Predictions

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03-07-2007, 11:33 AM
dre66

Reliability of W/B Snow Reports/Predictions

This morning I dragged my ass out of bed at 5:30 to skip classes for a promised 25cm of fresh at Whistler. The prospect of no lines and more fresh then we've had in a while (especially after this past weekend was a little too icy) was very enticing. Unfortunately after waiting around for the 6ish snow report and getting stoked it turned out to be no more then 9cm. This is a storm that two days ago had predicted 45cm and had predicted 25cm no more then 6 hours earlier... This isn't the first time that W/B has lied to me. I am sitting in my 9 o'clock class this morning feeling pretty pissed off. I don't work in the weather business but I was under the impression that these types of predictions were a little more accurate on such short notice.
03-07-2007, 11:45 AM
LeeLau

You realize that the forecasts are from Environment Canada right?

You realize that weather forecasts in the South Coast are notoriously unpredictable due to a variety of factors including the fact that ECanada have much less monitoring stations then other equivalent weather forecasters (eg NWAC)

I hope you're not looking for a career as a forecaster
03-07-2007, 11:51 AM
shirk

Quote:

Originally Posted by dre66

This morning I dragged my ass out of bed at 5:30 to skip classes for a promised 25cm of fresh at Whistler. The prospect of no lines and more fresh then we've had in a while (especially after this past weekend was a little too icy) was very enticing. Unfortunately after waiting around for the 6ish snow report and getting stoked it turned out to be no more then 9cm. This is a storm that two days ago had predicted 45cm and had predicted 25cm no more then 6 hours earlier... This isn't the first time that W/B has lied to me. I am sitting in my 9 o'clock class this morning feeling pretty pissed off. I don't work in the weather business but I was under the impression that these types of predictions were a little more accurate on such short notice.

http://i2.tinypic.com/263tweb.jpg

You suck....WB PROMISED ??? When has a weather forcast ever been a promise? You gotta be kiding me. You feel cheated and lied to? Suck it up Princess.
03-07-2007, 12:08 PM
dre66

don't feel cheated as much as want to know how much to rely on these in the future... i just didn't realize that 25cm could become 9cm in 6 hours...
03-07-2007, 12:16 PM
PNWbrit

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeeLau

You realize that the forecasts are from Environment Canada right?

Lee - do you think there's any manipulation of the WB forecasts. I'm always slightly dubious of the corporate sponsorship of their weather and avie also seems there is often timely downage of cameras and live temps.

I weep for you guys and the lack of detail you have compared to NWAC and NWS info for the cascades.
03-07-2007, 12:19 PM
Van_skier

Quote:

Originally Posted by dre66

don't feel cheated as much as want to know how much to rely on these in the future... i just didn't realize that 25cm could become 9cm in 6 hours...

You need to review your math and your expectations a little.
*the forecast called for 20-25cm (you seem to only like the higher estimate)
*6 hours? more like 16 between 2pm yesterday and the snow report this morning
*the report says 11cm.

There's another potential reason the snow report shows a low amount, but I won't discuss it here 'cause I'd rather a whinny little bitch like you get pissed off and stay off the snow...
03-07-2007, 12:26 PM
shirk

Quote:

Originally Posted by dre66

don't feel cheated as much as want to know how much to rely on these in the future... i just didn't realize that 25cm could become 9cm in 6 hours...

Forcasts are issued at 5am and 2pm daily. You have some funny math skills making 2pm yesterday to 6am today as only 6 hours.

Mount Washington stole the snow you were PROMISED. I would file a theft report with the RCMP.
03-07-2007, 12:45 PM
LeeLau

Quote:

Originally Posted by PNWbrit

Lee - do you think there's any manipulation of the WB forecasts. I'm always slightly dubious of the corporate sponsorship of their weather and avie also seems there is often timely downage of cameras and live temps.

I weep for you guys and the lack of detail you have compared to NWAC and NWS info for the cascades.

I doubt it. It's not worth it to them to lie. Local Vancouver resorts do that all the time but WB would be burned pretty quick if they deliberately falsify. The jetstream is a big influence on snow and temps and in the last decade has not been very predictable at all. Surprisingly this is even more true in summer where you watch it for marine forecasts.

hey - where's those spearhead pics? or whited out?
03-07-2007, 12:53 PM
dre66

Quote:

Originally Posted by Van_skier

You need to review your math and your expectations a little.
*the forecast called for 20-25cm (you seem to only like the higher estimate)
*6 hours? more like 16 between 2pm yesterday and the snow report this morning
*the report says 11cm.

There's another potential reason the snow report shows a low amount, but I won't discuss it here 'cause I'd rather a whinny little bitch like you get pissed off and stay off the snow...

You are right about the time of 2pm in the afternoon. my apologies. As for the new snow... the report said 9cm this morning at 6:07 and was updated since then. As for the other potential reason if you are referring to the fact that the snow is measured at mid mountain then I am aware of that, and since freezing level was so high that might have been a low number. Yeah I am being a whiny bitch... I just wanted to go skiing today and am a little pissed off.

EDIT: Honestly guys I apologize for my Jong-ish post... it was early and I was upset. I guess I just haven't earned the right to complain on TGR yet... I'll try back later.
03-07-2007, 01:11 PM
PNWbrit

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeeLau

I doubt it. It's not worth it to them to lie. Local Vancouver resorts do that all the time but WB would be burned pretty quick if they deliberately falsify. The jetstream is a big influence on snow and temps and in the last decade has not been very predictable at all. Surprisingly this is even more true in summer where you watch it for marine forecasts.

hey - where's those spearhead pics? or whited out?

