Call me a negative nanny...
but this weather sucks huge donkey balls - sorry for all you optimists out there but I need to unload my frustrations on the rest of you:cussing: :cussing: :nonono2: :cussing: :( ...from MRG's fox report:
Bad News Unleashed
January, 10th, 2006
One approach might be to not say anything at all, but that is what my mother used to tell me when I was pestering my sister. Honestly, I have nothing good to report and instead of following good motherly advice I am going to attempt to unload all of the bad news on this report as I can and hope that all subsequent news can be an improvement from that all important “relative” point of view. I wouldn’t be lying or exaggerating if I said this is as bad as it can look for January and now would be the perfect opportunity to stop reading if you hate talk of mild weather and rain because we will have to deal with both over the next two weeks at least. The pattern which confronts us has me convinced that there will be some locations along the east coast which will see a record January as far as the warmth is concerned. Later paragraphs will clarify why we are in such hot water, figuratively and almost literally, but from a global perspective the teleconnections that are often talked about in this column are at the almost complete antithesis of favorable.
Short Term Situation
We will not see any precipitation through Wednesday evening which means that we do have both Tuesday and Wednesday to enjoy the softened snow from the mountains existing base. It will be below freezing each of these mornings but I would expect readings to climb above the freezing mark by 11 am both days. Precipitation arrives later Wednesday most likely after dusk and will primarily fall in the form of rain. I know the weather service is currently using the terminology of “snow or rain” but I think this will change over the next 24-36 hours since this event will feature freezing rain in only very isolated locations and snow only at the very end of the event Thursday morning at the highest elevations with little if any accumulation. This won’t be a base buster as far as rain goes because precipitation is not expected to be heavy and is not expected to very long in duration.
MLK weekend and the potential wash-out
The aforementioned system has such a limited amount of cold air to work with that it looks more or less like a wave on a surface weather map with no real significant fronts. There is the remnants of an occluded front but temperatures in the wake of this system will actually become milder reaching into the 40’s Thursday and potentially breaking the 50-degree barrier at least at the base of the mountain on Friday (near record warmth). A more organized system will then approach for the MLK weekend and there isn’t much good to say about this either. Models are still somewhat at odds with how this system impacts the area but snow is very low on the list of possibilities; in fact, my guess at this point would be that it rains Saturday with very mild temperatures. The European does suggest that the system closes off farther south thus sparing the region most if not all of the rain (the best we can hope for). The American model deals us a catastrophic low blow with both heavy rain, high winds and high dewpoints, an event which would eat away at the base and a solution that seems a bit more likely as I mentioned. Stay tuned since the picture will become clearer on this by Wednesday or Thursday but there is a real risk for a major wash-out on Saturday. If we continue to follow the American model through to Sunday and Monday we would see a return to normal temperatures and perhaps a few inches of snow on top of the freezing ground Saturday night into Sunday morning accompanied by very high winds thanks to the strengthening and departing storm. Dry weather would then prevail later Sunday through Monday and winds would diminish by Monday morning. The other solution offered by the European would call for colder weather Sunday with not as much wind or snow and milder weather Monday with a slight chance for rain. Again I am leaning toward the American but I’ll have to further clarify this later in the week. Neither solution offers much in the way of snow and the limited snow and cold weather that the American Model is indicating for Monday occurs after a major rain event.
How this abhorrent situation came to be
The skinny on the pattern is that nothing is going our way. A long-wave trough is expected to become fixed over Greenland thus forcing the NAO deep into positive territory. The jet continues pound so hard at the Pacific Northwest that it is forcing a ridge to develop across the eastern United States and making the situation more dire than the zonal flow regime which was advertised in previous columns. The activity in the Pacific has a La Nina signature about it and the La Nina continues to strengthen in the central Equatorial Pacific. It would be rather fickle of me to blame the evolving situation entirely on La Nina but the ridging south of the Aleutian Islands and the heavy precipitation in the Pacific Northwest is certainly not a surprise given the recent development of La Nina. Arctic air can still involve itself in such a pattern but the bulk of the real chill will remain bottled up toward the pole or on the other hemisphere entirely like in Japan where record snows have been recorded. The situation isn’t being helped by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which is in the process of finally switching signs and becoming positive. A positive AO means the Jet Stream at high latitudes is less convoluted and less likely to transport arctic air southward. Cold air can certainly sneak into areas such as Northern New England but it will be an ongoing battle with the milder weather which will invariably be trying to work its way northward as long as this pattern persists.
When can we expect a change
In my last column I had mentioned that we might be in trouble until later January and that remains a reasonable expectation. To be frank, there are no signs of a change in the pattern fundamentals or teleconnection indices on the immediate horizon. Typically however, an anomalous pattern has a term limit of 3-4 weeks before giving way to something else. Many times we are surprised and there is a change or even a minor but significant tweek in the pattern sooner than expected which can drastically change the result for a place like Vermont. It is for this and no other reason why I am predicting some sort of change around January 22 nd but until then I would not be optimistic. Follwing MLK weekend, I would fully expect another warm up and potentially another event later next week consisting of a mixed bag of precipitation and maybe even rain. It is also almost likely that we will see more in the way of very mild weather including afternoons where the temperatures exceed 50 much like they will this upcoming Friday. Small victories can and will occur which will include snow and colder temperatures but the pattern without questions favors much above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall for the next 2 and probably 3 weeks.
Summarizing in a Sentence
The news isn’t good for the next three weeks and will include periods of very mild weather and rain.
