Crystal's Ski patrol report
Wow. Been forever since I posted here but this is a new update from a friend of a friend of a friend that somehow wound up at me. Not sure if anyone has seen this but here is some take on PNW snow report, but lets be real, no one knows whats going on so read with a grian of salt.
Cheers.
Ski Washington Powder Alert - Oct 2014
Ski Season Outlook 2014-15
Greetings from your Grand Poobah of Powder
Hope you had a great summer.
Wow, two fantastic summers in a row - I am lovin' life. And the last few days have been great, but the party is over this weekend.
You will be really feeling the change. Fall returns Sunday and Monday with rainy, cool and unsettled weather. Plus, the computer weather models are showing good chance of new snowfall upper slopes next week, by mid week!
Now the seasonal outlook...
First of all, there is generally no connection between a good or bad summer and what might happen in the winter. The main driver for nudging our winter weather is what is happening in the tropical Pacific. It's not a perfect fit, but can give us a clue. The possibilities are La Nina, El Nino or Neutral.
It all has to do with ocean temperatures and location of thunderstorm clusters in the tropics. Atmospheric circulation, in those unsettled areas of weather, reach north and cause the storm track off our coast to aim at different areas.
This fall/winter a weak El Nino is the forecast. Overall it means a tad drier and warmer. El Nino tends to slightly nudge the snowpack below normal - there, I said it. But there are some major caveats. This El Nino is weak, so the signal is weak, with high uncertainty - so confidence of the connection is low. Also, the El Nino signal will fade in the second half of the season.
There are no guarantees with any of the long range forecasts - remember what a dog (dry) last December (2013) was, but December 2012 was epic of epics - both extremes were unexpected.
Another important item is the El Nino predictor is based on the April 1st snowpack. Typically, snow pack is only 10-15% below normal during El Niño years, big deal. It's not the problem most people think, but there can be challenges.
One thing this outlook does doesn't tell us is anything about the character of how the snow will come in --- and that is all important in our quest for powder - that why I started this powder alert in 1996. It's all about the individual storms, and there will be storms.
I will have more updates ahead. Now is the time to get everything in order, as the season will be upon us soon. Here's to a Thanksgiving opening!
Sincerely,
Lawrence J Schick
Chief Meteorologist