Not underestimatng the complexity of our weather. Like I said I'm just spoiled I guess.

Yep - Spearhead stormed out by just about the nastiest weather I've ever seen. Hopefully rescheduled for end of March.
03-07-2007, 01:46 PM
LeeLau

Quote:

Originally Posted by PNWbrit

Hopefully rescheduled for end of March.

Get martin to throw in a camp at macbeth Iago col and bang out

-n face of fitzsimmons
-n face of macbeth
-n face of diavolo

That's a bunch of nice faces. Might be in fairy meadows then but if not couch space offer is still on
03-07-2007, 02:16 PM
powder11

if you looked at the fluctuations in the freezing levels over the past 24 hrs, you would see that it probably rained for awhile at the elevation where the snow data is collected (pig alley) and kept on dumping up in the alpine. w/b actually does a pretty good job of under reporting considering all snow data is collected at 1600 meters. my guess (I heard bombs going off up to 10am) is people are up there schralping 20+ cms in the alpine (probably more on north facing) whilst your sitting at home crying. smarten up jong!
03-07-2007, 06:59 PM
shirk

Quote:

Originally Posted by powder11

my guess (I heard bombs going off up to 10am) is people are up there schralping 20+ cms in the alpine (probably more on north facing) whilst your sitting at home crying. smarten up jong!

His Chi low fatte skim milk faux sweetner latte would have been served cold and the grooming would have been sub par today in the alpine, further more patrol is keeping all upper lifts closed for the weekend crowd. So today would have sucked as usual.
03-07-2007, 08:40 PM
Shaggy

So you're saying you looked at the snow report and bailed this morning? If you did, you missed out.

It was pissing rain here at base 2 when I woke up this morning, but the sound of the avy bombs going off were more than enough to motivate me to check it out. It was at least 20cm in some parts of the alpine.
03-07-2007, 09:18 PM
taynton

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaggy

So you're saying you looked at the snow report and bailed this morning? If you did, you missed out.

To be fair, it was a call that had to be made in Vancouver this morning, and 9cm (what the report said at the time) wasn't worth it to skip class. The plan was a 20cm rule, looks like we made the wrong call.

We better get our promissed 35 cm this weekend to fight with the hordes over :wink:

And yea, as far as forecasts and reporting goes, WB is one of the most accurate and fair reporters that I've skied, and one of few (the only?) mountain in Canada to have an independant alpine forecast.
03-07-2007, 11:34 PM
snoboy

Not the only: http://www.redresort.com/today/forecast/
03-08-2007, 01:18 AM
dre66

So turns out the snow was incredible today and I made a stupid mistake... more snow for you guys that were out there i guess. Hope it was sweet.
03-08-2007, 04:21 AM
powder11

Quote:

Originally Posted by dre66

So turns out the snow was incredible today and I made a stupid mistake... more snow for you guys that were out there i guess. Hope it was sweet.

dont rely on the w/b website to give you an accurate snow report. the alpine and lower mtn are two different worlds when it comes to snowfall. in the future you should keep an eye on freezing levels and precip. if its cold enough there will be deep snow up high.
03-08-2007, 12:41 PM
Schmitty BC

In my experience, if they say 10-20cm in 5 days, then two days later it will still be 5 days away. They always seem to keep pushing it back farther and farther. When they know a system is coming in the next week, they always predict it early then push it back.
03-08-2007, 01:19 PM
powder11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmitty BC

In my experience, if they say 10-20cm in 5 days, then two days later it will still be 5 days away. They always seem to keep pushing it back farther and farther. When they know a system is coming in the next week, they always predict it early then push it back.

"they" being environment canada, don't prosper at all by screwing ski bums around with bogus snowfall predictions. it should come as a surprise that a monster low pressure coming off the ocean is going to stall out a bit when it hits land.
03-08-2007, 03:21 PM
Schmitty BC

Quote:

Originally Posted by powder11

"they" being environment canada, don't prosper at all by screwing ski bums around with bogus snowfall predictions. it should come as a surprise that a monster low pressure coming off the ocean is going to stall out a bit when it hits land.

Yeah that's what I was getting at. These systems usually have a week window for when they typically come in. EC just always likes to predict for the start of that window. Hence why the dates can be pushed back a few days.
03-08-2007, 05:09 PM
rugbydave

in any case you missed out as did anyone who didn't get atleast one lap in Spanky's today before they closed GE...

as it's been said, freezing level is much more important than predicted snow amount
03-09-2007, 05:12 PM
Moss-Back

Can anyone supply specific beta for the actual conditions today? (as of Fri, 3:10PM)
I'm just across the border, strongly contemplating a day trip to WB tomorrow...
03-11-2007, 11:18 PM
vanisle

Quote:

Mount Washington stole the snow you were PROMISED

And they reported 4cm and we got 40!!
03-13-2007, 04:30 PM
Bring On The Snow

Quote:

Originally Posted by dre66

don't feel cheated as much as want to know how much to rely on these in the future... i just didn't realize that 25cm could become 9cm in 6 hours...

on the other hand ive seen a five to ten end up as 30cm

for instance im sitting in vancouver right now forcast this morning said possible showers and its pissing fucking rain and windy as hell.

weather forecasts for around here are rarely accurate.

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