Northern San Juan BC Snowpack

I'm going to be in Telluride next week.
Hoping to do some BC, if conditions allow for it.

CAIC has been rating the danger as considerate on eastern aspects above and at treeline, which pretty much covers the Bear Creek area.

Last week it was low below and moderate at and above treeline.

I see there haven't been any huge amounts of snowfall, and the temperature appears to be stable, so am I correct in assuming that the upgraded danger is due to windloaded deposits from a strong northwesterly wind? Have there been slides in BC?

My decision based on the data I see is to not go into Bear Creek if conditions do not improve by next week. If anyone can tell me what's happening out there first hand that would be nice. Thanks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ivan Oder

I'm going to be in Telluride next week.
Hoping to do some BC, if conditions allow for it.

CAIC has been rating the danger as considerate on eastern aspects above and at treeline, which pretty much covers the Bear Creek area.

Last week it was low below and moderate at and above treeline.

I see there haven't been any huge amounts of snowfall, and the temperature appears to be stable, so am I correct in assuming that the upgraded danger is due to windloaded deposits from a strong northwesterly wind? Have there been slides in BC?

My decision based on the data I see is to not go into Bear Creek if conditions do not improve by next week. If anyone can tell me what's happening out there first hand that would be nice. Thanks.

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There was over 1 1/2 feet in 48 hours last week and driving over Lizardhead yesterday there was plenty of evidence of wind packing (3 guys were moving pretty well with kites as well).

I think the low rating last week was off too. Telluride region has picked up 19 inches. Some wind. The snow pack is shit this year. Any new snow or wind is going to spike the rating. Until we start getting into the moisture flow I just cant trust the snowpack. Ive done a 4-5 laps in LBC this year and the skiing has been good but still very thin(avy danger can be minimal with the right rout.) Im sure people are hitting the uppers with success but it really is a game of russian roulette. Im going to be doing some bc in the next few days and will report back with my findings
deeppo

Well today's forecast indicates variable terrain, with some slabs on
easily broken depth hoar while others are strong -- on the same slope.

So the overall snowpack -- hard to predict, not good.

I've never been to the Bear Creek area, just looking at it from topographic
maps, Google Earth, and tellurideoffpiste photos, trying to plan potential
routes and looking for terrain traps, possible trigger points, slope shapes etc...

Any recommendations for a safe, less complex terrain route through here?

I was thinking the backside of Palmyra Peak into Lena Basin and around,
following the creek down, avoiding any steep slopes but essentially moving
through a runout trap. (Crowds above on steeps will affect decision here.)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ivan Oder

Well today's forecast indicates variable terrain, with some slabs on
easily broken depth hoar while others are strong -- on the same slope.

So the overall snowpack -- hard to predict, not good.

I've never been to the Bear Creek area, just looking at it from topographic
maps, Google Earth, and tellurideoffpiste photos, trying to plan potential
routes and looking for terrain traps, possible trigger points, slope shapes etc...

Any recommendations for a safe, less complex terrain route through here?

I was thinking the backside of Palmyra Peak into Lena Basin and around,
following the creek down, avoiding any steep slopes but essentially moving
through a runout trap. (Crowds above on steeps will affect decision here.)

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Palmyra is still closed so access off the peak will be a no go. Thats pretty steep terrain(40+). If you are thinking upper bear creek there is no way to avoid terrain traps. The terrain is very complex. People are skiing it with some success but you will be skiing avalanche terrain that has high consequence if it runs(most runs you are skiing East to north to west(you need to end up on the west to avoid big cliffs)
I skied waterfall canyon yesterday near ophir. Snow was very thin. Average snow pack was around 30 inches. The bottom 20 inches was pure sugar with the upper snowpack being recrystallized powder, some sun crust, some wind crust and even a little hard slab. Overall the skiing was ok. Snowpack did not show to many signs of instability but I was on a well skied rout. If we do not get any snow upper bear creek will probably have some safe options.
deeppo

Thanks for the update deeppo. I should be in the area day after tomorrow so we'll see what happens in the next few days.

Just a slight update. Last week I skied Nirvana(east facing at treeline) trees. Snow was around 30 inches deep of totally faceted snow. Skiing ranged from poor to heinous. Snowpack was either faceted to the ground or wind crusted or sun crusted. Been hitting LBC. Still very thin but skiing better. New snow so far is only 8 inches but it is currently snowing. I have no trust in this snowpack and feel that it will remain poor until the spring unless it snows a shitload
deeppo

The shit's about to hit the fan here me thinks!

Stuck at work today. But 11 new overnight. 3 feet + for Telluride and the caic is saying that most areas of the n. san juans have received 50"+. Snow pack seems very reactive danger over the past three days has been extreme, High, high. Hopefully we will get a large natural cycle to clear some slopes but it never seems to happen that way.

Edit- Well I managed to get a couple of laps in. It was the deepest day of the season in lbc. Easy foot to 18+.

Just my luck, 3 feet the day AFTER I leave. Dammit. Had fun though.

Well,
I had a pretty close call out the gate yesterday. There was a party of 5 in front of my party of 2. What I did not realize is that the party of 5 split up into two groups(after they had skied the first pitch). We let the group get one stage in front of us. The rout that we skied was delta to d and d. Three members of the group where skiing the same and the most conservative line of d and d while two others traversed to a bigger line that is above. When I got down to an area called the diving bored there was one group of the 3 that had said that the slope had just slid. Both other members that where with him had just started a search while the other 2 where not in contact. The slide was very large and to the ground(I think the caic is saying 750 feet wide by 850 long-ends in a major terrain trap by 3-4 feet deep. Id say the crown was more in the 4-6 feet deep). I skied down to the deposition zone and commenced search. No singles where heard and after 10 minutes we saw the two skiers above the slide. Luckily for them they had triggered the slide from the bench before they had started down the pitch. Avy rating on the slope we skied was considerable. I knew there was risk with the slope but felt if we took the conservative rout down it could be done safely. Obviously I underestimated the danger. Im not sure how communication was between the party of 5 that had split. Just another reminder of how crappy the snow pack is when it slides to the ground in feb.
be safe. I think Ill stay on the resort till spring
deeppo

Pic of the slide. Not taken by me.
Deeppo