervals since then, damaging some homes.
But avalanche experts warn that it's just a matter of time before a big one.
"This definitely is a year that raises flags because you have a lot of snow from top to bottom that can get entrained in the avalanche, and that means it has much more power and runs farther and hits harder," said Jill Fredston of the Alaska Mountain Safety Center.
For the time being at least, the forecast will stay at the "extreme" level.
Southeast Alaska Avalanche Center director and lead forecaster Bill Glude said an avalanche control effort outside town persuaded him to keep it there.
A state avalanche control crew firing artillery shots from across Gastineau Channel at Mount Roberts brought down a slide that enveloped about 300 yards of a highway about two miles from downtown. Crews spent much of the day clearing the snow, which was as deep as 20 feet in places.
That slide, coupled with the ongoing threat of rain, prompted Glude not to lower the threat level "until the snowpack has more time to adjust," he wrote in an e-mail.
