EC Storm: 2/14-16

Printable View

02-12-2007, 09:52 AM
milton

EC Storm: 2/14-16

This could be our biggest dump of the season so far. It looks like everyone in interior NE will cash in on this one. The weather weenies originally had the coast getting hammered but looks like the storm will be tracking further north.

FXUS61 KBTV 121507
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1007 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FCST LKS TO BE ABOUT ON TRACK. ONLY A MINOR UPDATE ON WORDING.
.
.

.
..MAJOR SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.
.
.WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW SNOW RATIOS
/12:1-14:1/ DURING PERIOD OF MAX FORCING. SOME SHADOWING IS POSSIBLE ST. JOHNSBURY/LWR PASSUMPSIC VLY AREA...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT S+ WEDNESDAY AFTN BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE ACROSS THE REGION

INCLUDING 1-2 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. NNWWD EXTENDING INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND POSSIBLE FRONTOGENTIC/BANDED SNOW AXIS MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES EVEN FURTHER...BUT IT/S TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT IN THESE MESOSCALE BANDED STRUCTURES SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THEIR SPATIAL PLACEMENT. EXPECTING TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO BE VERY DIFFICULT MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. SOME MIX OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...AND HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 12+ INCHES OF SNOW /ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS/ GIVEN RELATIVELY SLOW SYSTEM MOTION...

and

Single Chair Weather Blog
02-12-2007, 09:58 AM
Smails

I was just thinking of getting a post going on this. I am stoked for this one b/c it sounded like it will actually happen. . . I hope.

Work will not be happening Wednesday, plus I got permission from the GF to "reschedule" valentines day! This f*cker better happen.

Keep us posted on the locals forecast for North/Central VT!!
02-12-2007, 10:02 AM
hikeitfirst

Quote:

Originally Posted by milton

This could be our biggest dump of the season so far. It looks like everyone in interior NE will cash in on this one. The weather weenies originally had the coast getting hammered but looks like the storm will be tracking further north.

[/URL]

ANTIJINX ANTIJINX ANTIJINX ANTIJINX ANTIJINX
02-12-2007, 11:56 AM
milton

I like this map:

(edit: guess we can't link the map, but the linky is below)

from: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index....owtopic=125483
02-12-2007, 12:43 PM
yodaottis

If I didn't have plans to drive across MA, across NY and up to Blue Mountain starting Wednesday night I'd be stoked!
Doubt I'll be able to make it out of MA at all Wed. night from the looks of it, but it's still hard to be negative about our first REAL storm...just ironic that it's timed so well.
02-13-2007, 10:39 AM
Boomer28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smails

I was just thinking of getting a post going on this. I am stoked for this one b/c it sounded like it will actually happen. . . I hope.

Work will not be happening Wednesday, plus I got permission from the GF to "reschedule" valentines day! This f*cker better happen.

Keep us posted on the locals forecast for North/Central VT!!

kudos on "rescheduling" v-day, I pulled the same move and was surprised at how well it went over.
02-13-2007, 11:43 AM
milton

update from NWS for VT:

000
FXUS61 KBTV 131547 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
OVERALL FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WINTER STORM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. ONLY TWEAK
TO FORECAST IS THE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS WARMING HAS BEEN
RATHER SLOW AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER THAN EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE WILL ALSO TEMPER
WARMING TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007/

..HISTORICALLY SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING -- SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED IN SOME SECTIONS...
.
.

You can read the whole thing here.

A couple maps to drool over as well, these should update themselves but you might need to do a refresh.

http://images.intellicast.com/Weathe..._None_anim.gif

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherIm...hic/sfcmap.gif
02-13-2007, 07:11 PM
blur

EC Storm

Anticipation is killing me, I can only swing one day off this week, was out west all last week so I am trying to dig out of my desk. I first was thinking tomorrow was the day, but with the high winds expected in the mountains, I fear wind hold & I am only good for four hikes up Lincoln Peak.

If you had to choose tomorrow or Thursday what would you go for. I plan on making the final call at 6 am tomorrow. If I wake to 6" and the wind is not scheduled to pick up untill the afternoon tomorrow may be the day.

Hopefully this will not be one of those 30" dumps with winds so high you cant find the 30 inches.

It will be a long night.