Is snowforecast.com reliable?

I know its predicting the ever changing winds, precipitation, temperature, and clashing weather systems over a huge plot of land - so i appreciate the effort of all weather people. But still, for the past several years i get psyched reading their snow accumulation predictions and more often then not, im disappointed.

Making a forecast aint easy, and to some of you it can be an art, but for the dumb wit i am (i know theres a lot of us) - whats the best place to find snowfall predictions for the mountains?

I find their prediction of the storms' timing is usually on, but their amounts are not very accurate at all.

Rick Santorum is punishing us for not paying for our forecasts

http://www.screenhead.com/wp-content...k-santorum.jpg

Seriously the NWS is all you need and is normally all that any other forecasters use as a basis for their forecast product.

Where are you in the "west"?

In my short experience with snowforecast.com, their forecasts seem to be double of what areas actually end up with. I've also seen forecasts get shafted from something decent to something near minimal within twelve hours before the storm arrives.

In addition to other sources, I use this as a gauge for ppt:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

Shit, there is snowforecast.com and a snow-forecast.com

snow-forecast is pretty good, that how I voted. However I always get the names confused. I've looked at the snowforecast a few times to compare this fall (nov and dec) and they were totally off and unrealiable.

If you combine the information from the NOAA satellite photo's and the "snowforecast" You can get a pretty keen idea of what's up... If you know a thing or two. Sometimes in the Rockies the micro climate's that develop... "Lake Effect" in the Wasatch, "Alberta Clippers" on the East side of the Continental Divide in the Northren Rockies, Shout out to Bridger... "Sneaker Cells" out of the Snake River Palteau, "Pineapple Express" across the Desert to San Jaun's.... These are the finest works of God's and can't be predicted spot on. The trick is to not get your hopes up and enjoy the Blessings when they are bestowed.

speaking for snow-forecast.com experience...

in the alps, every nook and valley around the corner has it's own microclimate. so getting the prediction spot on for a particular spot is impossible. it does well for general, regional-wide predictions. having said that, it also depends on the type of storm approaching. a strong cold front from the north is generally more predictable than a wobbly low from the south. so the type of storm factors into their accuracy.

also, they uses the same source data as the NWS (I believe) and all they do is overlay that data on topography maps, adjust for elevation, and determine the snow/rain lines. so they themselves are not generating the forecast, but merely presenting it in a pretty repackaged product. so to start bashing the service as unreliable, well, just go back to the source and bash them instead.

i've explained it this way before:
4-6 days - simply tells you that something might be coming
3 days - tells you that something is coming
2 days - tells you where it is coming
1 day - tells you how much

generally speaking of course.

obviously the closer you get to D-day, the better it is. people tend to forget that weather is highly variable and even today extremely difficult to predict out farther than 3 days.

.02

Some of their listings are funny
http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Nun-Kun
check out "resort info"

I like NOAA's forecast, especially Winter Storm Warnings. They usually get snowfall totals pretty close and also tell you which faces will receive the most snow (or you could just look at the wind direction..)

The NOAA forecasters are generally pretty good at interpreting the relevant models for the mtns in Colorado. I have noticed that they seem to have a better grip on the orographic component for the E San Juan regions (so Wolf Creek Pass specifically) this year. Where as in past years, with a Pineapple Express (deep SW flow over the E San Juans) their snowfall predictions were always 50% or lower of what actually happened, this year they've been on the money (sometimes predicting 20-30 inches overnight...which actually happened a number of times). Whether they have a nested orographic model, or are just using their local knowledge, I don't know...but its good.

The Pueblo office (which does Wolf Creek) seems to at least try to forecast snow totals a few days out (to the best of their ability), while the Denver office (Vail Pass, etc.) gives snowfall totals only a day or maybe two out...which I find annoying when you're planning ahead. An educated guess is better than nothing I think.

Confidence for a storm can be found by seeing if the different models agree with one another and if they change over 12 hr intervals or not (NOAA website has this stuff..or UNISYS). Also, reading the Forecast Summary is helpful, since the NOAA peeps will usually spell out their confidence for a given storm.

CAIC is also good, but I don't like snowforecast.com at all. The region I care about seems to be just linked up to model output with no idea of the confidence.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jce338

I like NOAA's forecast, especially Winter Storm Warnings. They usually get snowfall totals pretty close and also tell you which faces will receive the most snow (or you could just look at the wind direction..)

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For those not knowing...in order of dumpage vs wind direction

NW=Steamboat, Breck favored...some may fly over Vail to Loveland. If its a southern storm w/ NW flow...Silverton gets it

W=Vail, Copper...I 70 in general...Monarch, Aspen

W-SW=Beaver Creek, Wolf Creek

SW=Pack your bags and head to Wolf Creek

upslope=Eldora powder hr (hasn't really happened this yr). Usually best if the low sits SE on Denver, spinning moist, Gulf of Mex air to Eldo. A high pressure sitting NE of Denver is a cold, drier upslope. Both = severe dumpage (the seven footer yrs ago)

Nuttin' happens w/o water vapor so google water vapor unisys to see if the flow is moist or not

My 2 cents

Snow forecast is extremely accurate in predicting trends in Bariloche. Wind speed and snowfall totals, vary, but when they say it going to snow, it almost always does.