Worried about how things will be after tomorrow and wed. for Loveland Pass?
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Worried about how things will be after tomorrow and wed. for Loveland Pass?
In the meantime, consider a large weight of new snow coming in wet and getting colder with light to moderate winds on a surface of old snow or ground.Quote:
Originally Posted by CAIC
and consider the pitch you will be skiing on loveland pass, under aspects that will be cross loaded with snow.Quote:
Originally Posted by Summit
and consider the run outs of steeper terrain, and how likely they will be filled in with snow.
Statewide Avalanche Conditions
Issued: 10/06/2011 9:20 AM by Scott Toepfer *** I received this today. I think Scott has river on the brain ***
Expires: 10/31/2011 11:00 PM 2 2
Highlights
Our third October snow storm has started. A couple inches of snow is on the ground in the Northern San Juans. Significant snow will fall overnight and through Wednesday morning. Clearing skies late Wednesday will bring cold temperatures, slowly warming into the weekend. Earlier storms have left a shallow, weak snowpack on shady slopes and high elevations. That weak snow will not support the new snow, and we can expect avalanches both on the old snow and storm instabilities with in the new snow. Remember the early season mantra "if there is enough snow to ride, there is enough snow to slide." Early season avalanche incidents, and even fatalities, are typical. Unpack your avalanche brain as you get the rest of your winter gear ready.
We will update this Statewide Forecast as needed. Our daily Zone Forecasts will resume around mid-November, and daily weather forecasts resume on November 1. We are still collecting information. Please send us your observations and we'll keep the list of Field Reports and Avalanches current.
Weather Discussion
The jet stream is lining up in a favorable position over Colorado. Moisture is pumping up from the southwest, and a cold front is moving in from the north. These factors converge over Colorado Tuesday night and Wednesday, and will lead to a significant early season storm. Heaviest snowfall will be along the cold front as it moves south, with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour possible. The Elks, West Elks, and Grand Mesa could see over 18 inches of snow by Wednesday morning. On the Front Range, the cold front will sweep south along the Plains and drive an upslope over the foothills, with the heaviest snowfall below 11,000 feet. Enough will spill into Summit County that 12 or more inches of snow are possible. Less intense snowfall continues behind the front, winding down over the Northern Mountains Wednesday afternoon, and after dark in the Southern Mountains. Total snowfall accumulations will be around or under a foot in the San Juans. Winds will shift from the west-northwest to easterly after the front. Temperatures will be very cold as skies clear Wednesday night.
Snowpack & Avalanche Discussion
No avalanche incidents have been reported this season. Yet. Don't be the first. Observers reported a few natural avalanches in the San Juans and Elks following the mid-October storm. Expect many more following this storm.
Anticipation and excitement run high with early season storms. Everyone is eager to get out and play. Be sure to unpack and dust off your avalanche thinking, good travel practices, and safety equipment with the rest of you gear. It is common for October avalanches to catch people every season. An early season encounter with an avalanche will often come with a ride through rocks, downed timber, stumps, or other obstacles which can quickly bring an end to your riding season. Always think the consequences if you get caught and take a ride in an avalanche.
This will be the third October storm. Dustings in September, and early and mid-October storms, left a thin blanket of snow in the high country. On steep, shady slopes at high elevations that early season snow has faceted and become very weak. Other spots, the mild weather has allowed the snow to consolidate and form a smooth surface. Neither one is the best surface for a big dump of new snow.
This storm will bring several avalanche considerations. Wind slabs should be at the forefront of your considerations. West-northwest winds will drift the new snow and pile up thick windslabs. Winds will shift to the east after the cold front passes. Speeds will be less, so drifting will not be as extensive as earlier in the storm, but multiple layers of drifting will result. Expect both pockety, discontinuous slabs and widespread slabs. The slabs will be sitting on the old, faceted snow and avalanches will easily break to the ground.
Storm slabs are the next consideration. With the large accumulations of snow, storm slabs may form in wind-sheltered areas. Recall that "slabs" can be soft and powdery, if there is weaker snow underneath. Anticipate, and look for, subtle changes within the storm snow. We know there is weak, old snow underneath. Storm slabs can break much wider than you anticipate and take out entire slopes.
Fall and Early Winter Avalanche Safety
° Fall and a taste of winter have returned to Colorado’s high country. Snow began to stick on the higher terrain by mid-September. Every season people have encounters with wintertime slab avalanches as early as August or September. Anyone traveling in the mountains, including hikers, hunters, sledders, skiers, riders and ice climbers, needs to be aware of the avalanche threat as soon as snow starts to accumulate on steep slopes.
° People are often misled when they see grass and brush sticking out of the snow surface. You should start thinking about avalanches any time you have snow resting on a steep slope. Remember, all you need is a slab resting on a weak layer of snow. The ground can easily act as a bed surface, even if it’s only a few inches below the snow surface.
° Old summer snow fields can act as the perfect bed surface too. Hard frozen old snow with new snow on top are common culprits in early season avalanche incidents.
° Early in the snow season there is not much snow on the ground. This means that rocks and stumps are near the snow surface. If you get caught in an avalanche you might get tumbled through rocks, stumps, and downed timber. These obstacles can do great bodily harm to backcountry users traveling through them at high speeds. Knee pads, helmets and full body armor may not be a solution to this problem. Even a very small slide can cause great harm if the terrain is unfriendly.Don't let an early-season injury ruin your winter!
° Wind drifts will create thicker slabs. Strong winds can take a three inch snowstorm and quickly build an 18” wind slab. Areas with shallow snow may be very close to deep drifted areas. It may be quite easy to move from a very safe area to a very dangerous area without traveling very far. Wind drifts will be denser than the new snow and thick hard snow on light fluffy snow is a great setup for avalanching.
° Once the sun returns after a storm cycle and warm temperatures cause the new snow to melt, look to see where the pockets of snow remain. The snow that lingers in sheltered areas and shady slopes could be the weak layer after the next snowfall. These areas could also become recurring problem areas throughout the winter depending on how the winter snowpack develops.
° Pockets of instability can develop quickly above early season ice climbs. Climbers should know the terrain above their route as rapid warming or heavy wind loading can quickly work to build slab or loose snow avalanches which can nudge a precariously perched climber into a bad fall.
° Hunters traveling across the high country need to exercise greater caution on steep terrain (steeper than 30 degrees with accumulated snow) when crossing ridges from one valley to another
Good looking out guys.
Guess Darwin hasn't struck yet, i gave a ride to a bunch who rode all day Wed. without gear.