Risk Assessment--when to just say no.

first of all, when touring with a group you should feel free to speak you mind about the conditions and what you are uncomfortable with. if you can't do that then you should go with a different group. i like the idea of everyone being a group leader. route decisions are discussed and accepted by everone before we go. if one person says no go then we reassess the situation and find a route that everyone is comfortable with. that said, what determines what you are comfortable with? for me it is the consequences. what will happen if i fall? what will happen if it slides? if there is any questionable instability in the slope you need to think of what is below you. whether the avalanche comes from above or right where you are at you are likely headed down the fall line. if there is a cliff band then the consequences climb. trauma kills around a quarter of all avalanche victims. by putting yourself in a position to be swept off a cliff or through rocks/tree then you just raised your chances of dying from trauma. shallow snow packs have terrain features that may be hidden under the snowpack. these features may become a giant pinball field for a body in an avalanche. trees become baseball bats at around 20+ mph (~3.5 seconds in a slide) and likely areas to be buried deeply as the tree stops both you and the following snow stacks up. on an open slope you may have an abrupt change in slope angle at the bottom the snow will pile up very deep and quickly. no amount of swimming can prevent you being buried once you reach this portion of the runout. the same is true for a small cliff to flat transition. these are terrain traps. there are other types but the most notable is a gully. when looking down the slope do you see a place where all the snow will funnel? a chute or gully may be a good place to ski usually but not when you could be funneled down one and burried. on a large slide path that ends in a flat gully you could be buried 40+ feet deep with no chance of rescue. how about just traveling through a small gully with snow on the sides somewhere in the flats. if those sides are high enough and the snow can slide it can bury you very deeply. usuing one as a test slope should be done with caution.

there are a lot of times when you aren't quite sure about the stability. you may decide to ski anyway if the consequences aren't that high. you should always have a planned path out if something breaks. i usually ski cut the slope a few times before i commit. this works well for soft slabs and point release but is ineffective on hard slabs. know what you are dealing with. it is part of the risk. if a hard slab breaks on you, you will likely be already far onto it with much snow above you. it will break into chunks and you will have no chance to ski off of it after the initial seconds. a hard slab itself without rocks, trees or cliffs can kill you from trauma. don't mess with them.

picture from a colorado avy:
http://www.wildsnow.com/images/artic..._avy_betty.jpg

hard slab avy debris. notice the chunks still in the debris. imagine trying to ski that while it is still moving down slope.:
http://www.avalanche.org/~uac/photos...mit/Debris.jpg http://www.avalanche.org/~uac/photos...t/From_Top.jpg

photo by hacksaw:
http://www.ffme.fr/ski-alpinisme/niv...val/aval03.jpg

Risk = Consequences X the Probability that they will happen.

some people may be missing the hard reality of the consequences but i don't think that is always the case. the larger problem here may be that the probability is just vastly underestimated. we come up with an informal probability that makes to us by a complex process that we can't truely break down. the more informed you are the more accurate you can rate this. so what all goes into the formula? well it is everything you know about avalanches plus common sense. you can't be lacking in either department if you are going to try and out guess the snowpack, which you never will. the goal is to try to be as accurate as possible and be conservative with your decisions. if your probability rating is in the 30-50% range and you ski it regardeless then you are saying something. either your consequence assesment was low (small soft slab/favorable runout, etc) or you just had a huge mental lapse. this is all a delicate balance. you have to decide how much risk you are willing to take. until you have grown up, had children or had a tragic/near tragic experience then you are likely willing to accept more risk. this is either because you are an adrenalin junky or you just don't fully understand RISK yet.

Anyone here ever underestimated either the consequences or the probability that they will happen? i mean everyday things, not just avalanche. how did you misjudge and how did it make you act in the future.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AltaPowderDaze

.

some people may be missing the hard reality of the consequences but i don't think that is always the case. the larger problem here may be that the probability is just vastly underestimated. huge mental lapse

Anyone here ever underestimated either the consequences or the probability that they will happen? i mean everyday things, not just avalanche. how did you misjudge and how did it make you act in the future.

---

the biggest problem (not a good one) for our crew is not snowpack trivia or risk assessment .it is the stupid part where you find yourself racing the morning light . even though you have given yourself enough time to get up ,we should take the extra time and leave earlier. alot of times it hasnt been the risk ,it is how we managed it when we are in our zone thinking of our line not thinking about what and how you are going to do it safely with a crew .this is refering to your HUGE MENTAL LAPSE part .we learned to take the extra time getting there ,afterall if you dont even make it to the top then it was all for nothing . it was a great learning experience for everyone involved and those who were not .it was a live drill , real life situation the crew was flawless with emergency procedures .this incident was talked about with the group for future self resscue .along with the standered equipment , it was agreesd that radios ,easily accesed (not in your pack) are now being added. communication is the key to managing caos , other than not getting to that situation
knowledge of terrian , snow pack ,and the standerd search procedure and pattern is not enough for rescues in hair ball situations. this may be going off the subject sorry , but you know as well as i that in the wasatch it is not if ,but were and when will it will take place ... i hope that future classes will elaborate on this a little more ...... dont get around to reply much but use alot of ll you info you observations in assessing our planning.thanks again for all of your information i hope people will take the time to pay attn to them

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by knowone

the biggest problem (not a good one) for our crew is not snowpack trivia or risk assessment .it is the stupid part where you find yourself racing

---

human factors have been my downfall twice this year. it is the factor that effects those otherwise competent groups.

http://tetongravity.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22909

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by knowone

afterall if you dont even make it to the top then it was all for nothing .

---

be very careful with that thought process. goal orientation can be like putting the bliners on and missing several key red flags. it's tough but i have had to turn tail more than 10 times this year. i usually go with a goal but i try to keep as open of a mind as i can and assess along the way. sometimes summiting or skiing that couloir was just not ment to be that day.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AltaPowderDaze

human factors have been my downfall twice this year. it is the factor that effects those otherwise competent groups.

---

do you think this is overlooked more often than not(human factors)? risk factor seems to be the one part everyone is willing to accept,(regardless the level of skill involved avy and ski) up until the part of a rescue

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AltaPowderDaze

be very careful with that thought process. goal orientation can be like putting the bliners on and missing several key red flags. it's tough but i have had to turn tail more than 10 times this year. i usually go with a goal but i try to keep as open of a mind as i can and assess along the way. sometimes summiting or skiing that couloir was just not ment to be that day.

---

very true ..........yes, (i didnt elaborate on that i felt i was all over in my reply) i was more implying that you have to get there saftly first in order to ski ......then its the part of getting saftely down which ever way you might have to go .even if it is down the boot pack

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by knowone

do you think this is overlooked more often than not(human factors)? risk factor seems to be the one part everyone is willing to accept,(regardless the level of skill involved avy and ski) up until the part of a rescue

---

the risk factor is sometimes ignored until one wakes up but the human factor just goes unnoticed until you finally see it in action. even after that you miss the signs.


where i run into the most trouble is after the most dangerous part of the tour or the usual goal. i sometimes lower my guard more after i think i have crossed the crux of the tour. so this means on the way out or skiing access slopes inbetween goals. i often don't take the time to fully assess those slopes but instead opt to take the less desireable (for skiing enjoyment) route on the slope for safety reasons.

in short, it's the many human factors that lead to a series of little mistakes. sometimes those mistakes get lumped together and viewed as one large mistake when an accident happens but most accident investigations show a series leading to the obvious error.